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Post by omsettler on Jun 19, 2019 9:28:49 GMT
I've just spent some time reading the Lendy forum given the recent administration. What are your thoughts on general P2P risks (Lendy also had a provision fund I believe). Is the P2P bubble about to burst?
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Jun 19, 2019 14:43:15 GMT
I would say it has burst already but not beyond repair. It wasn’t a bubble in the same league as bitcoin
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jun 19, 2019 14:47:58 GMT
The mini-bubble involving lending at usurious rates to a collection of unsavoury individuals who prefer not to repay loans in conjunction with indifferent platforms has kind of burst.
I'm not yet sure about the lower rates collective firms. I do think that their position is generally far more precarious than is generally understood though.
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ceejay
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Post by ceejay on Jun 19, 2019 16:06:19 GMT
I think that the use of the term "bubble" may be misleading here. P2P isn't a commodity like gold or tulips, or an industry like technology, or even bitcoin, that we are being asked to buy into at grossly inflated prices which will inevitably collapse as reality dawns.
"Fad" might be a better term - something that has passed peak popularity and which has yet to settle down into a more sustainable place in the world of investments.
I guess what matters is whether that settling down happens in a controlled manner, as expectations get gradually reset and platforms sort themselves out - or in an uncontrolled fashion, such as would occur if we saw a Lendy or a Collateral with one of the biggest platforms.
My money (literally!) is on gradual resettlement: I expect there to be more failures but I will try hard to avoid getting too badly burned by them!
In the meantime, pray (if that's your thing) that nothing really bad happens at FC, RS or Z - or there will be a flight to the exit which will burn everyone.
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Post by brightspark on Jun 19, 2019 20:02:41 GMT
If by the bubble that is about to burst you are implying a collapse of confidence you are correct. Collateral and Lendy Administations are the main p to p triggers.
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Jun 19, 2019 20:23:37 GMT
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Post by martin44 on Jun 19, 2019 23:29:29 GMT
I certainly think the bubble has burst for those of us who have had the experience over the last 3 yrs or so , however the p2p model always looks good for the first 12/18 months of a new platforms growth, and many new investors who carry out 0% due diligence will undoubtedly fall into the cyclical trap, long term?....., p2p investment does have a place, but serious and stringent regulation needs to be imposed on future platforms.
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ozboy
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Mine's a Large One! (Snigger, snigger .......)
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Post by ozboy on Jun 20, 2019 10:43:55 GMT
And as I have said elsewhere, there needs to be prosecutions and jail terms, blatant lying and outright Fraud has and is being committed on a grand scale. But that's alright, whilst The FCA and RICS sip on their Pimms.  |
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Post by freedommmm on Jun 20, 2019 14:45:29 GMT
The graph is really nearly 100% exactly the Bitcoin scenario over the last 2 years or so!
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scc
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Post by scc on Jun 21, 2019 2:11:33 GMT
I think it's possible that p2p might be more like a Gartner hype cycle for new technology etc.  and that we might be somewhere between the peak and trough. Increased regulation, testing via recession etc will be the things standing between now and the plateau. |
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aju
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Post by aju on Jun 21, 2019 12:40:52 GMT
And as I have said elsewhere, there needs to be prosecutions and jail terms, blatant lying and outright Fraud has and is being committed on a grand scale. But that's alright, whilst The FCA and RICS sip on their Pimms. Hear hear my good man! It's not quite the same I know but I was under the impression there would a certain percentage of frauds on the retail borrowers side for the likes of Zopa and RS models. The FCA is not actually going to be able to stop the frauds are they, the banking sector regulation has long seemed weighted against the ordinary fellow in the street. The FCA and their brother organisations are baulking at the seems according to recent panorama investigations. Isn't it always as case similar to buying a second hand car - "Let the Buyer beware!" or as the boys from eton would say "Caveat Emptor"!. The recent political rounds have shown that its simply every man/woman for themselves and got worse when the lady with the handbag was running the show. If we ever leave the EU and the cover of all the consumer legislation then it will become an inglorious time for all when the "T" boys and their cohorts start stripping more of the froth off the top of everything down the line....
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Jun 21, 2019 13:34:26 GMT
I've just spent some time reading the Lendy forum given the recent administration. What are your thoughts on general P2P risks (Lendy also had a provision fund I believe). Is the P2P bubble about to burst? one point to consider is DD of the platform, the individuals concerned, and their accounting. Ly rarely gave away who the borrower was. So there's culpability of the platform to consider. BM have withdrawn their product because they consider the risks are not adequately compensated by too low returns if I understand it....well, you can read the thread and Steve Findlay's points there.
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sd2
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Post by sd2 on Jun 24, 2019 14:06:09 GMT
I think we have to expect the smaller p2p charging usury interest rates to go down. Add the increase in regulation and some smaller p2p well managed ones, will bite the dust as well. Depending on either there profitably (or lack of it) or how deep the pockets of their backers are.
A recession always (up to now) effects business loans more than personal unsecured loans.
I am happy long/medium term with hard brexit but as the previous bank of england governer said we will do alright outside the EU but you should expect an initial shock aka a recession.
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Jun 24, 2019 18:33:58 GMT
So if the FCA regulated for transparency, and ruled out dodgy accounting practices (the ones that require expert knowledge to know/understand what a platform and it's individuals are practicing - tax evasion being the relatively innocuous element here), would that make it more stable? At the moment, cutting out the usual middle men, seems to be allowing potentially any old middle men to take their place.
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Post by notascooby on Jul 8, 2019 17:17:31 GMT
Love the behaviour curve. Just think there has to be a spot on it for "I'm locked in and waiting on an opportunity to shake the dust of P2P from myshoes"
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