oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Oct 10, 2014 16:25:28 GMT
So after the new system goes live, how will we settle shadow bids? As described there'll be an option against each shadow bid in the list. I've thought of something which may be of concern when the first small non-auction loan eventually gets close to drawdown and existing shadow-bids or new AI settings come into play. Scenario: GreedyGrumps wants £2000 of of a £50K loan. Everybody else wants some too, so the AI algorithm is going to apportion fairly when the time comes. Shortly (at least two days I hope) before the loan goes live, we will be informed that the loan has drawn down and will be on the aftermarket on a certain day at a certain time. We will need to put money in our accounts. But how much? GG will need to put £2000 in his account but he might well only be allocated £200 by the AI system. This possibility if repeated for every new loan could well become very annoying... no purpose in perpetually transferring excessive amounts of cash every time a new loan launches. Will we have any idea before the loan launches, of how much we are likely to be allocated? This will only happen occasionally on small loans, but the possibility is there. Answer not required in a hurry - it won't happen for a few weeks.
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Post by chris on Oct 10, 2014 16:40:07 GMT
As described there'll be an option against each shadow bid in the list. I've thought of something which may be of concern when the first small non-auction loan eventually gets close to drawdown and existing shadow-bids or new AI settings come into play. Scenario: GreedyGrumps wants £2000 of of a £50K loan. Everybody else wants some too, so the AI algorithm is going to apportion fairly when the time comes. Shortly (at least two days I hope) before the loan goes live, we will be informed that the loan has drawn down and will be on the aftermarket on a certain day at a certain time. We will need to put money in our accounts. But how much? GG will need to put £2000 in his account but he might well only be allocated £200 by the AI system. This possibility if repeated for every new loan could well become very annoying... no purpose in perpetually transferring excessive amounts of cash every time a new loan launches. Will we have any idea before the loan launches, of how much we are likely to be allocated? This will only happen occasionally on small loans, but the possibility is there. Answer not required in a hurry - it won't happen for a few weeks. I'm working on a method for estimating supply of loan parts vs demand, but once you see the full system in action you'll understand why that's very hard to do with any level of accuracy. On the supply side the underwriter portion is easy to calculate, and on the demand side you know how many people are interested in a loan and how much spare cash they have in their account, but transient demand where people will transfer in funds, random sales by lenders shifting their position, and the whole auto diversification feature make a true picture impossible to show in full with complete accuracy. This is intended for the admin team to be able to see but I'll see which bits can be adapted for the front end as I agree it's useful information. This will probably wait until our UX guy has started at the end of the month so will be a handful of weeks after launch. It is anticipated that as with Zopa and RateSetter, amongst others including with AI now, you'll need some measure of cash available in the system in order to pick up those less frequently available loan units. For big loans with plenty of supply you'll still be transferring in as you need rather than pre-empting it and having idle time.
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Oct 10, 2014 16:51:58 GMT
I thought it might be tricky.
Speculation on picking up the occasional "rare-bit" from the "back catalogue" as it appears always did require having a bit of cash lurking. Can't get out of that.
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sqh
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Post by sqh on Oct 10, 2014 16:58:07 GMT
I've thought of something which may be of concern when the first small non-auction loan eventually gets close to drawdown and existing shadow-bids or new AI settings come into play. Scenario: GreedyGrumps wants £2000 of of a £50K loan. Everybody else wants some too, so the AI algorithm is going to apportion fairly when the time comes. Shortly (at least two days I hope) before the loan goes live, we will be informed that the loan has drawn down and will be on the aftermarket on a certain day at a certain time. We will need to put money in our accounts. But how much? GG will need to put £2000 in his account but he might well only be allocated £200 by the AI system. This possibility if repeated for every new loan could well become very annoying... no purpose in perpetually transferring excessive amounts of cash every time a new loan launches. Will we have any idea before the loan launches, of how much we are likely to be allocated? This will only happen occasionally on small loans, but the possibility is there. Answer not required in a hurry - it won't happen for a few weeks. I'm working on a method for estimating supply of loan parts vs demand, but once you see the full system in action you'll understand why that's very hard to do with any level of accuracy. On the supply side the underwriter portion is easy to calculate, and on the demand side you know how many people are interested in a loan and how much spare cash they have in their account, but transient demand where people will transfer in funds, random sales by lenders shifting their position, and the whole auto diversification feature make a true picture impossible to show in full with complete accuracy. This is intended for the admin team to be able to see but I'll see which bits can be adapted for the front end as I agree it's useful information. This will probably wait until our UX guy has started at the end of the month so will be a handful of weeks after launch. It is anticipated that as with Zopa and RateSetter, amongst others including with AI now, you'll need some measure of cash available in the system in order to pick up those less frequently available loan units. For big loans with plenty of supply you'll still be transferring in as you need rather than pre-empting it and having idle time. Very interesting point. Of course if GG knows he is only getting £200 then he might up his stake to £20,000 to make sure he gets a lions share.
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Oct 10, 2014 17:01:20 GMT
Very interesting point. Of course if GG knows he is only getting £200 then he might up his stake to £20,000 to make sure he gets a lions share.
Yes, cousin GG might try, but AC could specify a max of £2000, or £500, or whatever for the first 24 hours, as they do now. 
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Post by chris on Oct 10, 2014 17:23:22 GMT
I'm working on a method for estimating supply of loan parts vs demand, but once you see the full system in action you'll understand why that's very hard to do with any level of accuracy. On the supply side the underwriter portion is easy to calculate, and on the demand side you know how many people are interested in a loan and how much spare cash they have in their account, but transient demand where people will transfer in funds, random sales by lenders shifting their position, and the whole auto diversification feature make a true picture impossible to show in full with complete accuracy. This is intended for the admin team to be able to see but I'll see which bits can be adapted for the front end as I agree it's useful information. This will probably wait until our UX guy has started at the end of the month so will be a handful of weeks after launch. It is anticipated that as with Zopa and RateSetter, amongst others including with AI now, you'll need some measure of cash available in the system in order to pick up those less frequently available loan units. For big loans with plenty of supply you'll still be transferring in as you need rather than pre-empting it and having idle time. Very interesting point. Of course if GG knows he is only getting £200 then he might up his stake to £20,000 to make sure he gets a lions share. I don't think it's likely that a lender is going to tie up £20k for several days for a £200 investment, but if people try to game the system like that and it appears to work then we'll put extra measures in to guard against it.
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Oct 10, 2014 17:32:47 GMT
Very interesting point. Of course if GG knows he is only getting £200 then he might up his stake to £20,000 to make sure he gets a lions share. I don't think it's likely that a lender is going to tie up £20k for several days for a £200 investment, but if people try to game the system like that and it appears to work then we'll put extra measures in to guard against it. Will there be anything like the current pre-bidding? That gives a very good indicator of the level of interest in a given loan, and should make it obvious whether pre-bids can be filled completely from the available loan or will need to be scaled back in some way when the loan eventually does become available.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 10, 2014 17:39:18 GMT
Imposter!!! That's clearly a different ape....  PS I've put your missing apostrophe in - must maintain standards You don't want to go there. It really is the thin end of the grammatical wedge. PS: From which greengrocer's do you get the bananas?
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Post by chris on Oct 10, 2014 17:40:42 GMT
I don't think it's likely that a lender is going to tie up £20k for several days for a £200 investment, but if people try to game the system like that and it appears to work then we'll put extra measures in to guard against it. Will there be anything like the current pre-bidding? That gives a very good indicator of the level of interest in a given loan, and should make it obvious whether pre-bids can be filled completely from the available loan or will need to be scaled back in some way when the loan eventually does become available. As described earlier there will be the opportunity to set an AI target (i.e. manually bid) whilst a loan is in preview (fully funded, awaiting drawdown). That'll be the equivalent of a pre-bid. However that's not the only way to invest in a given loan so it won't be definitive. Indeed over time we expect manual investors to be in the minority.
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Oct 10, 2014 21:32:32 GMT
PS I've put your missing apostrophe in - must maintain standards You don't want to go there. It really is the thin end of the grammatical wedge. PS: From which greengrocer's do you get the bananas? Very astutely phrased (and punctuated) question ! With or (without) the apostrophe the answer is the same. 
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Oct 11, 2014 7:59:36 GMT
Have you asked lenders if they want manual bidding abolished ? I suspect it would be a resounding NO. You have manual bidding on loans, you won't have manual bidding on individual loan units. That is more control than RateSetter for example and they're doing OK Completely different, as you well know. They have a provision fund so it matters much less what you are invested in.
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Post by chris on Oct 11, 2014 8:02:37 GMT
You have manual bidding on loans, you won't have manual bidding on individual loan units. That is more control than RateSetter for example and they're doing OK Completely different, as you well know. They have a provision fund so it matters much less what you are invested in. We're not taking away your ability to choose which loans to invest in.
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Oct 11, 2014 8:06:14 GMT
...It is anticipated that as with Zopa and RateSetter, amongst others including with AI now, you'll need some measure of cash available in the system in order to pick up those less frequently available loan units. For big loans with plenty of supply you'll still be transferring in as you need rather than pre-empting it and having idle time. Will we be able to have separate buckets so we can leave £X on the system waiting for the juicy bits, while adding lump sums for the big loans as needed? A big problem with the existing AI for me (which led me to turn it off after a while) is I cannot do this. Edit: Thanks for the reply to my previous post. My point was simply that it's an inappropriate comparison. I'm sure I can learn to live with the AI, if it is easy to control it so that it does not do things I don't want it to do.
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Post by chris on Oct 11, 2014 8:09:35 GMT
...It is anticipated that as with Zopa and RateSetter, amongst others including with AI now, you'll need some measure of cash available in the system in order to pick up those less frequently available loan units. For big loans with plenty of supply you'll still be transferring in as you need rather than pre-empting it and having idle time. Will we be able to have separate buckets so we can leave £X on the system waiting for the juicy bits, while adding lump sums for the big loans as needed? A big problem with the existing AI for me (which led me to turn it off after a while) is I cannot do this. To a degree. You'll have unallocated cash, which is where your transfers end up. Then you have a bucket for manual investment, and one each for any automatic investments you set up. We don't yet let you have multiple buckets for manual investments as that would have been too complicated user interface wise. Separating unallocated cash from funds allocated to manual investments is already a challenge in that regard.
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Oct 11, 2014 8:21:56 GMT
I don't quite get that, it sounds very inefficient to have a separate cash bucket for each AI mandate.
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