stevio
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Post by stevio on Oct 15, 2019 20:49:19 GMT
I know that the vast majority wouldn't borrow to invest
Also the vast majority of CFD traders do not make money
So I am expecting a lot of stick for even daring to suggest this!
Not sure if this strategy has a name or has been suggested before. But if you were to use a margin loan to purchase dividend stocks where the dividend would pay for the interest and then pocket any increase in share price or dividend over the interest rate.
IB, for example, offer 2% margin loan on GBP
Obviously the share price and dividend could go down. So possibly best to consider stocks that have stable growth and consistent dividend. Maybe an Investment Trust or dividend aristocrat
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Mike
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Post by Mike on Oct 17, 2019 12:27:46 GMT
Look at historic data - you'll see dividend payment adjustments are very efficient, and this won't work.
Remember it's not just financing you pay for (which is relatively cheap), but you also need to pay the spread which will gobble up all the profit of most retail investors' algorithmic strategies.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on Oct 17, 2019 14:09:54 GMT
Look at historic data - you'll see dividend payment adjustments are very efficient, and this won't work. Remember it's not just financing you pay for (which is relatively cheap), but you also need to pay the spread which will gobble up all the profit of most retail investors' algorithmic strategies. And you might have to pay tax on the gross income and not be able to offset the borrowing costs, depends on how you do it.
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sd2
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Post by sd2 on May 8, 2020 11:18:26 GMT
There are plenty of investment trusts with big dividend reserves. Including some with a 100% reserve. So a long term loan means you should be in profit....BUT Without checking I think they are all in negative territory in terms of share price gains over 5 years. Reserves and yields on my purchase now, not when I bought them. City of London 74% reserve yield 5.6% Henderson far east 80% reserve 7.3% Perpetual income and growth 96% reserve yield 7% Murray international 109% reserve yield 5.5% This info supplied by aic www.theaic.co.uk/companydata/0P00008ZOW. Furthermore most have had positive change in there discounts/premiumsPerpetual income and growth City of London have gone from premium of 2.8% (for the last 12 months)to 4.4%. The 2.8% has been affected by the the increase it was 1.8% prior to the crash Perpetual income and growth Premium/Discount: -14.14% 12m average Premium/Discount: -12.92% The 12 months average during the crash was 16% AND it went to a 26% discount during the crash. Or at least that's what it was when I bought it. If you are going to do it, look for lowest interest rate. Remembering that £7500 to 15,000 are normally the lowest rates and I (if I was going to) I would look for at least 5 years.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on May 8, 2020 14:43:32 GMT
I’m interested but don’t fully understand. I have zero understanding of CFD and don’t want to do that.
What I would like is the following example: - say I have 500k in equities after the stock market has just dumped 35 - 50% but I’m all in with no cash left to buy - HL would lend me money, say 200k against my equity holdings and charge around 2% - I go all in equities with the 200k and pay 2% interest for as long as it takes to be in profit.
Is something like that possible?
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on May 10, 2020 10:28:42 GMT
I’m interested but don’t fully understand. I have zero understanding of CFD and don’t want to do that. What I would like is the following example: - say I have 500k in equities after the stock market has just dumped 35 - 50% but I’m all in with no cash left to buy - HL would lend me money, say 200k against my equity holdings and charge around 2% - I go all in equities with the 200k and pay 2% interest for as long as it takes to be in profit. Is something like that possible? Yes. But make sure you do fully understand before you do anything. Of the many things you need to consider 1) at what point can they force a close out, this has got much tougher for retail investors in the last few years. As stocks fall they might increase the margin required for your holding (in addition to covering any mark to market losses). At the moment they might allow you to "borrow" between 75% and 90% of your shareholding (depends on how liquid your shares are) and IG require a 10% margin for FTSE250 index (I happened to have that open). If the market becomes more turbulent a platform might reduce the former (less likely) and increase the latter (very likely). They might be forced to do this by a regulator. 2) There is a risk of a mini crash, or flash crash. Depending on what you buy you might find it trades on multiple exchanges, often overnight with thin trading. Even without that risk sometimes a trader enters sell 2930 S&P500 contracts at 1 instead of 1 at 2930 and this mistake triggers other stop losses. If the market is nervous or thin (think Christmas and New Year trading). Extreme moves happen. You might find you are closed out if one of your holdings is involved in this sort of move. Borrowing 40% of your portfolio means it has to be a big move, but they happen. 3)You need to consider currency risk or possibly the lack of currency risk will a big move hurt you - think Swiss Franc a few years ago. You need to consider much more than this, you need to read the full terms and conditions to understand what they can and can't do.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on May 10, 2020 19:33:21 GMT
Not sure why this old thread from October 2019 has suddenly made a reappearance, but jeesus it's scary. bigfoot12 makes some valid points. But frankly, I'd just summarise as three words: DON'T DO IT. Remember rule number one: Don't invest more than you can afford to loose Leveraged trading breaks that rule. Especially greedy, gluttonous retail trading where, if you are anything like your average retail trader, you don't have sufficient capital to fund your account and so you overleverage through your own greed. Overleverage is the biggest killer of the retail trader because you get blown out by short-term volatility. Then you have the audacity of going crying to mummy because you think the broker has deliberately been "stop-hunting" (or whatever other lousy excuse), when in reality it was your dumb overleverage that killed you off. Agreed. Not doing it.
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 17, 2020 1:13:19 GMT
Better borrow through the bank or remortgage your house. You won't be killed by margin call this way
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elliotn
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Post by elliotn on May 18, 2020 9:37:25 GMT
I’m interested but don’t fully understand. I have zero understanding of CFD and don’t want to do that. What I would like is the following example: - say I have 500k in equities after the stock market has just dumped 35 - 50% but I’m all in with no cash left to buy - HL would lend me money, say 200k against my equity holdings and charge around 2% - I go all in equities with the 200k and pay 2% interest for as long as it takes to be in profit. Is something like that possible? I know you have big cohones but you are the least likely passive advocate I’ve ever come across.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on May 18, 2020 14:17:32 GMT
I’m interested but don’t fully understand. I have zero understanding of CFD and don’t want to do that. What I would like is the following example: - say I have 500k in equities after the stock market has just dumped 35 - 50% but I’m all in with no cash left to buy - HL would lend me money, say 200k against my equity holdings and charge around 2% - I go all in equities with the 200k and pay 2% interest for as long as it takes to be in profit. Is something like that possible? I know you have big cohones but you are the least likely passive advocate I’ve ever come across. Genuinely, my accounts are all invested in one ETF, vanguard all world. I’m not going to try and leverage it. I’m adjusting to a new phase of the accumulation stage of investing where my investment returns or losses in a year are often more than I earn from working, so my contributions aren’t making much of a dent anymore.
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bigfoot12
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Post by bigfoot12 on May 20, 2020 11:59:20 GMT
Better borrow through the bank or remortgage your house. You won't be killed by margin call this way Except the interest on the loan can't usually be offset against any income, and fixed costs on a mortgage can be expensive if you don't want to continue the trade for long. Spread bets can be tax free (76+% of punters lose money).
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cwah
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Post by cwah on May 20, 2020 15:01:07 GMT
Better borrow through the bank or remortgage your house. You won't be killed by margin call this way Except the interest on the loan can't usually be offset against any income, and fixed costs on a mortgage can be expensive if you don't want to continue the trade for long. Spread bets can be tax free (76+% of punters lose money). Still better than the margin call risk I think. A major drop in the market and you loose everything. There was really cheap stock due to margin call on mid march. Unfortunately it didn t last long enough for me to take advantage
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foolsgold
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Post by foolsgold on May 20, 2020 20:22:12 GMT
Sorry for digressing from the discussion but I just dont get it.
I took the decision today to sell off 30 percent of my folio to retain in cash.
I mostly invest in Global investment trusts and BTL properties
The market a present is sitting not far off what it was before the crash and in some investment trusts namely Scottish Mortage is well above the crash price.
Our world economy is about to go into meltdown with mass unemployment and as I see it deflation in the short term but with all the money printing I think it will lead to rising inflation as I think the Government will want to inflate away our national debt rather than carry out financial repression on our citizens with wage rise being under the rate of inflation.
Interest rates are being cut so mortgages are cheap for BTL properties which is a real asset and gold prices rising but government debt auctions going negative for the first time so people are now willing to loan governments and pay for the government to take their loan as they must then fear deflation in the near time and on the contrary NOT fear inflation as bonds dont like inflation it doesnt make sense due to money printing.
Share prices are possibly rising as investors are looking for a safe harbour against rising inflation and willing to buy into global investment trusts which hold shares in companies that might not exist or be lesser in value in a few months time.
Are we in a share price bubble?...I just dont understand the market upward movement hence my decision to go 30 percent cash...basically hedging my bets not wanting to miss out on a further rally and also having sufficient cash to average down in the event of a share crash.
Where do we see the market going in the next 6 months...1 year...5 year horizon....?
I think we have a deflationary environment just now developing into an inflationary one but how will it effect global share prices over the short ..medium and long term?....are bonds a good investment with the Euro situation and the failure f the german courts to back the Corona bonds...?...personally I wouldnt trust them and would rather take on more mortgage debt on BTL as inflation will inflate my own BTL debt away ...is the EU going to collapse?...the American economy is on the brink yet the dow jones is flying yet millions of Americans are unemployed....can anyone make any sense of whats going on or any thoughts of the future?...just thoughts....I know that we cannnot predict the future but am interested in peoples view and explanation of what they think is going on the direction of travel?
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on May 20, 2020 21:32:32 GMT
Sorry for digressing from the discussion but I just dont get it.
I took the decision today to sell off 30 percent of my folio to retain in cash.
I mostly invest in Global investment trusts and BTL properties
The market a present is sitting not far off what it was before the crash and in some investment trusts namely Scottish Mortage is well above the crash price.
Our world economy is about to go into meltdown with mass unemployment and as I see it deflation in the short term but with all the money printing I think it will lead to rising inflation as I think the Government will want to inflate away our national debt rather than carry out financial repression on our citizens with wage rise being under the rate of inflation.
Interest rates are being cut so mortgages are cheap for BTL properties which is a real asset and gold prices rising but government debt auctions going negative for the first time so people are now willing to loan governments and pay for the government to take their loan as they must then fear deflation in the near time and on the contrary NOT fear inflation as bonds dont like inflation it doesnt make sense due to money printing.
Share prices are possibly rising as investors are looking for a safe harbour against rising inflation and willing to buy into global investment trusts which hold shares in companies that might not exist or be lesser in value in a few months time.
Are we in a share price bubble?...I just dont understand the market upward movement hence my decision to go 30 percent cash...basically hedging my bets not wanting to miss out on a further rally and also having sufficient cash to average down in the event of a share crash.
Where do we see the market going in the next 6 months...1 year...5 year horizon....?
I think we have a deflationary environment just now developing into an inflationary one but how will it effect global share prices over the short ..medium and long term?....are bonds a good investment with the Euro situation and the failure f the german courts to back the Corona bonds...?...personally I wouldnt trust them and would rather take on more mortgage debt on BTL as inflation will inflate my own BTL debt away ...is the EU going to collapse?...the American economy is on the brink yet the dow jones is flying yet millions of Americans are unemployed....can anyone make any sense of whats going on or any thoughts of the future?...just thoughts....I know that we cannnot predict the future but am interested in peoples view and explanation of what they think is going on the direction of travel?
Nobody knows. From your post it sounds like your investments outside of BTL were 100% equities and you are now 70:30 equities:cash. 70:30 is considered to be a good asset allocation , but still quite aggressive. I think you have found out that you have a lower tolerance for risk than you thought. Why not just stick with 70:30 from here on in, and stop worrying about it. I’m 100% equities (not including P2P which is about 15% and reducing). 100% is a bad idea for most people. I only do it because I have a secure job, a good DB pension scheme, and am not bothered at all by volatility.
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foolsgold
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Post by foolsgold on May 20, 2020 21:50:45 GMT
Sorry for digressing from the discussion but I just dont get it.
I took the decision today to sell off 30 percent of my folio to retain in cash.
I mostly invest in Global investment trusts and BTL properties
The market a present is sitting not far off what it was before the crash and in some investment trusts namely Scottish Mortage is well above the crash price.
Our world economy is about to go into meltdown with mass unemployment and as I see it deflation in the short term but with all the money printing I think it will lead to rising inflation as I think the Government will want to inflate away our national debt rather than carry out financial repression on our citizens with wage rise being under the rate of inflation.
Interest rates are being cut so mortgages are cheap for BTL properties which is a real asset and gold prices rising but government debt auctions going negative for the first time so people are now willing to loan governments and pay for the government to take their loan as they must then fear deflation in the near time and on the contrary NOT fear inflation as bonds dont like inflation it doesnt make sense due to money printing.
Share prices are possibly rising as investors are looking for a safe harbour against rising inflation and willing to buy into global investment trusts which hold shares in companies that might not exist or be lesser in value in a few months time.
Are we in a share price bubble?...I just dont understand the market upward movement hence my decision to go 30 percent cash...basically hedging my bets not wanting to miss out on a further rally and also having sufficient cash to average down in the event of a share crash.
Where do we see the market going in the next 6 months...1 year...5 year horizon....?
I think we have a deflationary environment just now developing into an inflationary one but how will it effect global share prices over the short ..medium and long term?....are bonds a good investment with the Euro situation and the failure f the german courts to back the Corona bonds...?...personally I wouldnt trust them and would rather take on more mortgage debt on BTL as inflation will inflate my own BTL debt away ...is the EU going to collapse?...the American economy is on the brink yet the dow jones is flying yet millions of Americans are unemployed....can anyone make any sense of whats going on or any thoughts of the future?...just thoughts....I know that we cannnot predict the future but am interested in peoples view and explanation of what they think is going on the direction of travel?
Nobody knows. From your post it sounds like your investments outside of BTL were 100% equities and you are now 70:30 equities:cash. 70:30 is considered to be a good asset allocation , but still quite aggressive. I think you have found out that you have a lower tolerance for risk than you thought. Why not just stick with 70:30 from here on in, and stop worrying about it. I’m 100% equities (not including P2P which is about 15% and reducing). 100% is a bad idea for most people. I only do it because I have a secure job, a good DB pension scheme, and am not bothered at all by volatility. Correct within my share ISA I was 100 percent equities but have a fair amount of BTL and drip feed profits and cash into share ISAs on a regular basis so can always average down on a drop but with conflicting information that to me doesnt add up to the reality that globally we are going into a major recession that shares are still rising to the point pre covid crash whist the printing presses or cranking up...1 percent inflation today which is only because we are in lockdown and the economy has ground to stand still and bond yields going negative with possibly negative bank of England rates....eventally if you stretch an elastic band it will snap back and we have major inflation...personally Im jacking up my BTL mortage debt to the max as I have a good dividend yield and excellent tenants and rent insurance policies to cover non paying tenants....just dont understand the markets right now..cheers
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