jaswells
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Post by jaswells on Sept 12, 2020 10:19:13 GMT
As has been the problem now for years and years, you can read a few lines of any article and know almost immediately whether it was written by a remainer or brexiteer and therefore everything that follows is one sided and politically charged. No different here as clearly a remainer perspective. Ultimately Brexit must now get done, be it no deal or not, suspended animation cannot continue.
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Post by honda2ner on Sept 12, 2020 10:58:16 GMT
I couldn't find any sense in that blog, just echo chamber froth. There was little analysis and no balance just endless sensationalism. I do my best to always get both sides of the story (I know that's a full time job with our current daily u-turn government) as sensible decisions can only be made knowing all sides, getting emotional is a disaster and the authors rage and disdain is more than palpable. I for one am using this opportunity to move a small amount of a dollar holding back into sterling, I can move both ways so don't really care what the exchange rate does, IMO the balance is tipped slightly to buying sterling but of course that's subjective so everyone is different.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Sept 12, 2020 11:03:53 GMT
As has been the problem now for years and years, you can read a few lines of any article and know almost immediately whether it was written by a remainer or brexiteer and therefore everything that follows is one sided and politically charged. No different here as clearly a remainer perspective. Ultimately Brexit must now get done, be it no deal or not, suspended animation cannot continue. Sorry - Brexit HAS been done. We are not in the EU, full stop. The issue is that the government has decided to break the EU withdrawal treaty it signed just a few months ago that got Brexit done. As to what our long-term relationship with the EU will be - well, that's another issue altogether that could not have been more catastrophically handled by the various UK governments.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Sept 12, 2020 11:05:59 GMT
I couldn't find any sense in that blog, just echo chamber froth. There was little analysis and no balance just endless sensationalism. I do my best to always get both sides of the story (I know that's a full time job with our current daily u-turn government) as sensible decisions can only be made knowing all sides, getting emotional is a disaster and the authors rage and disdain is more than palpable. I for one am using this opportunity to move a small amount of a dollar holding back into sterling, I can move both ways so don't really care what the exchange rate does, IMO the balance is tipped slightly to buying sterling but of course that's subjective so everyone is different. I take the opposite view - Sterling more likely to head lower before any recovery, and that depends on the government changing course. If it persists in breaking international law, there is a further drop on the way to Euro parity or below. Seeing where this was heading, I managed to move 5 figures from sterling into US Dollars, Euros and Swiss Francs before the fall started. But it's a drop in the ocean given that everything I earn is in Sterling, and Brexit has greatly devalued much of my accumulated and future wealth.
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james100
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Post by james100 on Sept 12, 2020 12:08:06 GMT
I think the actions of our government (basically announcing to the world we're a bunch of dim cheating liars when it comes to international agreements) will have longer lasting impacts that the immediate cliff-edge of no deal Brexit...it will hit future trade deal negotiating power *hollow laugh* and filter through to inflation, influencing future interest rate decisions etc. As previously stated I firmly believe that no deal was always plan A for (all) major Brexit donors, with the aim of a currency crash, market volatility and general chaos ushering in a disaster capitalism & tax avoidance party for the wealthy so no surprises here (and I'm invested according to that belief) and I don't see it as something the government would seek to avoid. What I'm entirely unsure of is short term dynamics around the USD end of things: election, covid first and second waves, China etc. We almost hit 1.14 only 6 months ago when the assumption was that there would be a Brexit deal, so lots going on!
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IFISAcava
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Sterling
Sept 12, 2020 12:33:45 GMT
via mobile
Post by IFISAcava on Sept 12, 2020 12:33:45 GMT
I think the actions of our government (basically announcing to the world we're a bunch of dim cheating liars when it comes to international agreements) will haveĀ longer lasting impacts that the immediate cliff-edge of no deal Brexit...it will hit future trade deal negotiating power *hollow laugh* and filter through to inflation, influencing future interest rate decisions etc. As previously stated I firmly believe that no deal was always plan A for (all) major Brexit donors, with the aim of a currency crash, market volatility and general chaos ushering in a disaster capitalism & tax avoidance party for the wealthy so no surprises here (and I'm invested according to that belief) and I don't see it as something the government would seek to avoid. What I'm entirely unsure of is short term dynamics around the USD end of things: election, covid first and second waves, China etc. We almost hit 1.14 only 6 months ago when the assumption was that there would be a Brexit deal, so lots going on! How does one invest to take account of disaster capitalism?! Because I am bearish on Sterling, and the foreseeable UK economic outlook due to Brexit, I have over the last few years shifted virtually all my S&S investments into global markets and a large proportion of my cash in a basket of Forex (US Dollars, Euros, Yen, Swiss Francs, Aussie Dollars) and a little crypto.
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travolta
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Post by travolta on Sept 12, 2020 16:22:21 GMT
Dont be down hearted . A weak currency comes with its own set of strengths.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Sept 12, 2020 17:01:55 GMT
Part of me wonders if this latest twist about Brexit is simply the government realising it is nowhere near as popular as it wants to be and it probably thinks that Brexit was what made it popular in the first place (last election) so it should do something dramatic to please the brexiteers.
I think it will probably backfire. A handful of prominent Tory Leavers have already said they are not in favour. I'm still making up my mind but probably against as it does seem to be done purely as a populist trick like many other of the government's other actions. I don't believe the EU are negotiating in good faith but this is probably not the answer.
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james100
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Post by james100 on Sept 12, 2020 17:25:45 GMT
I think the actions of our government (basically announcing to the world we're a bunch of dim cheating liars when it comes to international agreements) will have longer lasting impacts that the immediate cliff-edge of no deal Brexit...it will hit future trade deal negotiating power *hollow laugh* and filter through to inflation, influencing future interest rate decisions etc. As previously stated I firmly believe that no deal was always plan A for (all) major Brexit donors, with the aim of a currency crash, market volatility and general chaos ushering in a disaster capitalism & tax avoidance party for the wealthy so no surprises here (and I'm invested according to that belief) and I don't see it as something the government would seek to avoid. What I'm entirely unsure of is short term dynamics around the USD end of things: election, covid first and second waves, China etc. We almost hit 1.14 only 6 months ago when the assumption was that there would be a Brexit deal, so lots going on! How does one invest to take account of disaster capitalism?! Because I am bearish on Sterling, and the foreseeable UK economic outlook due to Brexit, I have over the last few years shifted virtually all my S&S investments into global markets and a large proportion of my cash in a basket of Forex (US Dollars, Euros, Yen, Swiss Francs, Aussie Dollars) and a little crypto. I'm no expert (Jacob Rees-Mogg's late father is probably one of the more prolific authors in this area) but I'd say investment approaches taking it into account w/should depend on an individual's asset levels, geog mobility / retirement currency, tax vulnerability, job security, DB pension, time to devote etc. This is a quick read for both sides: uk.investing.com/news/forex-news/pointcounterpoint-the-case-for-the-pound-2209772
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Sept 12, 2020 19:01:49 GMT
How does one invest to take account of disaster capitalism?! Because I am bearish on Sterling, and the foreseeable UK economic outlook due to Brexit, I have over the last few years shifted virtually all my S&S investments into global markets and a large proportion of my cash in a basket of Forex (US Dollars, Euros, Yen, Swiss Francs, Aussie Dollars) and a little crypto. I'm no expert (Jacob Rees-Mogg's late father is probably one of the more prolific authors in this area) but I'd say investment approaches taking it into account w/should depend on an individual's asset levels, geog mobility / retirement currency, tax vulnerability, job security, DB pension, time to devote etc. This is a quick read for both sides: uk.investing.com/news/forex-news/pointcounterpoint-the-case-for-the-pound-2209772Thanks for this. I got as far as: "To sell sterling at these levels, you have to believe that the U.K. government is as stupid as it has pretended to be this week." So I sold some more Sterling.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Sept 12, 2020 19:20:18 GMT
I couldn't find any sense in that blog, just echo chamber froth. There was little analysis and no balance just endless sensationalism. I do my best to always get both sides of the story (I know that's a full time job with our current daily u-turn government) as sensible decisions can only be made knowing all sides, getting emotional is a disaster and the authors rage and disdain is more than palpable. I for one am using this opportunity to move a small amount of a dollar holding back into sterling, I can move both ways so don't really care what the exchange rate does, IMO the balance is tipped slightly to buying sterling but of course that's subjective so everyone is different. I take the opposite view - Sterling more likely to head lower before any recovery, and that depends on the government changing course. If it persists in breaking international law, there is a further drop on the way to Euro parity or below. Seeing where this was heading, I managed to move 5 figures from sterling into US Dollars, Euros and Swiss Francs before the fall started. But it's a drop in the ocean given that everything I earn is in Sterling, and Brexit has greatly devalued much of my accumulated and future wealth. Very similar view and actions here too, partially mitigating the possible fall with global equities and foreign currencies. Alas too, it will still sting. I find it weird that some are seeking to resurrect the 'leaver/remainer' culture war aspect in relation to this. Firstly, regardless of what it is about, the Government is openly admitting it is seeking to break international law, and not only that but one it brokered itself very recently. Even if this is some sort of negotiation game, and I'm not sure it is, it's genuinely scary stuff. Do remainers believe in obeying international law, whilst for leavers it's fine not to bother? Surely not. This is no longer the same affair. Three former Conservative PM's certainly don't seem to think so. Anyway, as above, we've already Brexited, there's not even really this concept anymore. When the attorney general is claiming that this isn't a problem because Parliament is sovereign, this is again scary stuff. By that logic, all countries with a Parliament can just disregard international law too. Or perhaps we're just exceptional? As in the days of old, I did try reading the Telegraph's view. To be honest, on this, even their heart doesn't seem in it. Charles Moore's line is "No independence struggle can be conducted with perfect decorum". Um, ok. I just don't think even they can successfully contort the basic fact that this Government appears intent on breaking the law that it negotiated, signed, subsequently won an election on and now claim was all done a bit quickly and isn't so good after all so can be abandoned. Can anyone really credibly think "yep, no probs with any of that, well played"? Agh.
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Post by dan1 on Sept 12, 2020 21:48:48 GMT
The developments over the last week could just be seen as posturing albeit while trashing the UK's reputation that has been built up over centuries of parliamentary democracy.
As I see it, ultimately, it boils down to a choice between hard brexit and no deal. A hard brexit requires regulatory alignment between the EU and NI as per the WA (plus state aid rules and fisheries) whereas no deal leaves us with no prospect of a trade deal with the EU or USA and threatens the GFA.
I guess your view of Sterling really depends on which camp you view as most likely. I interpret Sterling over the last week to view no deal as materially more likely now. If no deal happens Sterling will fall (much?) further, and vice versa.
Is it not that simple?
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Sept 13, 2020 0:36:44 GMT
The developments over the last week could just be seen as posturing albeit while trashing the UK's reputation that has been built up over centuries of parliamentary democracy. As I see it, ultimately, it boils down to a choice between hard brexit and no deal. A hard brexit requires regulatory alignment between the EU and NI as per the WA (plus state aid rules and fisheries) whereas no deal leaves us with no prospect of a trade deal with the EU or USA and threatens the GFA. I guess your view of Sterling really depends on which camp you view as most likely. I interpret Sterling over the last week to view no deal as materially more likely now. If no deal happens Sterling will fall (much?) further, and vice versa. Is it not that simple?Yes and no.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Sept 13, 2020 1:07:58 GMT
The developments over the last week could just be seen as posturing albeit while trashing the UK's reputation that has been built up over centuries of parliamentary democracy. As I see it, ultimately, it boils down to a choice between hard brexit and no deal. A hard brexit requires regulatory alignment between the EU and NI as per the WA (plus state aid rules and fisheries) whereas no deal leaves us with no prospect of a trade deal with the EU or USA and threatens the GFA. Unfortunately the likes of Johnson (and the ERG), and Trump, have finally managed to make a truth of something that not even Napoleon managed. Only it will be other peoples' shops, other peoples' goods, and other peoples' manufacturies.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2020 1:20:40 GMT
The cynic in me is thinking that they want to cause maximum damage as soon as possible while the Covid-19 virus is around...
... which means they can blame all the damage on Covid. And then claim the post-Covid recovery is actually a post-Brexit dividend.
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