ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Jul 31, 2019 16:51:20 GMT
I don't see what's exciting or interesting about 5.6% when you can get 7.9% rate for 5 years at a very similar offering from Ratesetter Australia? I know it is not the same market, currency or even company. But still. Can a uk resident invest through RS Australia? Even so is the fx rate risk worth it?
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smezz
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Post by smezz on Jul 31, 2019 17:18:27 GMT
The last couple of weeks has seen lending at 6% during the week getting matched at the weekend.
Not exciting but probably worth reinvesting bits and bobs which are repaid on my boys accounts.
Continuing to withdraw from main accounts (wife + me).
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thedog
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Post by thedog on Jul 31, 2019 17:34:35 GMT
I don't see what's exciting or interesting about 5.6% when you can get 7.9% rate for 5 years at a very similar offering from Ratesetter Australia? I know it is not the same market, currency or even company. But still. Can a uk resident invest through RS Australia? Even so is the fx rate risk worth it? In the current Sterling environment FX Risk would be, by a country-mile, the biggest part of your investment risk. GBP/USD (1.22 today) expected to move between 1.10 (or lower) and 1.40 (or higher) in next few months depending on Brexit outcome (and GBP/AUD will be similar sort of % range) so the gains or losses on FX retranslation would easily outweigh your interest income.
Fine if you want non-GBP assets and if GBP falls you'll do very well (in GBP terms) but if things are resolved to the liking of the currency markets and GBP rallies you could easilly lose 10%-20% on FX in a few months.
(NB All very carefully phrased not to give a view 1 way or t'other on the B word - just the expected FX market implications).
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aju
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Post by aju on Jul 31, 2019 17:43:43 GMT
Can a uk resident invest through RS Australia? Even so is the fx rate risk worth it? In the current Sterling environment FX Risk would be, by a country-mile, the biggest part of your investment risk. GBP/USD (1.22 today) expected to move between 1.10 (or lower) and 1.40 (or higher) in next few months depending on Brexit outcome (and GBP/AUD will be similar sort of % range) so the gains or losses on FX retranslation would easily outweigh your interest income.
Fine if you want non-GBP assets and if GBP falls you'll do very well (in GBP terms) but if things are resolved to the liking of the currency markets and GBP rallies you could easilly lose 10%-20% on FX in a few months.
(NB All very carefully phrased not to give a view 1 way or t'other on the B word - just the expected FX market implications).
Oh you are so right about sterling issues, Mrs Aju has just reminded me we have large final payment on a holiday in the euro zone coming up next month and the rates were tumbling well into the zone where we should have paid the whole lot up front when we booked it quite a few months ago now when the euro was considerably better than the last couple of days. Oops!
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thedog
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Post by thedog on Jul 31, 2019 18:03:09 GMT
was going to put a bl00dy-great strategic short on £ this week but market beat me to it..... Is it still worth it? Maybe but shorts get squeezed if HoC blocks no-deal exit. "Sigh" or I should say doggie "whimper"...
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Post by wiseclerk on Jul 31, 2019 20:30:04 GMT
I don't see what's exciting or interesting about 5.6% when you can get 7.9% rate for 5 years at a very similar offering from Ratesetter Australia? I know it is not the same market, currency or even company. But still. Can a uk resident invest through RS Australia? Even so is the fx rate risk worth it?
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robski
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Post by robski on Sept 5, 2019 11:30:24 GMT
MR has now moved to 5.7% thought it would happen around now as has been quite a lot lent at higher rates since the last tick
Suspect we wont see 5.8% before RS torpedo the market
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rscal
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Post by rscal on Sept 5, 2019 18:44:59 GMT
Can a uk resident invest through RS Australia? Even so is the fx rate risk worth it?
I would have thought that regular investing and/or reinvestment of repayments would mitigate FX risk via the cost averaging.
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thedog
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Post by thedog on Sept 6, 2019 17:45:40 GMT
That's true if the market is fluctuating within a range AND CRUCIALLY is expected to continue to do so. In that case your average entry point is the average of that range and your average exit price, if you spread exits over time, is likely to be the about the same.
Though you're still short-GBP long-ccy in this case AUD, just at various different entry points.
But that's not what the market is currently doing. £ is currently fluctuating within a range driven by expectations of political / Brexit outcomes. But crucially once those events crystallise it is likely to move OUTSIDE that range.
For example £/$ today 1.23, and this year has moved between ~1.32 and ~1.20.
Hard Brexit expected to result in ~1.10 or lower, soft maybe ~1.30, revocation harder to call depending on the prevailing politics but probably somewhere between 1.40 and 1.45. Market price at present is weighted average of expectations of these outcomes.
you can't average that risk away, because the market will trend (or jump if the politics is sudden like a surprise election result) to one of the outcomes as the politics crystallises.
Hope that's helpful.
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aju
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Post by aju on Sept 7, 2019 15:16:48 GMT
Sadly the 5Y MR went back down to 5.6! It only stayed at 5.7 for 3 days. Mind you the 1Y MR is steadily increasing now up to 4.7 that will probably go back down tomorrow...
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ashtondav
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Post by ashtondav on Sept 8, 2019 8:03:35 GMT
Hoping for a nibble on my 6%ers later in the month, or early October.
Or will everything change with the new products?
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Post by davee39 on Sept 8, 2019 11:47:59 GMT
Still investing?
The new products are screaming that RS (like Zopa & FC) is in trouble.
These constant changes bring nothing for the lender, but add further fudges to the loan mix.
RS can no longer rely on a major backer (Woodford), while FC have p***ed in the flotation pool, so a float is off the table.
Take care.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Sept 8, 2019 12:47:07 GMT
Still investing? The new products are screaming that RS (like Zopa & FC) is in trouble. These constant changes bring nothing for the lender, but add further fudges to the loan mix. RS can no longer rely on a major backer (Woodford), while FC have p***ed in the flotation pool, so a float is off the table. Take care. I agree. Further, IMV all platforms of this ilk are likely seeing broadly similar (poor) returns at present despite the contrasting lending mix. Investors are already seeing this at first hand with platforms that pass losses directly to them. Some platforms instead absorb all of these losses to protect the headline rate. Result? happy investors for now, but how long are they going to be willing to do that for?
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mickj
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Post by mickj on Sept 9, 2019 17:56:48 GMT
8k asking for 5.7% in 5year and much the same at 3% in rolling.
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zlb
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Post by zlb on Sept 10, 2019 17:45:59 GMT
Still investing? The new products are screaming that RS (like Zopa & FC) is in trouble. These constant changes bring nothing for the lender, but add further fudges to the loan mix. RS can no longer rely on a major backer (Woodford), while FC have p***ed in the flotation pool, so a float is off the table. Take care. I agree. Further, IMV all platforms of this ilk are likely seeing broadly similar (poor) returns at present despite the contrasting lending mix. Investors are already seeing this at first hand with platforms that pass losses directly to them. Some platforms instead absorb all of these losses to protect the headline rate. Result? happy investors for now, but how long are they going to be willing to do that for? Who's absorbing the losses, and where could one find this evidenced? I'm consistently getting under Zopa's publicised rates, but not as low as 3% - as yet, but I haven't tried to close my account there. How are LW's rates that much higher than RS's? Why does this indicate RS failing - might 3% be a realistic value in context if the market is due to be unstable or if the RS pf needs greater bolstering? That's aside from fund ourselves advertising balance sheet lending and borrowing from their P2P operation, in order to keep the P2P side running smoothly.
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