ashtondav
Member of DD Central
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Post by ashtondav on Jan 17, 2020 10:28:12 GMT
83% of your loans ever made are defaults?
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Stonk
Stonking
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Post by Stonk on Jan 17, 2020 12:34:45 GMT
83% of your loans ever made are defaults?
I think investor1925 was extrapolating "2% in 9 days" to an annual figure -- with tongue in cheek, I hope! For a start, it's far too small a sample space to do that reasonably, not to mention the issue that it cannot possibly continue linearly. Hell, why not just take the 3 that defaulted on 14/1/20 (that would be 0.77% in 1 day), and extrapolate it to, err, 281% a year ... 
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jan 17, 2020 13:12:15 GMT
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Post by investor1925 on Jan 21, 2020 9:27:51 GMT
My portfolio is invested in 390 businesses. Recent defaults are: 16/1/20 1
14/1/20 3
13/1/20 1
10/1/20 1
8/1/20 2
That's around 2% in 9 days (or 83% in a year)
As for recoveries, I'll have to live to about 200 to see the end of it all  That's another 2 on the 20th Total is 10 for Jan so far, 382 remaining, that's 2.5% of my total in 20 days
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dorset
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Post by dorset on Jan 22, 2020 17:31:13 GMT
The lifetime default rate graph has just been updated by FC and now includes a full year on the 2018 cohort. Default rates after 12 months are shown as:
2018 2.4%
2017 2.3%
2016 2.1%
2015 1.6%
Looks like holders of 2018 loans are in for a tough remaining 48 months. Will be interesting to see how the 2019 loans are performing later this year. Will also give an early indication of how FC are squaring the growth rates against default rates dilemma.
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