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Post by thesnoop on Dec 18, 2014 11:24:50 GMT
Is it possible to review details of late loans, given that I have not invested in them.
I can ID them from the Loan book entry, however, they are not listed on the SM so I can't search for the initial offering using the 'Loan Parts' search filter.
I would very much like to analyse what, if any, common factors the known offenders share in the financials / business descriptions.
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kaya
Member of DD Central
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Post by kaya on Dec 18, 2014 15:22:17 GMT
I asked this very question of FC, and the answer is, if you don't have the loan on your own 'files', then that info is not available. The only way, I think, would be to save every loan in your watchlist, and then periodically check them all, which of course is ridiculous. Is there indeed common factors to be analysed? Well, maybe, but there are so many factors involved that I doubt it, and the best overall judge, unless you are a financial wizard, is perhaps your intuition.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Dec 18, 2014 16:57:19 GMT
The downloadable loan book used to contain a lot of the pertinent financial and credit score data, but currently does not .. Maybe it'll reappear some day. However there really still is not a large enough population of loans to derive any useful stats from, given how the goalposts have kept changing over the last 3 years.
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baz657
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Post by baz657 on Dec 19, 2014 0:16:07 GMT
7674 is very concerning for an A rated loan. Defaulted today. £50,000 over 48 months and two payments totaling £2,500 made but... Luckily I'm not in it for much.
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grahamg
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Post by grahamg on Aug 17, 2015 18:02:15 GMT
Hi I am new to Funding circle so am slowly working myself into the forums. Having seen this post i made a quick analysis of when to sell based on the defaults in the current loanbook. Have attached a graph. it plots percentage risk adjusted for sale volume against default after X payments. Risk of default seems to rise sharply after 4 payment and settles down again after 22 payments . Not sure how valid this is. Attachments:
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coop
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Post by coop on Aug 18, 2015 9:12:24 GMT
Great first post!
On this analysis it looks like 6 months is potentially too long! I usually look for a slightly earlier exit myself; or shed a third of my holding in a loan every 2 months so after 6 it's all gone.
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Post by goldservice on Sept 19, 2015 6:45:40 GMT
13541A Accepted less than 3 months ago (25 June 2015):
"18 Sep 2015 We have downgraded this loan today as we have become aware of a credit event. We have aranged (sic) to liaise with the directors next week to establish the current position and will revert to investors thereafter."
Doh!
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Sept 19, 2015 8:12:49 GMT
Useful post grahamg and thanks.
I have about 1400 separate loans and 54 have so far defaulted (the portfolio has been built up over about 3 years). I have analysed my 54 defaults and can discover no default pattern - business type or size or region etc.
I do not invest in any loans over 36 months. Default timing averages approx 20th payment from 36 with the quickest 3/36 and the longest standing 30 payments received from 36.
Unless you invest substantial amounts in each loans I cannot see how the endless work involved in selling early is worth while financially. Only my view.
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Post by longjohn on Sept 19, 2015 11:27:45 GMT
13541A Accepted less than 3 months ago (25 June 2015): "18 Sep 2015 We have downgraded this loan today as we have become aware of a credit event. We have aranged (sic) to liaise with the directors next week to establish the current position and will revert to investors thereafter." Doh! Just posted that in 'I don't like Thursdays' (or Fridays) before reading this. I guess FC didn't want to wait almost a week to announce it in case we spotted it first and put the lot up for sale. John
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Post by goldservice on Sept 19, 2015 11:37:17 GMT
13541A Accepted less than 3 months ago (25 June 2015): "18 Sep 2015 We have downgraded this loan today as we have become aware of a credit event. We have aranged (sic) to liaise with the directors next week to establish the current position and will revert to investors thereafter." Doh! Just posted that in 'I don't like Thursdays' (or Fridays) before reading this. I guess FC didn't want to wait almost a week to announce it in case we spotted it first and put the lot up for sale. John I may be wrong but I think that the only event announcements that Fractured Computing likes to keep for Thursdays are defaults. The 13541 event is a downgrade or RBR, not a default (yet, Fingers Crossed!) The label 'downgrade' seems like a misnomer to me as nothing has been downgraded - the risk band has been removed, not lowered.
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Post by longjohn on Sept 20, 2015 11:45:51 GMT
I may be wrong but I think that the only event announcements that Fractured Computing likes to keep for Thursdays are defaults. The 13541 event is a downgrade or RBR, not a default (yet, Fingers Crossed!) The label 'downgrade' seems like a misnomer to me as nothing has been downgraded - the risk band has been removed, not lowered. Ah, I thought Thursdays were RBR day but you're correct, every weekday could be a RBR day. Thursdays are for defaults. John
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SteveT
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Post by SteveT on Sept 10, 2016 7:44:06 GMT
Very few FC loans have any asset security (property loans excepted, where there has yet to be a default), just a PG or personal liability for the debt.
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grahamg
Member of DD Central
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Post by grahamg on Sept 11, 2016 17:17:16 GMT
Hi I am new to Funding circle so am slowly working myself into the forums. Having seen this post i made a quick analysis of when to sell based on the defaults in the current loanbook. Have attached a graph. it plots percentage risk adjusted for sale volume against default after X payments. Risk of default seems to rise sharply after 4 payment and settles down again after 22 payments . Not sure how valid this is. , I'd suggest your charted analysis is valid and broadly applicable to P2B; have you considered running the figures again by type of security offered by successful Borrowers, beginning with PG and working up? This may prove more revealing... Many thanks. No! Like many others I gave up on FC when it went fixed rate apart from some property loans. Also suddenly everything was "A" rated.. And of course there is no security outside of the property loans.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Sept 11, 2016 17:54:10 GMT
/mod hat off
'Fixed rate' I could handle (but I prefer to be able to pick) . . what I can't handle is fixing the rate at 6-8% for basically unsecured SME loans. Fix it at 14-20% and I might look a bit more interested. With 10%-13% 'sort of secured' available on other platforms, for 12 months or less, why would you go 5 years at a lower rate, unsecured, on FC?? Unless you believe the 'too big to fail' line, I guess, or turned your brain off and autobid on.
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Dec 16, 2016 15:36:36 GMT
/mod hat off ..
This strategy needs a rethink .. in the last couple of weeks I have seen 25831 go down the tubes after 1 payment (of 60), and 24435 go down after 1 (late) payment out of 6. Given the origination rate of Ds and Es (which these were) that's pretty grim statistics. I think 'sell after 6 days' (or never buy at all) might be a better plan.
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