keitha
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2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on Dec 18, 2019 21:49:32 GMT
Labour politicians who seem to be in total denial of what happened in the election keep piping up in interviews with the claim that Brexit was the reason for their low vote total. The Guardian had a good article the other day: This is a repudiation of Corbynism: "But pause before declaring that this was the Brexit election: in fact, the NHS overtook Brexit as voters’ top concern. The trouble was, voters trusted Johnson on the NHS more than they trusted Jeremy Corbyn. You read that right." I think the key point is this: "For the last four years, Labour has been in thrall to the notion that it’s better to have a manifesto you can feel proud of, a programme that calls itself radical, than to devise one that might have a chance of winning." IT's a maths thing at 37 hours a week you need 4.5 nurses to cover a week allowing for sickness training etc you need 5.5 bring in Corbyn's 4 day week you'd need 7 so to keep the same level of cover as now you would need a little over 20% more staff. Some in Labour seemed to imply that the shorter working week would not apply to NHS staff, which will have upset quite a few of them
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Post by mrclondon on Dec 19, 2019 2:51:59 GMT
BJ putting a no-deal firmly back on the agenda has spooked the currency markets again - post exit poll/election gains all wiped out. Brexit is very far from getting done. Been a bit busy last few days to follow the detail, but there was some pretty crazy rubbish being invented by journalists (BBC /Sky) on Friday that contributed to the upswing on the currency markets (that the high majority meant that a softer brexit was now almost inevitable, and trotted out by one city manager I know as "fact" over the weekend.) Common sense says the markets were already pricing in a small Tory majority before the election so there should have been no major movement following the actual larger majority. Nothing substantive had changed, other than an increased likelihood of conservative majority at GE 2024.
Whilst the transition extension clause you refer to has hit the headlines, the more significant issue for the markets this week is the very strong briefing on Tuesday (via the lobby journalists - Guardian reporting thereof) that businesses must prepare for the end of the customs union in all circumstances. Unfortunately despite everything, there are still far too many that still haven't come to terms with that.
Whilst in practical terms you are of course correct that brexit is a long way from being done (yes I've delibrately changed your wording slightly), its clear from what the EU are saying this week that priority will be given during next years negotiations to the more urgent aspects at risk of creating cliff edge problems if left unaddressed on 1st Jan 2021. To expect everything to be finalised next year probably is too ambitious, but what the UK's unwillingness to extend the transition period should achieve is an implementation on 1st Jan 2021 of what has been achieved. Yes, there may be some aspects of the UK-EU long term relationship which become no-deal (yet) on 1st Jan 2021 and that may or may not have serious consequences for the sectors involved, the markets are not pricing in a total no-deal scenario which intuitively would mean something closer to 1.20 GBP:USD rather than the 130 plus today.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 19, 2019 8:31:40 GMT
Been a bit busy last few days to follow the detail, but there was some pretty crazy rubbish being invented by journalists (BBC /Sky) on Friday that contributed to the upswing on the currency markets (that the high majority meant that a softer brexit was now almost inevitable... I can see the logic - remember, without the ERG voting against it, May's deal would have gone through back in March. And where've JRM and friends been in the last week? It's almost as if they know their Farridgista views now carry no weight, because there's a majority without them. You can understand them being kept under wraps during the campaign, but you really would have expected some smug crowing by now...
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Dec 19, 2019 21:44:59 GMT
BJ putting a no-deal firmly back on the agenda has spooked the currency markets again - post exit poll/election gains all wiped out. Brexit is very far from getting done. Well, everyone with a grain of salt already knew that. If anyone truly believed the new government would "Get Brexit done" by the end of January they clearly hadn't been paying attention. I must take that back. Apparently Brexit will be done by the end of January, simply by banning the word Brexit after that date and calling the rest of the negotiations something else. Problem solved then!
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Dec 20, 2019 16:36:14 GMT
From the BBC website following the Brexit bill debate and vote. Funny how they always under-report Brexit positive news and vice versa.
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Post by bracknellboy on Dec 20, 2019 16:49:59 GMT
From the BBC website following the Brexit bill debate and vote. Funny how they always under-report Brexit positive news and vice versa. Uhhh ?
I think what they tend to do is report "news" pretty much regardless, but give up more "pages" for "News!" . "Conservative Government Brexit Bill passes after election returning a Conservative Govt with stonking great majority" falls into the "news" category, but not in the same "News!" category as "Govt just about wins/loses knife edge vote after 3 days of debate/hot air/waffle and piffle/dither and delay" or "Govt becomes lame duck after losing 4th vote on the trot" type stuff, or even "Govt withdraws whip fro m20+ MPS in unprecedented move after losing xyz".
Or in other words: the main news story happened 7 days ago, not today, and I think there was quite a lot of coverage of that.
Still, we can all live in our alternative mirror image versions of "outrageous media bias" views of the universe if it makes us feel better.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Dec 20, 2019 17:27:00 GMT
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Dec 20, 2019 17:42:09 GMT
That is not the same as breaking their promise. They are saying they will do it if "economic conditions allow" which is a row back but it isn't (yet) a broken promise.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Dec 20, 2019 17:48:16 GMT
That is not the same as breaking their promise. They are saying they will do it if "economic conditions allow" which is a row back but it isn't (yet) a broken promise. Indeed. Would people have Boris say "even if the economy was in a severe recession, with businesses under pressure, I'd ensure their costs go up"
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Dec 20, 2019 17:51:24 GMT
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 20, 2019 18:54:52 GMT
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Dec 21, 2019 1:14:17 GMT
adrianc thanks for that, the added colour / detail / references will help me in discussion with some friends of mine .
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littleoldlady
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Post by littleoldlady on Dec 21, 2019 9:44:57 GMT
From the BBC website following the Brexit bill debate and vote. Funny how they always under-report Brexit positive news and vice versa. Uhhh ?
I think what they tend to do is report "news" pretty much regardless, but give up more "pages" for "News!" . "Conservative Government Brexit Bill passes after election returning a Conservative Govt with stonking great majority" falls into the "news" category, but not in the same "News!" category as "Govt just about wins/loses knife edge vote after 3 days of debate/hot air/waffle and piffle/dither and delay" or "Govt becomes lame duck after losing 4th vote on the trot" type stuff, or even "Govt withdraws whip fro m20+ MPS in unprecedented move after losing xyz".
Or in other words: the main news story happened 7 days ago, not today, and I think there was quite a lot of coverage of that.
Still, we can all live in our alternative mirror image versions of "outrageous media bias" views of the universe if it makes us feel better.
You have jumped into print without looking at the images properly so have completely missed the point.
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Dec 21, 2019 11:52:55 GMT
Spin on spin doctor. Headlines Dominic Cummings takes £96K of (Taxpayers money ) This is suppose to show poor taxpayers being ripped off. Lots of GPS Consultants, hospital managers, council chiefs, civil servants and thousands of other government employees are paid from the public purse. The use of the word “Taxpayers” is meant to be inflationary. Frankly with the job he has done and the ultimate result I don’t particularly care if he is loved or not put him in charge of recoveries for Lendy,Col,FS and happily pay him twice his current salary to “GET RECOVERIES DONE “
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 21, 2019 12:03:55 GMT
Frankly with the job he has done and the ultimate result I don’t particularly care if he is loved or not put him in... Jail. Where he belongs, for perpetrating one of the biggest and most damaging frauds on the public in generations.
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