sd2
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Apr 26, 2021 21:39:50 GMT
Ace likes this
Post by sd2 on Apr 26, 2021 21:39:50 GMT
, I find investing in the people who are consistently good makes me a lot of money. There is only one way to find them, .
Tell him @wallstreet he's clearly basing his investment strategy on past performance! You need to put him in his place
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foolsgold
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Apr 26, 2021 22:45:57 GMT
sd2 likes this
Post by foolsgold on Apr 26, 2021 22:45:57 GMT
I can see it from Wallstreets point of view in respect to past performance not being an indicator of the future.
Temple Bar was one that was trading at 10 percent dicount to NAV and last year they brought in a new management team and zoom its up some 80 percent.Now looking at past performance you wouldnt touch it with a bargepole but with a change of management its recovered most of the discount to NAV and I bought in .
Personally I dont always be sucked into buying IT with a discount to Nav and I ask myself why?....I prefer to buy at plus or minus 1-2 percent to NAV.
I have looked at Murray in the past but at that point in time it wasnt impressing me and opted for SMT and EWT along with other Baillie darlings such as Monks and did very well out of them.
One big regret was investing some 10 percent into wisdom tree gold and Im sitting on a paper loss.
Looked at Argo Blockchain single share a while back along with Bitcoin but backed off as I dont really trust that sector at all ...what does it make?...really its fictional money and my gut says leave well alone
Yes Ib=ve good a good feeling about good old blighty going forward and am breaking away from the safe easy Global ITs into how I did it years ago but its only a hunch
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foolsgold
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Apr 26, 2021 22:53:51 GMT
Post by foolsgold on Apr 26, 2021 22:53:51 GMT
Many years ago I used to invest in Unit trusts then converted to Investment trust as I believe they are a lot better and also HL were a bit naughty as when you used their comparison software it defaulted to price rather than percentage rise when comparing the UT to the IT run by the same manager.This was done to encourage investors to invest in UT as they made commission off them and very little off ITs..Stuck in a complaint to the FCA and it was upheld so Im now a firm fan of ITs.
About 6 years ago I spent a lot of time researching differnt sectors to decide how my asset allocation would be set up and rebalanced every 6 months which was expenisve as well.SAfter many years I did a side by side comparison against global UTs and ITs and individual sectors and found that the global funds outperfomed my whole foilio so I thought what the point of spending time doing all that so now just invest in Global ITs after much research.
Now you may ask why am I asking about the likes of IIT and Baillie Gifford Uk growth trust.Reason is I believ that the UK sector will outperform the rest of the world whislt much of the Global trusts havnt adjusted for this soi I am trying to compensate.
Ive also got Finsbury UK growth trust as well as Temple bar and IIT...I will take a look at Henderson trust as mentioned before
Global trust of which I own are SMT...mid wynd...F&C (not impressed)...Bailloie Gifford US growth trust (brilliant trust)....Smithson...Scottish American...Edinburgh Worldwide...Monks...Dunedin...and a few more...given that I dont use an FA think Ive dione extremely well.
Any other global trusts that people use??
What rescources do people use ??
Trustnet is useful
Morningstar was usefull a few years ago but many of the reseacth tools are no longre available unless you upgrade...citywire used to be good but find it hard to navigate.
HL are very good for research if you manipulat the software comparison tool
Any other ones that people use would be appreciated?
AIC Which stock is AIC ?
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foolsgold
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Apr 26, 2021 22:55:16 GMT
Post by foolsgold on Apr 26, 2021 22:55:16 GMT
Its really hard to recommend investments on a forum as we each have different views (and you also don't want them to come back and bite you on the bum)But its interesting that having decided that your allocations and time would be best served by a global outlook you are now looking to swerve back again and be brave and put a lot of trust in good old blighty.Apart from individual sectors such as health,ESG and other niche areas etc you seem to have the world market covered and from the UK you might have a look at Law Debenture (which has a business within the trust which covers about a third of the divs) Purely from an interest point of view rather then data there is the blog IT investor which you might find worth a read Thanks where is the investment trust blog?
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foolsgold
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Apr 26, 2021 22:57:47 GMT
Post by foolsgold on Apr 26, 2021 22:57:47 GMT
If you own a number of investment trusts, is this sensible diversification? Or do you reach a point where the different approaches of them all average out, and you might as well have bought a global tracker? Ive found that in general a goot IT outperforms the global trackers...have a look at SMT for example
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foolsgold
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Apr 26, 2021 23:05:56 GMT
Post by foolsgold on Apr 26, 2021 23:05:56 GMT
If you own a number of investment trusts, is this sensible diversification? Or do you reach a point where the different approaches of them all average out, and you might as well have bought a global tracker?
The first thing is to understand what a "global tracker" is and isn't. In particular it would do many people some good to take a look at the constituents of your average "global tracker" and thus how the price of said tracker will get dragged up and down rather than reflecting reality due to the concentrated risk. Too many people just blindly buy into the rose-tinted view of trackers being the panacea. They're not.
That aside, back to the subject of ITs, you have to be careful not to end up with "diworsification". Trying to cover your ass by thinking you can come up with some clever portfolio of ITs that covers all sector asset classes is not going to work, because in normal markets you'll end up suffering from disconnection rather than correlation .
However if ITs are your thing, you could potentially come up with an interesting group of concentrated ITs that gives you true global coverage in a better and more interesting manner than your average "global tracker".
Personally I prefer global stock picking, but I understand people might prefer colletives due to budget constraints or limited time, limited interest or limited access to good data for some of the further reaches.
I wish I had the depth of knowledge or courage to pick a single globalstock but I leave that to the experts with plenty of money to spend on research.All I do is research the trust and manager history and monitor any changes in strategy going forward.
Might be wrong but think it might have been Alliance Trust but they were doing badly historically and changed to using a multi manager approach dipping in and out of differnt managers ...dont think it worked out that great in the medium term.I tend to watch for manager changes that gain traction and then perhaps invest a bit
But TBH my main investment vehicle is property investment ...not trusts but bricks and mortar BTL and ITs are just a diversification or a means to fill a SIPP
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foolsgold
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Apr 26, 2021 23:29:26 GMT
Post by foolsgold on Apr 26, 2021 23:29:26 GMT
Try using HL UT fund comparison then overlay with relevant IT over various time frames and you can select up to 8 different ITs for comparisons...think they do ETF as well .
The software is really set up for UT comparison but yoiu can tweak it for ITs
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sd2
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Post by sd2 on Apr 27, 2021 6:11:22 GMT
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macq
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Post by macq on Apr 27, 2021 7:56:11 GMT
I can see it from Wallstreets point of view in respect to past performance not being an indicator of the future.
Temple Bar was one that was trading at 10 percent dicount to NAV and last year they brought in a new management team and zoom its up some 80 percent.Now looking at past performance you wouldnt touch it with a bargepole but with a change of management its recovered most of the discount to NAV and I bought in .
Personally I dont always be sucked into buying IT with a discount to Nav and I ask myself why?....I prefer to buy at plus or minus 1-2 percent to NAV.
I have looked at Murray in the past but at that point in time it wasnt impressing me and opted for SMT and EWT along with other Baillie darlings such as Monks and did very well out of them.
One big regret was investing some 10 percent into wisdom tree gold and Im sitting on a paper loss.
Looked at Argo Blockchain single share a while back along with Bitcoin but backed off as I dont really trust that sector at all ...what does it make?...really its fictional money and my gut says leave well alone
Yes Ib=ve good a good feeling about good old blighty going forward and am breaking away from the safe easy Global ITs into how I did it years ago but its only a hunch
I think we all agree that past performance is no guarantee in the future hence all investment companies using it as a disclaimer but the argument yesterday,was should you look at the past at all.Using your Temple Bar as an example you said looking at its poor past performance people would not trust it with a barge pole. But at that point you looked at its past and made an investment decision to ignore it based on what you hoped would happen in the future with the knowledge of new managers and outlook and this was rewarded as with a change of manager its going great guns. But if investing today you would look at the past and wonder why the poor results before and then why the sudden rise now.You would/should dig deeper at that point and see the news of the manager and any other changes and make the decision have things turned around or is some of the performance due to the new investments bought in and can it continue or is it the discount closing etc rather then just investing because its up 80%.So yes the past is not an indicator of the future the same as predictions for the future - but all might be part of the bigger picture
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macq
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Post by macq on Apr 27, 2021 7:58:17 GMT
Its really hard to recommend investments on a forum as we each have different views (and you also don't want them to come back and bite you on the bum)But its interesting that having decided that your allocations and time would be best served by a global outlook you are now looking to swerve back again and be brave and put a lot of trust in good old blighty.Apart from individual sectors such as health,ESG and other niche areas etc you seem to have the world market covered and from the UK you might have a look at Law Debenture (which has a business within the trust which covers about a third of the divs) Purely from an interest point of view rather then data there is the blog IT investor which you might find worth a read Thanks where is the investment trust blog? itinvestor.co.uk
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2021 8:00:27 GMT
hi wallstreet, I was thinking about your comment as I ate my porridge this morning and I must do more than look at graphs and was trying to boil it down...
1) I have 40 years experience and back ground knowledge of share trading, Statistical Process Control and I have a MBA
2) I have developed a consistent process of selection and consistent process of control. I don't touch certain things (Russia, China, -stans, Africa, South America etc).
3) Nowadays I do very little selection and very little trading, one new asset in the past year and three removed from the list. About one deal a month depending on market conditions. This can mean I move out of Asset A and back into Asset A if a black swan event comes along. I don't think I have ever been fully out of the market in 40 years and I try to find assets that recover well from major crashes
4) I own roughly 15 assets, all in US and UK markets. I started with more like 35 but culled using evolution as my key tool
5) My pretty graph watching is based on a minimum of 5 years line graphs, but I actually consider them more as number groups with means and standard deviations rather than lines (because they are not lines those are merely what computers like to draw)
But do I look at the accounts? No. I might look at cash burn and cash, I do look at Fund size and manager's age (45 or older please but not over 60). I do look to see how many assets a fund has <50 is my target. No man can look at more than 50 assets in a working year of 220 days. In shares I like to see a business that has relatively few deals done by the CEO. In fact I like a lazy CEO and Chairman. Their job is to run the business not go buying other companies.
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foolsgold
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Post by foolsgold on Apr 27, 2021 9:11:51 GMT
I can see it from Wallstreets point of view in respect to past performance not being an indicator of the future.
Temple Bar was one that was trading at 10 percent dicount to NAV and last year they brought in a new management team and zoom its up some 80 percent.Now looking at past performance you wouldnt touch it with a bargepole but with a change of management its recovered most of the discount to NAV and I bought in .
Personally I dont always be sucked into buying IT with a discount to Nav and I ask myself why?....I prefer to buy at plus or minus 1-2 percent to NAV.
I have looked at Murray in the past but at that point in time it wasnt impressing me and opted for SMT and EWT along with other Baillie darlings such as Monks and did very well out of them.
One big regret was investing some 10 percent into wisdom tree gold and Im sitting on a paper loss.
Looked at Argo Blockchain single share a while back along with Bitcoin but backed off as I dont really trust that sector at all ...what does it make?...really its fictional money and my gut says leave well alone
Yes Ib=ve good a good feeling about good old blighty going forward and am breaking away from the safe easy Global ITs into how I did it years ago but its only a hunch
I think we all agree that past performance is no guarantee in the future hence all investment companies using it as a disclaimer but the argument yesterday,was should you look at the past at all.Using your Temple Bar as an example you said looking at its poor past performance people would not trust it with a barge pole. But at that point you looked at its past and made an investment decision to ignore it based on what you hoped would happen in the future with the knowledge of new managers and outlook and this was rewarded as with a change of manager its going great guns. But if investing today you would look at the past and wonder why the poor results before and then why the sudden rise now.You would/should dig deeper at that point and see the news of the manager and any other changes and make the decision have things turned around or is some of the performance due to the new investments bought in and can it continue or is it the discount closing etc rather then just investing because its up 80%.So yes the past is not an indicator of the future the same as predictions for the future - but all might be part of the bigger picture I do use past performance of ITs and compare same sectors side by side using graphs but only as a guide in a larger decision making process.If SMT remains the same with the same manager in place and nothing else changes then I would throw it into the mix but it wouldnt be top of the list in my decision making process.SMT I believe are saying goodbye to their current manager Andeson and Slater is taking the lead going forward so we have to look at Slater and his impact in the running of the trust.Up to the point of Anderson deciding to retire I was confident but noow its on my watch list of funds to sell but what to buy in its place.
Their is a rotation from growth into value hence the increase in Temple Bar combined with the change in management tean and the 10 percent it had in disvcount to value.Perhaps Temple Bar is at the top of its run and will plateau so a graph doesnt serve me well on that one but it does with Mid wynd..Monks etc
I also look at skin in the game but does the new fund managers of Smithson not have a large personal investment in the initial funding at IPO?...and do they still have the same exposure?
My biggest worry right now is the threat of oncoming infation and the impact it will have on share prices and the ability of Fund managers to outperform in the new environment and graphs dont help with that.
Property inflation and the threat a crash for me is also a worry and whether to expand or consolodate my portfolio in the low interst rate environment but meanwhile lock into low 5 year fixed rates as they renew
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sd2
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Post by sd2 on Apr 27, 2021 9:56:20 GMT
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Nomad
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Post by Nomad on Apr 27, 2021 10:24:07 GMT
The first sentence of Rule 1 of this forum reads "Be polite and constructive at all times." I fail to see how exchanges like this meet either criterion, Admin
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star dust
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Post by star dust on Apr 27, 2021 21:53:27 GMT
Mod Hat On/ I've just removed a number of posts which formed an offensive trading of insults between two forum members. This type of behaviour is both unnecessary and unacceptable here.
Disagree by all means, but don't resort to personal insults.
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