dorset
Member of DD Central
Posts: 281 
Likes: 187
|
Post by dorset on Apr 18, 2019 16:52:25 GMT
I am experiencing a surge in defaults – is this the onset of the big FC crash?
I had 102 defaults in 2018 and only managed to make a nominal return but no loss of capital.
So far in 2019 I have had 32 defaults and am now showing a capital loss. All loans are pre Sept 2017 as I am running out my portfolio. Loans have been well diversified – 1650 or so at my peak and now down to about 700.
As the economy has not tanked in this period the only reason I can see for the surge is FC taking on loads of c**p prior to the IPO and throwing DD out of the window.
On a positive note just had a full recovery on 6377 plus my lifetime earnings on FC (since 2011) are now just short of outstanding capital. I await with interest the loan book stats as 2019 progresses.
|
|
ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,814
Likes: 1,092
|
Post by ashtondav on Apr 19, 2019 14:09:20 GMT
I just started with FC when they introduced the black box. My first deposit was October 2017. My annualised return is 5.8% Vs an estimated 7% and my latest tax return shows an annual return after fees and BD of about 5%+. I've got 44 bad debts on 730 loan parts. At this stage i'm still reinvesting capital and interest but i'm keeping an eagle eye on the trend in my annualised return.
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 10,019
Likes: 5,147
|
Post by adrianc on Apr 19, 2019 14:16:51 GMT
I am experiencing a surge in defaults – is this the onset of the big FC crash? I had 102 defaults in 2018 So far in 2019 I have had 32 defaults We're at the end of week 16 of the year. So, assuming the rate is consistent, your 32 defaults so far will scale to 104 for the full year. Not that much of a surge, is it?
|
|
r00lish67
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,692
Likes: 4,048
|
Post by r00lish67 on Apr 19, 2019 14:17:15 GMT
I just started with FC when they introduced the black box. My first deposit was October 2017. My annualised return is 5.8% Vs an estimated 7% and my latest tax return shows an annual return after fees and BD of about 5%+. I've got 44 bad debts on 730 loan parts. At this stage i'm still reinvesting capital and interest but i'm keeping an eagle eye on the trend in my annualised return. How much of your current portfolio is downgraded? (i.e. how much does FC say you can withdraw if you go that screen, as a proportion of your total portfolio?)
|
|
ashtondav
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,814
Likes: 1,092
|
Post by ashtondav on Apr 19, 2019 14:56:33 GMT
£31,100 total, £29,400 available to sell.
|
|
dorset
Member of DD Central
Posts: 281
Likes: 187
|
Post by dorset on Apr 19, 2019 15:32:58 GMT
I am experiencing a surge in defaults – is this the onset of the big FC crash? I had 102 defaults in 2018 So far in 2019 I have had 32 defaults We're at the end of week 16 of the year. So, assuming the rate is consistent, your 32 defaults so far will scale to 104 for the full year. Not that much of a surge, is it? 25 defaults to mid April 2018 against 32 defaults to mid April 2019. An increase of 28% year on year which would come in at 130 for the year. Five defaults in the last five days and showing capital losses for the first time since 2011. Still looks like a surge to me.
|
|
r00lish67
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,692
Likes: 4,048
|
Post by r00lish67 on Apr 19, 2019 15:33:25 GMT
£31,100 total, £29,400 available to sell. If your £31.1k excludes those loans formally written down as bad debt, doesn't that mean you have another 5.5% (£1700/£31,100) of 'troubled loans', of which perhaps 40% might be lost, or another 2.2% of your return? That'd still put in you positive territory though I suppose if you're at 5%+ currently. (apologies if I've made any incorrect assumptions in the above)
|
|
adrianc
Member of DD Central
Posts: 10,019
Likes: 5,147
|
Post by adrianc on Apr 19, 2019 15:35:36 GMT
We're at the end of week 16 of the year. So, assuming the rate is consistent, your 32 defaults so far will scale to 104 for the full year. Not that much of a surge, is it? 25 defaults to mid April 2018 against 32 defaults to mid April 2019. An increase of 28% year on year which would come in at 130 for the year. Five defaults in the last five days and showing capital losses for the first time since 2011. Still looks like a surge to me. Like I said - assuming the rate is consistent. You could say that it's down on H2-18...
|
|
r00lish67
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,692
Likes: 4,048
|
Post by r00lish67 on Apr 24, 2019 10:19:37 GMT
New investor newsletter out with an update to projected returns.
I thought I'd dig back into my email to see how we started out in the 'new lending experience' world of the September 2017 black box.
Sept 2017: Balanced: Projected return of 7.5% per year after fees and bad debt
April 2019: Balanced: Projected return of between 4.5% and 6.5% (presumably after bad debt/fees too).
That's pretty lame. But don't worry, they say, these new projected returns won't affect your existing loans*
*as they seem to be doing worse than the new or old projections.
|
|
|
|
Post by gravitykillz on Apr 24, 2019 20:29:50 GMT
The management of funding circle are dumb. The platform is in decline and they are not able to see it. Funding circle need to return to their pre 2017 format asap.
Investors like me will only return to fc if we can choose our own loans and the interest rate we want to lend at.
|
|
|
|
Post by gravitykillz on Apr 24, 2019 20:35:40 GMT
Whats ironic is i have alot more money now than i did when i first invested in p2p via funding circle. And now i choose not to invest there anymore as there are so many better p2p platforms out there for investors to choose from. Funding circle need to adapt to this but seem to be doing the opposite.
|
|
|
|
Post by gravitykillz on Apr 24, 2019 20:37:15 GMT
I think i will just watch this slow decline from the shadows.
|
|
ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,330
Likes: 11,549
|
Post by ilmoro on Apr 24, 2019 20:54:46 GMT
Not exactly in decline it has to be said, somebody is using them.
'Revenues beat guidance.
Revenue rose by 55% to £141.9mln, ahead of the 50% growth the company said it expected at the time of the IPO.
Loans under management, excluding property, gained 55% to £3.15bn as originations jumped 40% to £2.29bn.
Funding Circle said net lending to small and medium enterprises in the UK last year was £723mln, higher than the £515mln by all high street banks combined.
US loans under management topped US$1bn, ahead of about 98% of FDIC-insured banks in 2018 that held a combined US$939mln.'
|
|
|
|
Post by gravitykillz on Apr 24, 2019 21:10:21 GMT
Im sure those figures have been manipulated somehow or sales have increased because they are giving loans to everyone now regardless of wether they can afford to repay or not. The feedback from investors and the official figures do not match.
Also there seems to be less liquidity in the platform than a few years ago withdrawals are now taking much longer than before.
|
|
benaj
Member of DD Central
N/A
Posts: 5,619
Likes: 1,741
|
Post by benaj on Apr 25, 2019 1:39:03 GMT
FCH releases its Q1 update. Projected bad debt rate range for loans originated in 2019 is lowered than 2018 and 2017. Only time will tell whether the current projection is in line with the next series of projections.
|
|
