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Sterling
Sept 13, 2020 7:07:17 GMT
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Post by failedtheturingtest on Sept 13, 2020 7:07:17 GMT
How does one invest to take account of disaster capitalism?! Because I am bearish on Sterling, and the foreseeable UK economic outlook due to Brexit, I have over the last few years shifted virtually all my S&S investments into global markets and a large proportion of my cash in a basket of Forex (US Dollars, Euros, Yen, Swiss Francs, Aussie Dollars) and a little crypto. I'm in the same camp as you, my stocks are almost all in international tracker funds and ETFs. However, I have been less sure what to do with the cash & bonds portion of my portfolio. Most of that is in global government bond funds and in Euro-denominated bond funds. But I'm curious about what you've done with cash - what exactly is your 'basket of forex'? Bond funds denominated in other currencies? Or are you literally keeping cash in bank accounts in other currencies?
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Sept 13, 2020 7:37:21 GMT
The cynic in me is thinking that they want to cause maximum damage as soon as possible while the Covid-19 virus is around... ... which means they can blame all the damage on Covid. And then claim the post-Covid recovery is actually a post-Brexit dividend. This always strikes me as a take, often put in newspapers, destined to be put on the bonfire at a later date. If we, for example, see lorries snaking around the motorways on the news or notice that food/medicine is unavailable or unusually expensive, I don't see how anyone is going to think "ah, this damned COVID!" Ok, there may be some unemployment crossover there which they could potentially blame on the virus. Though, even there, I'm not sure. Which sectors have been most affected by COVID - Leisure, hospitality, travel? Which sectors will be most affected by No deal - Farming, food retail, automotive, various import/export SME's? edit: side-note, interesting to see Keir Starmer popping up in the Daily Telegraph today. There must have been a few monocles dropped into the cornflakes over that!
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IFISAcava
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Sterling
Sept 13, 2020 8:58:57 GMT
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Post by IFISAcava on Sept 13, 2020 8:58:57 GMT
How does one invest to take account of disaster capitalism?! Because I am bearish on Sterling, and the foreseeable UK economic outlook due to Brexit, I have over the last few years shifted virtually all my S&S investments into global markets and a large proportion of my cash in a basket of Forex (US Dollars, Euros, Yen, Swiss Francs, Aussie Dollars) and a little crypto. I'm in the same camp as you, my stocks are almost all in international tracker funds and ETFs. However, I have been less sure what to do with the cash & bonds portion of my portfolio. Most of that is in global government bond funds and in Euro-denominated bond funds. But I'm curious about what you've done with cash - what exactly is your 'basket of forex'? Bond funds denominated in other currencies? Or are you literally keeping cash in bank accounts in other currencies? I am quite heavy in cash at the moment so yes a lot is now held in other currencies. Given zero or negative bank base rates it isn't earning anything. Some is in broker accounts pending investment as and when I reduce my overall cash position (eg if/when the markets dip). For better or worse I am a bit wary of sticking too much in bonds at the moment. A bit was in Euro P2P (Mintos mainly) but that's all withdrawn bar a few hundred in recovery and I've massively reduced P2P generally. I generally spend a lot in Euros so they don't last all that long - though reduced travel and the coming import/customs tariffs will perhaps reduce that expenditure.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Sept 13, 2020 9:06:06 GMT
The cynic in me is thinking that they want to cause maximum damage as soon as possible while the Covid-19 virus is around... ... which means they can blame all the damage on Covid. And then claim the post-Covid recovery is actually a post-Brexit dividend. This always strikes me as a take, often put in newspapers, destined to be put on the bonfire at a later date. If we, for example, see lorries snaking around the motorways on the news or notice that food/medicine is unavailable or unusually expensive, I don't see how anyone is going to think "ah, this damned COVID!" Ok, there may be some unemployment crossover there which they could potentially blame on the virus. Though, even there, I'm not sure. Which sectors have been most affected by COVID - Leisure, hospitality, travel? Which sectors will be most affected by No deal - Farming, food retail, automotive, various import/export SME's? edit: side-note, interesting to see Keir Starmer popping up in the Daily Telegraph today. There must have been a few monocles dropped into the cornflakes over that! You need to think more in 4D. Super intelligent Dom has it all worked out and cannot be wrong. It is all part of a Cummings plan that has been extensively wargamed by his tech mates, who will save the UK economy and quite coincidentally become phenomenally wealthy on vast quantities of taxpayers money.
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Post by dan1 on Sept 13, 2020 10:19:56 GMT
The cynic in me is thinking that they want to cause maximum damage as soon as possible while the Covid-19 virus is around... ... which means they can blame all the damage on Covid. And then claim the post-Covid recovery is actually a post-Brexit dividend. This always strikes me as a take, often put in newspapers, destined to be put on the bonfire at a later date. If we, for example, see lorries snaking around the motorways on the news or notice that food/medicine is unavailable or unusually expensive, I don't see how anyone is going to think "ah, this damned COVID!" Ok, there may be some unemployment crossover there which they could potentially blame on the virus. Though, even there, I'm not sure. Which sectors have been most affected by COVID - Leisure, hospitality, travel? Which sectors will be most affected by No deal - Farming, food retail, automotive, various import/export SME's? edit: side-note, interesting to see Keir Starmer popping up in the Daily Telegraph today. There must have been a few monocles dropped into the cornflakes over that! A good counter-point although is this all in the detail for your average voter? I mean no disrespect but 90% of folk don't care about politics or the economy at a national level. One thing springs to mind. At some stage taxes are going to need to increase (or austerity re-introduced with a vengeance, take your pick) but it's accepted now is not the time - don't kill those shoots of recovery and all that. If those taxes are introduced next year they may be viewed as brexit taxes but leave them another year or two and the election is rearing its head (remember, we're in a 4 1/2 year parliament not 5).
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Post by Deleted on Sept 13, 2020 21:20:27 GMT
The cynic in me is thinking that they want to cause maximum damage as soon as possible while the Covid-19 virus is around... ... which means they can blame all the damage on Covid. And then claim the post-Covid recovery is actually a post-Brexit dividend. This always strikes me as a take, often put in newspapers, destined to be put on the bonfire at a later date. If we, for example, see lorries snaking around the motorways on the news or notice that food/medicine is unavailable or unusually expensive, I don't see how anyone is going to think "ah, this damned COVID!" Ok, there may be some unemployment crossover there which they could potentially blame on the virus. Though, even there, I'm not sure. Which sectors have been most affected by COVID - Leisure, hospitality, travel? Which sectors will be most affected by No deal - Farming, food retail, automotive, various import/export SME's? edit: side-note, interesting to see Keir Starmer popping up in the Daily Telegraph today. There must have been a few monocles dropped into the cornflakes over that! Of course it is implausible if you look at the details, but do you think the average voter cares one jot about this level of detail? This is a government that can make ridiculous excuses like breaching Covid rules so they can test their eyesight by driving to a castle. And yet they know that the detail of the excuses are irrelevant because when they blow the Brexit dogwhistle, the supporters will come running.
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jonno
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nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Sept 14, 2020 8:39:07 GMT
And yet they know that the detail of the excuses are irrelevant because when they blow the Brexit dogwhistle, the supporters will come running.
Yup.
The cabinet is only there because they swore allegiance to the Brexit cause.
As for the rest of the MPs on the benches, they're spineless turds who don't have the backbone to defy the whip.
Strangely, I've never encountered a vertebrate turd
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Post by dan1 on Sept 25, 2020 15:58:08 GMT
To all those holding USD as hedge for "disaster capitalism" and the collapse of GBP I ask this: does what's going on across the pond make you think twice or shift into Euros or Yen or whatever? What happens if there's deadlock following Nov 3rd or, god forbid, civil war 2?
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Sept 25, 2020 16:46:56 GMT
To all those holding USD as hedge for "disaster capitalism" and the collapse of GBP I ask this: does what's going on across the pond make you think twice or shift into Euros or Yen or whatever? What happens if there's deadlock following Nov 3rd or, god forbid, civil war 2? I'm not brave enough to short the US, but I figure I have enough exposure via my pension, so ISAs have been directed elsewhere. Even then you have to accept that the US is a large market for every other market / index / company you can likely think of so there's little real escape from US exposure except govie bonds and... they're not very attractive right now.
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james100
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Post by james100 on Sept 25, 2020 17:25:04 GMT
To all those holding USD as hedge for "disaster capitalism" and the collapse of GBP I ask this: does what's going on across the pond make you think twice or shift into Euros or Yen or whatever? What happens if there's deadlock following Nov 3rd or, god forbid, civil war 2? Good question. You are referring to USD cash I assume? My personal answer is no alternative currencies (not any more) for the convenience of investment recycling, complexity reduction and because if I leave UK then I'm increasingly drawn to a USD country so that changes my risk profile a little. I do hold global government AAA/AA bonds which is about 50% EU though. Deadlock and civil war may well rock the dollar but if so, gold price would increase in response. You might enjoy this: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-23/gold-may-hit-record-before-year-end-on-election-risk-citi-warns I'm hard-pressed to believe US could be worse than UK by year end tbh.
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Post by dan1 on Sept 25, 2020 21:27:35 GMT
To all those holding USD as hedge for "disaster capitalism" and the collapse of GBP I ask this: does what's going on across the pond make you think twice or shift into Euros or Yen or whatever? What happens if there's deadlock following Nov 3rd or, god forbid, civil war 2? Good question. You are referring to USD cash I assume? My personal answer is no alternative currencies (not any more) for the convenience of investment recycling, complexity reduction and because if I leave UK then I'm increasingly drawn to a USD country so that changes my risk profile a little. I do hold global government AAA/AA bonds which is about 50% EU though. Deadlock and civil war may well rock the dollar but if so, gold price would increase in response. You might enjoy this: www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-23/gold-may-hit-record-before-year-end-on-election-risk-citi-warns I'm hard-pressed to believe US could be worse than UK by year end tbh. Sorry, yes cash not other asset classes. You mention global govt bonds because they are unhedged? Doesn't the movement in currencies dominate the shift in the underlying asset, is this a non-cash hedge against further falls in GBP? Please correct me if I'm wrong. There may well be no deal (who honestly knows) but I'm optimistic that won't, to use an epidemiological term, become endemic Surely a deal will be done in time just as you don't leave that self-inflicted open wound to fester indefinitely. A lot of the brexit uncertainty is priced in but I'm not sure that applies to the POTUS stuff but what do I know.
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IFISAcava
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Sterling
Sept 26, 2020 1:48:08 GMT
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Post by IFISAcava on Sept 26, 2020 1:48:08 GMT
I have about 40% USD, 40% Euros and 20% other (CHF, JPY and AUD). I am lighter in USD cash because of high proportion of US stocks I hold and because as a currency hedge I don't want too much in one basket. I also spend a lot in Euros.I am thinking of adding another Asian currency - prob Singapore dollars.
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Post by dan1 on Oct 11, 2020 8:45:37 GMT
I'm increasingly confident a trade deal will be done with the EU in good time before the end of the transition period. Renewed optimism stems from what's occuring in the US because it seems increasingly likely that the Democrats will secure a clean sweep of President, Senate & House of Representatives. It places Johnson's regime in an ever increasing tricky spot given he said of Biden's former boss... Interesting times
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 11, 2020 9:06:26 GMT
I'm increasingly confident a trade deal will be done with the EU in good time before the end of the transition period. Renewed optimism stems from what's occuring in the US because it seems increasingly likely that the Democrats will secure a clean sweep of President, Senate & House of Representatives. It places Johnson's regime in an ever increasing tricky spot given he said of Biden's former boss... Interesting times I hope your confidence is well founded.
There do appear to be a diminishing number of obstacles to an agreement, and I've always seen a certain irony that north sea fishing rights is one of the biggest blockers, yet the SNP would gladly give up those rights to remain in the EU if they were ever to gain independence.
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