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Post by hostile17 on Mar 24, 2020 11:12:14 GMT
*tumbleweed*
It sounds like round 13 is not with us and is overdue*...
*I know there's no official due, but based upon previous timings.
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Post by rainydaze on Mar 25, 2020 4:22:39 GMT
I'm assuming (hoping) the whole sell process is something thats automated ? And staff on site is a minimal requirement at house FC (?)..
Rounds 11 & 12 please put me down as 3/3 and 13/3.
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Post by dogeared on Mar 25, 2020 12:50:28 GMT
Have the payments stopped or are people not updating?
13 days now since the last one I had.
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Post by hostile17 on Mar 25, 2020 21:35:14 GMT
As I said two above, round 13 is 'overdue'.
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lewis
Posts: 22
Likes: 17
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Post by lewis on Mar 26, 2020 16:29:50 GMT
Certainly seems to have slowed. Hopefully not stopped...
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richv
Posts: 42
Likes: 11
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Post by richv on Mar 26, 2020 19:39:02 GMT
Certainly seems to have slowed. Hopefully not stopped... No sales recorded since the 19th. I think that's the longest we have ever had to wait. I get that there are probably few if any people investing new money now. But is FC still starting new loans? anybody still lending on hear who could tell us? I would have thought that there would be sufficient number of old investors who have the 'reinvest function' switched on to to at least buy some old loans, if all new lending had stopped. By my calculation 2019: Loans under management went form £2,208m to £2,583m so an increase of £375m While loans new lending was £1,560. Therefor £1,560m - £375m = £1,185m was repaid (Minus defaults plus interest and recoverys which largely cancil out) So about 3 million a day! is it all being withdrawn?
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benaj
Member of DD Central
Posts: 5,032
Likes: 1,630
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Post by benaj on Mar 27, 2020 7:28:18 GMT
Another round this morning, let's buy some toilet rolls.
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dorset
Member of DD Central
Posts: 281
Likes: 187
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Post by dorset on Mar 27, 2020 10:29:28 GMT
Sale on 25/3 with the previous one on 10/3. That's 15 days.
A race to the door. Once the recession really hits then the FC loan book will collapse I'm afraid. What I cannot understand is who on earth is buying the stuff that I am selling.
Interesting that FC seems to be refusing to update its lifetime default rates statistics page. Last update on 2018 loan book only shows defaults after 12 months whereas we should be getting default rate after 14 months by now.
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richv
Posts: 42
Likes: 11
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Post by richv on Mar 28, 2020 15:13:01 GMT
Sale on 25/3 with the previous one on 10/3. That's 15 days. A race to the door. Once the recession really hits then the FC loan book will collapse I'm afraid. What I cannot understand is who on earth is buying the stuff that I am selling. Interesting that FC seems to be refusing to update its lifetime default rates statistics page. Last update on 2018 loan book only shows defaults after 12 months whereas we should be getting default rate after 14 months by now. Hi Dorset, FC normally updates there states page every 3 months with the quarterly fingers, so this is normal for them. why they don't update them as soon as they have the numbers as you say is frustrating and would be a small but easy way for them to regain trust of their lenders. it would also be possible for them to show loans grouped in units smaller than years, half years, Quarters or even months, and that way the numbers would/could be much more up to date, after all jan and Feb 2019 are over a year old now so showing us the default rate for them at 12 months, would show if FCs calmed 'improvements in Dew Diligence' had helped. As for who is still buying, I suspect it will mostly be people who already have accountants, and they are set to Auto re-invest. by my back of an envelope calculations about £3 million, is repaid by FC borrowers in an average day. so even in only 1/3 or lenders are reinvesting, then that would be a million a day.
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 30, 2020 3:24:17 GMT
Another round this morning, let's buy some toilet rolls. benaj would you mind checking your transaction log whether that was a genuine sale please, and not just an early repayment of principal. It's odd that the selling system froze up after 19th March, with the sole exception of your report. It would be nice to pinpoint when it did freeze up. Later: Ok, I see dorset also had a sale on 25/3, so they are still selling... just.
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supyk
Posts: 25
Likes: 22
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Post by supyk on Mar 30, 2020 14:19:13 GMT
Recent Loan Comments today show a bunch of downgrades due to cancelled direct debits. Not really surprised, but it's not looking good - might well be a perfect storm of fewer investors and more sellers freezing the sales queue, and slowdown in repayments as well.
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Post by dazp70 on Mar 30, 2020 14:50:08 GMT
Massive downgrade today 6% of portfolio gone bad.
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lewis
Posts: 22
Likes: 17
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Post by lewis on Mar 30, 2020 16:22:24 GMT
Just over 5% gone bad today. Not good but not a surprise.
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 30, 2020 18:16:02 GMT
Mathematics, the science of patterns... Back in December, just two days into the new selling system, I stuck my neck out and predicted a potential number of sales cycles in the first 120 days. Nobody is more surprised than me how close I came! It's very early days, with a very limited dataset, but they've now serviced approximately 1/3rd of the entire six month sales queue, suggesting a full cycle around all sellers will take very roughly 8-10 days. Let's say 9 days. Most sales seem have been around the 1.2% mark (ignoring the small sums repaid at 70%, etc). Extrapolating from these very approximate figures would suggest the full 120-day sale season might see 120/9 = 13 sale cycles. Leading to 13 x 1.2% = 15.6% returned per season. Roughly 1/6th. So you might get your entire pot back in 6 seasons, i.e. 2 years. Obviously this very rough model makes a LOT of assumptions, some of which will be wide of the mark, but I found it interesting to muse on, so thought I'd share. We can refine as we go. It should be said that without criston 's front page work, we wouldn't currently have any idea of repayment time. Would have been spot on too, had FC not suddenly frozen sales after 19th (or 26th) March. Post me your Lotto numbers on a £20 note and I will predict your chances...
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Post by natasha1 on Mar 30, 2020 19:06:39 GMT
Has FC cancelled all sales form 19th March?
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