aligibbs
Member of DD Central
Posts: 69
Likes: 25
|
Post by aligibbs on May 1, 2019 7:14:20 GMT
I'm out. My ISA transfer is going through at the moment. Was only just breaking even, even on quite a large-ish balance. 2/3 defaults each month were wiping out over 50% of my interest. Total return was 2-2.5%. Thanks Zopa- was good fun for the past 4/5 years, but I'm out.
|
|
aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,500
Likes: 924
|
Post by aju on May 1, 2019 9:09:01 GMT
I'm out. My ISA transfer is going through at the moment. Was only just breaking even, even on quite a large-ish balance. 2/3 defaults each month were wiping out over 50% of my interest. Total return was 2-2.5%. Thanks Zopa- was good fun for the past 4/5 years, but I'm out. Let me guess in plus only perhaps. Not being judgemental though as you will see below we all have found it a bit scary at times. I try not to watch even my stats on a monthly basis but more a trend basis. Rates have dropped and we have always struggled to console out rates with zopas advertising. I'm pulling funds myself for our 4 accounts, and reinvesting in RS and Marcus, but its more a question of diversification than concern at losse4s that said the last Tax years our totla Xirr came in at 5.08%. My accounts have 0.5 early adopter but we were for the most part 10-20% plus and 80-90% core and classic. The last few months have been quite up and down looking at our NAR's ranging from 60% down to 5% monthly losses. Never did we have any months with 100% losses. Of course each lender is at the mercy of the market for want of a better term. We did adopt a method of only lending at £10 loans for most of the last 2 years except for when classic (SG cover) was available. Not sure that helps you though. Our total balance was nearly 6 figures for the last two years or so so you can imagine at mostly £10 a loan its at quite a high number of loans - a lot of data to play with over 500,000 statment entries on my invest account the longest serving of our 4. The others are getting quite big too.
|
|
aligibbs
Member of DD Central
Posts: 69
Likes: 25
|
Post by aligibbs on May 1, 2019 12:30:05 GMT
I'm out. My ISA transfer is going through at the moment. Was only just breaking even, even on quite a large-ish balance. 2/3 defaults each month were wiping out over 50% of my interest. Total return was 2-2.5%. Thanks Zopa- was good fun for the past 4/5 years, but I'm out. Let me guess in plus only perhaps. Not being judgemental though as you will see below we all have found it a bit scary at times. I try not to watch even my stats on a monthly basis but more a trend basis. Rates have dropped and we have always struggled to console out rates with zopas advertising. I'm pulling funds myself for our 4 accounts, and reinvesting in RS and Marcus, but its more a question of diversification than concern at losse4s that said the last Tax years our totla Xirr came in at 5.08%. My accounts have 0.5 early adopter but we were for the most part 10-20% plus and 80-90% core and classic. The last few months have been quite up and down looking at our NAR's ranging from 60% down to 5% monthly losses. Never did we have any months with 100% losses. Of course each lender is at the mercy of the market for want of a better term. We did adopt a method of only lending at £10 loans for most of the last 2 years except for when classic (SG cover) was available. Not sure that helps you though. Our total balance was nearly 6 figures for the last two years or so so you can imagine at mostly £10 a loan its at quite a high number of loans - a lot of data to play with over 500,000 statment entries on my invest account the longest serving of our 4. The others are getting quite big too. Approx half in Plus, half in Core. Have been in it since they rolled it out whenever that was. I don't mind the defaults (and kept my max investment to £10 per loan as well), but when they eat up well up to half the interest, that's not the averages working for me. It's really interesting- my brother has an account with almost same balance & same weighting, his return is well over double mine. Figure that out :-p
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on May 1, 2019 13:05:16 GMT
Zopa does say that half the expected defaults occur in months 5 to 16. You can use the loan book to look at the maturity of your loans by sorting by loan start date (or use a pivot table etc). Even allowing for this, I reckoned experience was worse than expected so bailed out.
|
|
aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,500
Likes: 924
|
Post by aju on May 1, 2019 14:55:58 GMT
The thing is that whilst the averages should get closer the more loans one has it also follows as its an average then there must be some above the average and some below. Whilst I quoted our combined investment - adding all numbers together across all accounts, ISA *2 and Invest * 2 - My investments seem to be better performing than Mrs Aju (ignoring my early adopter value).
so looking at them individually then this is the case for the tax years 2018/19 and 2017/18
2017/18 Aju Invest (XIRR): 4.99% CJU Invest (XIRR): 4.21% AJU ISA (XIRR): 4.69% CJU ISA (XIRR): 4.42% Average: 4.58%
2018/19 Aju Invest (XIRR): 5.05% CJU Invest (XIRR): 4.58% AJU ISA (XIRR): 4.74% CJU ISA (XIRR): 3.75% Average all4: 4.53%
What should be noted is that starting 2019 we were withdrawing funding in the Invest side and more recently also the ISA side. The Xirr's above are yearly ones the figure I reported above was overall XIRR since Jan 2015 when the monthly statement screens appeared.
Earlier years 2015/16 and 2016/17 do show a steady decline in XIRR values for each period from 2015 as well but I'm guessing that's due to rate falls and spread and lending times etc. One other thing of note is that when the lending settles down and relending is occurring then this stabilises the defaults as well.
|
|
|
Post by kcrane on May 2, 2019 16:09:51 GMT
I'm out too though I will have a legacy balance for a few years (currently £3k) as it won't sell (bad, late, too small etc).
|
|
Greenwood2
Member of DD Central
Posts: 4,396
Likes: 2,789
|
Post by Greenwood2 on May 2, 2019 17:36:08 GMT
I assume Zopa is still doing pretty well as it seems to be difficult to lend new money at the minute. Like everywhere else probably new ISA money looking for a home.
|
|
aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,500
Likes: 924
|
Post by aju on May 2, 2019 21:31:04 GMT
Both myself and Mrs aju put 5 figure sums up for sale 2 days ago and they went like wildfire very almost immediately in fact.
|
|
zlb
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,422
Likes: 333
|
Post by zlb on May 3, 2019 15:25:21 GMT
Both myself and Mrs aju put 5 figure sums up for sale 2 days ago and they went like wildfire very almost immediately in fact. Was yours ISA. Mine took couple of days approx 1 month ago. ISA side (apart from the ones in arrears and defaults).
|
|
aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,500
Likes: 924
|
Post by aju on May 3, 2019 23:29:10 GMT
Both myself and Mrs aju put 5 figure sums up for sale 2 days ago and they went like wildfire very almost immediately in fact. Was yours ISA. Mine took couple of days approx 1 month ago. ISA side (apart from the ones in arrears and defaults). Both were ISA side, do seem to have quite a bit of interest adjustment though, not sure why as I thought rates were generally reducing rather than increasing. Seem to have slowed a little but still selling loans daily.
|
|
zlb
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,422
Likes: 333
|
Post by zlb on May 4, 2019 8:24:06 GMT
Was yours ISA. Mine took couple of days approx 1 month ago. ISA side (apart from the ones in arrears and defaults). Both were ISA side, do seem to have quite a bit of interest adjustment though, not sure why as I thought rates were generally reducing rather than increasing. Seem to have slowed a little but still selling loans daily. yes I had interest adjustment. Wasn't impressed with that given that my money has been earning well below their average. I didn't sell out entirely, but my eventual fees only made a negative earning similar to one bad default month I had. Given that their interest rate has gone down, and they are so large now, I think it would be nice if there were an investigation into where exactly that interest adjustment ends up, and how it is calculated.
|
|
aju
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,500
Likes: 924
|
Post by aju on May 4, 2019 8:45:23 GMT
I agree on the adjustments, when my loans are finished selling I will be asking for the data on the loans that caused an adjustment so i can check what loans were affected whilst it probably won't help me much it will make zopa work to make this aspect less opaque. It's easy to see how a loan is affected by the fee but the adjustment is way too loose for my liking. In the invest side I'm sure there was an estimate of adjustment - completely way out in reality but there none the less. In ISA sale, however, there was no mention of the loan adjustment value.
Also there were quite a few NEW loans that had not been in the book for long enough to reach payments I wonder how many of those caused an adjustment.
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on May 4, 2019 8:46:13 GMT
You may be able to get some of the interest adjustment refunded if it's significantly different to the original quote when you started the sale. I know I did and at least one other has mentioned it too I think.
|
|
paule
Posts: 44
Likes: 10
|
Post by paule on May 4, 2019 9:42:17 GMT
|
|
benaj
Member of DD Central
N/A
Posts: 5,663
Likes: 1,746
|
Post by benaj on May 4, 2019 15:00:25 GMT
I wouldnt call it investing as cant access the last money locked in so expect it to go negative in due course...... Well, hopefully you will get more money from recoveries. Regarding money locked, this is what I have experienced:- 1. Couldn't withdraw last penny on holding account due to rounding. 2. Couldn't withdraw repayment due to late processing to the holding account. Just checked my Zopa account, I received repayment from defaulters. My NAR wasn't great from the 2017 loans. I chose to sell my loans back in late 2017 because it wasn't heading the 11% projection. The selling fees wiped out quite a bit of my return. I Picked Zopa plus at the wrong time and invested too fast. The only thing I enjoy right now is regular bad debt repayment from some defaulters.
|
|