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Post by captainconfident on Oct 7, 2014 18:22:10 GMT
A rated 8110 ended this evening when their rate hit 9.5%
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Post by goldservice on Oct 7, 2014 18:39:30 GMT
All this talk about the early enders has them cowering in the bushes I think, I haven't snagged one so far this week. This afternoon, the first A or A+ early ender in October, 8110 A but at 'only' 10.9% max.
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Post by goldservice on Oct 7, 2014 18:45:26 GMT
Based on your sample, there is no statistical significance in the days of the week that these early enders occur. This is because the sample size is so small, that random clustering will overshadow any statistical significance. For example, if a rolled a dice 24 times, I may get the following distribution: 1: 3 times 2: 2 times 3: 8 times 4: 4 times 5: 0 times 6: 7 times Would we conclude that the dice is biased towards 3 and 6, and against 5? If I rolled it a further 24 times and received the following distribution: 1: 2 times 2: 4 times 3: 2 times 4: 4 times 5: 4 times 6: 8 times What would I conclude? As I said, the sample looks too small. But can someone who is statistically numerate do the chi-squared thingy or whatever is appropriate and tell me how many months and data points would be significant?
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Post by goldservice on Oct 10, 2014 12:15:27 GMT
Interesting indeed. A few thoughts- 1. If you read the borrower manual (which I'd recommend) you see they control the closure. ... Thanks - have read the manual at last. It says ‘The auction runs for a few days up to a maximum of 14 days. If you need the funds sooner, you can end the auction and accept your loan as soon as it’s 100% funded.’ and ‘As soon as your loan’s 100% funded, you can accept your loan online at any time until the end of the listing period. You then have up to 5 working days to accept.’ In this case, why do we see virtually no early enders outside office hours?
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ianb
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Post by ianb on Oct 10, 2014 13:06:28 GMT
Maybe because after ending it, to get the money theres a load of stuff they need to do like arranging direct debits, exchanging bank details and signing the paperwork with FC which all needs interaction with them ?
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Post by pepperpot on Oct 10, 2014 13:16:10 GMT
No, they do happen, I've had a loan end and get drawndown in the space of minutes, late in the evening i.e. 10/11pm. As common as hen's teeth though.
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blender
Member of DD Central
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Post by blender on Oct 10, 2014 15:01:09 GMT
Interesting indeed. A few thoughts- 1. If you read the borrower manual (which I'd recommend) you see they control the closure. ... ... In this case, why do we see virtually no early enders outside office hours? Probably because the borrowers mostly work office hours?
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Post by goldservice on Oct 13, 2014 8:15:35 GMT
blender - I considered that but then I thought of the business people that I know: they are too busy running their businesses during office hours. Paperwork like loan applications would be dealt with outside office hours. Perhaps the explanation is that FC has to process the borrower’s request to start the acceptance process and so it won’t actually happen until the FC office is next open. That’s why I originally asked if any borrower is reading this forum and able to confirm this theory?
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Post by goldservice on Nov 1, 2014 12:57:19 GMT
 Updated graph that now includes 10 early enders in October for A/A+ loans Notes 1 Apart from the final week, early enders at high rates in October were scarce. Most earlies were on their final day when the highest rate was around 11% +/- 0.2%. 2 Wed/Thu no longer stands out as less common but the end of the month is reinforced as more common. 3 I should have said before that the graph ignores early enders below 10.9% for A and below 10.5% for A+. 4 Another auction back from the dead: on 16/10 at 14:00 approx 8358A+ ended with average 12.4% and max > 14%; it had restarted by 12:00 on 17/10. I’m bored with chasing early enders so I have put my blunderbuss away.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Nov 1, 2014 15:17:06 GMT
Yep, they quite often don't stay caught if you do catch them. I only count my chickens when they are actually in the pot.
Chasing them manually is very time consuming .. chasing them with a bot, not quite as bad (although keeping a bot aligned with FCs site changes, and un-changes, and changes again, and explaining to it that an 80k auction might be 83.34k, and '1% cashback' might show up anytime after an auction is listed, etc. etc takes more time than one might like). 8<.
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Post by goldservice on Nov 1, 2014 17:42:38 GMT
Yep, they quite often don't stay caught if you do catch them. I only count my chickens when they are actually in the pot. I've included only accepted loans, if that's what you mean by 'in the pot'.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Nov 1, 2014 18:49:58 GMT
Yes, that's what I meant - early closed and then accepted. Your stats show only those, but there were quite a few 'early closers' which turned out to be 'slightly later re-openers'. 8>. Annoying when you think you have scored some loan parts at 14.9%, only to have them vanish. There are even a few 'early close but subsequently not accepted', which is even weirder..
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nick
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Post by nick on May 21, 2015 9:07:23 GMT
Has anyone looked at the rate of early closers that make to loan drawdown more recently? I've noted a lot more instances of loans disappearing on the final day before the end of the auction. However, its not immediately obvious why the loan has disappeared, eg pulled by borrower or closed early, and if closed early, whether the loan was actually drawn down. I know that Goldservice shared some data on A/A+ early closers in late 2014. Has anyone looked at this more recently?
If not, I will probably have a go trying to track loan requests posted to those that actually make through to final auction time and to draw down. Is there anyway of working out if the auction closed early on the day without checking at auction time - I can't see this info in the loan book?
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Post by Deleted on May 21, 2015 9:22:11 GMT
I've been tracking the highest last 20 rates for A and A+ for the last few months as a more money focused element of early enders, basically if they end up at low figures they didn't end early (or early enough to offer any $). That suggests a very gentle rise in numbers since Feb but only just significant
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oldgrumpy
Member of DD Central
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Post by oldgrumpy on May 21, 2015 9:24:00 GMT
There is a laborious way, not necessarily accurate to the nearest minute. Look at the all bids list to see when the first bids appeared, then check when the last bid was listed to see if it is seven days later.
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