cwah
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Post by cwah on May 19, 2019 16:28:18 GMT
just to be clear on my opinion. I'm not bullish on the stock. And I'm not thinking it will do amazingly well either.
However I DO THINK it's unfairly attacked by the media and 1 particular broker. They said themselves they have enough liquidity for the summer £150-£200M cash and that the additional fund would be for winter season if necessary.
So pricing it for bankruptcy seems just too early and lot can happen in between. The Airlines already have bidders (Virgin, Lufthansa) and the Tour operator as well from Fosun.
An additional £300M in debt facility would mount the net debt from £389M (Y18) to £689M with net finance cost from £124M to £135-£150M. They advertised an underlying Ebidta of £250M which is of course not a number to really trust but show the potential to pay.
I recognise that Thomas Cook is a bit the equivalent to Tesla in the US. There will be lot more news about it. I bought at £0.14/share so down 15% to date, but hopefully it will bounce back up!
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 19, 2019 17:15:32 GMT
On this - as I was looking at book a TC charter flight in December, I checked out the details of what's protected. Holidays are fine, but not apparently flights booked online, where you'd be forced to rely on credit card protection (which itself isn't available under certain limits). Or, of course, travel insurance. But it's the ballache factor, as well as whether the cost is covered or not. I'd have thought TC and Tesla were pretty much exact opposites, though. One is a new-tech disruptor who are likely to be battered down by the old-guard changing direction and catching up with them. The other is the old guard, but who aren't really catching the new-tech disruptors.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on May 19, 2019 17:30:12 GMT
If I was the only game in town, and i know the company is going to be bankrupt, then I'll wait for administrator to come. But if I know the company will receive cash to keep trading for a sustainable amount of time, and that there are other parties interested, I may decide to buy shares and do a takeover this way. Such a nice word, "If". One of my favourites, along with "should". You should add “potential “ to that list my most hated meaningless word
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on May 19, 2019 17:35:14 GMT
You could always buy a fund that incorporates TC that way you can mitigate some chance of overall loss and get the gains should they bounce back. Personally I just bought into a fund that includes on site recycling machines for shops as Scotland to introduce a deposit return scheme for plastic bottles, cans and bottles. There are only a few manufacturers of these in the world. They will be busy as England and Wales expected to follow as usual 🏴
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 19, 2019 18:17:32 GMT
You could always buy a fund that incorporates TC that way you can mitigate some chance of overall loss and get the gains should they bounce back. Personally I just bought into a fund that includes on site recycling machines for shops as Scotland to introduce a deposit return scheme for plastic bottles, cans and bottles. There are only a few manufacturers of these in the world. They will be busy as England and Wales expected to follow as usual 🏴 The whole travel market is getting killed by price war. And buying a fund also dilute the reward AND pay fees to the fund manager. I may as well invest less and loose less if it bankrupt. They have 2 strong points that made me do this bet: - their airline is profitable and doing VERY well. It is actually growing profit at 10%+ YoY for few years already. It's the most valuable asset. - There aren't many packaged holidays brands available on the market. Just Tui and Jet2. So getting TC would open door to the holiday market to new comer. Makes it very desirable as well for newcomer If we compare to all the other brands who collapsed recently (Debenhams, Monarch, Flybe...) i can't see any of them with as much market penetration, brand recognition and uniqueness factor than Thomas Cook. That's why I'm taking a punt on it. It's a fundamentally good business and brand to own.
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 19, 2019 19:23:59 GMT
- their airline is profitable and doing VERY well. It is actually growing profit at 10%+ YoY for few years already. It's the most valuable asset.
I promised myself I wouldn't post again in this thread. But I can't resist this one ....
Is the above statement provided by the very same cwah who told us in post number one : "but they have a profitable airline which they intent to sell and should sell."
You seem to be wildly contradicting yourself in a very short space of time ? What exactly is your opinion on their airline business ?
It's not contradictory. It's a repetition. The airline is profitable. It's their most valuable asset and they intend to sell it. See the CEO speech about the airlines: www.itv.com/news/2019-05-16/thomas-cook-warns-brexit-is-delaying-holiday-plans-as-it-slumps-to-1-5bn-loss/"It's a very good airline, it makes profit and that's why we're using the money to pay back the debt. It's a good way to get away in a short time frame." Peter Fankhauser The strategy is to use the cash from the airline sales to pay back the debt (because it's eating too much into profit) and invest in new hotels which is the new group strategy
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gibmike
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What is a cynic? A man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
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Post by gibmike on May 19, 2019 22:50:36 GMT
In the past I have made several trades on stocks which I considered to have been adversely and incorrectly damaged by bad press. These have included Barclays, Rolls Royce, Partygaming (as was) and Tesco in the past.
These are my "quick buck" buys, where I hold the position for 3-6 months depending on the rebound.
Thomas Cook, Debenhams, House of Fraser etc. are companies that are/have suffered from more than bad PR, but shockingly bad cash flow.
In this instance I cannot see where the rebound is going to come from unless there is a new CEO, merger or takeover.
I'm out!
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on May 19, 2019 22:58:15 GMT
I promised myself I wouldn't post again in this thread. But I can't resist this one ....
Is the above statement provided by the very same cwah who told us in post number one : "but they have a profitable airline which they intent to sell and should sell."
You seem to be wildly contradicting yourself in a very short space of time ? What exactly is your opinion on their airline business ?
It's not contradictory. It's a repetition. The airline is profitable. It's their most valuable asset and they intend to sell it. The airline's doing so well, they're going to make sure it stops contributing to the business... The sale will plug part of the debts. At the expense of profitability.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on May 19, 2019 23:28:32 GMT
TC plane and where they are going
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Post by gravitykillz on May 20, 2019 7:34:06 GMT
I've done ok with metro bank so far. Bought shares at £5.11. But I would never invest in Thomas cook. That is just crazy you will lose your investment barring a miracle.
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Post by gravitykillz on May 20, 2019 7:36:06 GMT
Thinking about dumping metro bank soon and piling it all into Vodafone.
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 20, 2019 7:36:20 GMT
I've done ok with metro bank so far. Bought shares at £5.11. But I would never invest in Thomas cook. That is just crazy you will lose your investment barring a miracle. Why yes for metrobank and no for TC?
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 20, 2019 7:59:26 GMT
Why yes for metrobank and no for TC?
cwah have you seen the thread by gravitykillz on the equities forum here ? (http://p2pindependentforum.com/post/327494/thread). I'm not sure gravitykillz experience with special sits is any better than yours. Your buying of Thomas Cook and gravitykillz buying of Metro Bank are both gambling punts. I agree there is gambling there. I wouldn't bet on metrobank because I haven't looked enough into its account or market. But Thomas Cook has some unique value proposition I'm betting my shirt on it will stay on the market. There is always this risk, that it'll go under administration because their balance sheet dried up. But that's not going to happen before winter as summer is the time they make money. I'll take my loss at this stage if not sorted out
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Post by Deleted on May 20, 2019 9:07:11 GMT
A small piece of advice
I've made a good fortune investing in stocks and shares. I've studied various processes and I've looked at the people who make their money by these processes. The things you need to know are
1) Is this process right for your emotional relationship with money? (trust me, you have one which only you will discover if you lose everything you have)
2) It is always easy to buy and hard to sell. Trust me, when you see your money halving it is easy to say "it will come back" and when you see your money doubling it is easy to say "it will go further". So never, ever invest without a clear plan to sell at a certain level and follow it.
Good luck, what do they say, "failing to plan is planning to fail"
BTW if you think TC is anything like Tesla I really would stop investing. Cash flows are incredibly different, markets are different, for goodness sake, does anyone even know who TC's CEO is?
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Post by gravitykillz on May 20, 2019 9:14:51 GMT
Comparing metro bank to Thomas cook is like comparing Germany to Zimbabwe. Anyways I was just playing with money I could afford to lose. I don't do it every day. And to an extent I am gambling more with p2p lending.
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