TFTO
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Post by TFTO on Nov 12, 2014 11:02:10 GMT
We should be so lucky 
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Nov 12, 2014 11:54:54 GMT
I did think Andrew's similar rhetoric many months ago was ambitious but credible. That Stuart is reiterating it (and more) with just a few weeks to go makes me nervous about the whole window-dressing concept. Maybe they know something is going to explode in front of our eyes very shortly. Alas I won't be doing much as too many of my six month borrowers have decided they prefer not to pay back until they have to.
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Post by pepperpot on Nov 12, 2014 12:03:37 GMT
I picked up on the "develop its buy-to-let mortgage offering" which I think could be 'pulled in' from elsewhere in the assetz group, whether it's in time for 2014 end or they just want to have it in place for Nisa launch, I'd be very interested if the LTV's low (c50%).
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niceguy37
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Post by niceguy37 on Nov 12, 2014 12:05:04 GMT
Incredible. Literally. You know when AC is a mainstream lender/platform it will not be allowed to get away with this kind of press release without questions being asked in the daily mail and express. I did wonder why AC didn't simply put their best foot forward (announcing the £50 million milestone) without very likely shooting themselves in the foot (still declaring a goal of £100 million this year, which looks about as likely to be met as some government CO2 emissions targets). IMHO that hasn't boosted their credibility. (But I'm not privy to their plans and I'll be the first to apologise if AC do hit £100m in 2014, and I'll be delighted for them.)
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j
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Penguins are very misunderstood!
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Post by j on Nov 12, 2014 12:06:45 GMT
I wonder if something is happening very soon re:green fund & BTL options on the site. The statement is very bullish on hitting that £100m target. If they don't, it's egg on face time!......BIG egg
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Nov 12, 2014 13:29:32 GMT
Just a reminder, here's one quote of AH, Do you remember at the open day Andrew said he was confident that AC would have a £100M loan book by the end of the year. Any idea which year he was talking about? Harsh. I can't say much now on other plans we are working on but based on the liberum atfi index we have grown at 20% per month for the last 6 months. We will close out this month at £30m, June £36m, etc through to December that we close out at £107m. There are plans coming into place that will help deal flow. A I'm sure AC is better at maths than might first appear, but how are they gonna get there? The monthly growth targets have clearly dropped, Stuart has it at 15% now. |
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gnasher
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Post by gnasher on Nov 12, 2014 14:40:23 GMT
Any fool can lend but it takes an exceptional clever guy to get it all back plus interest. Only then should the accolades fly IMHO. I do wonder what expectations people have about p2b lending when they make statements like this. Come on guys, if you are lending at a rate of 10%+ you are never going to get everything back unless YOU are either very good at DD or very lucky. Any p2b platform will have losses, that is a fact. If you do not like it you should not be lending here. Any return that is higher than the return on a FSA guaranteed cash account means that YOU are assuming some risk. If you have a loan portfolio of 10%+ then you are assuming a quite a lot of risk. Risk inevitably means some losses. Accolades should fly if AC achieves a reasonable to good loss rate on average over a period of time. Personally I expect an annual loss of say 2% per annum on my p2b lending. So in broad terms my 10%+ comes down to say 8%+ after losses, then down a bit more with the tax implications. As long as AC returns more than say the 6% rate that we can all get on the RS 5 year market, then it is doing OK as far as I am concerned. To date my AC return it is very much higher than that, so I for one am very happy with the AC performance so far.
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Post by andrewholgate on Nov 12, 2014 15:19:11 GMT
I've noted the feedback on this.
We closed 2013 at £9m. 2014 has seen more competition in the industry but we have originated more in 2014 than other platforms in our sector who had a 3 year start on us. I've got a big gap to close for the £100m.... Wish me luck!!
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oldgrumpy
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Post by oldgrumpy on Nov 12, 2014 15:25:11 GMT
Good luck, Andrew!!
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pikestaff
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Post by pikestaff on Nov 12, 2014 15:58:10 GMT
Any fool can lend but it takes an exceptional clever guy to get it all back plus interest. Only then should the accolades fly IMHO. I do wonder what expectations people have about p2b lending when they make statements like this. Come on guys, if you are lending at a rate of 10%+ you are never going to get everything back unless YOU are either very good at DD or very lucky. Any p2b platform will have losses, that is a fact. If you do not like it you should not be lending here. Any return that is higher than the return on a FSA guaranteed cash account means that YOU are assuming some risk. If you have a loan portfolio of 10%+ then you are assuming a quite a lot of risk. Risk inevitably means some losses. Accolades should fly if AC achieves a reasonable to good loss rate on average over a period of time. Personally I expect an annual loss of say 2% per annum on my p2b lending. So in broad terms my 10%+ comes down to say 8%+ after losses, then down a bit more with the tax implications. As long as AC returns more than say the 6% rate that we can all get on the RS 5 year market, then it is doing OK as far as I am concerned. To date my AC return it is very much higher than that, so I for one am very happy with the AC performance so far. I couldn't agree more.
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Post by andrewholgate on Nov 12, 2014 16:05:51 GMT
Just re-reading what was put in the blog, it says we will pass through £100m in the next year, not specifically by the end of 2014. Yes, we did make statements to such effect at the start of the year, and AltFi have picked up on that. Markets change and dynamics move. We still have 400% growth on last year which is not to be sniffed at.
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merlin
Minor shareholder in Assetz and many other companies.
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Post by merlin on Nov 12, 2014 16:08:33 GMT
Any fool can lend but it takes an exceptional clever guy to get it all back plus interest. Only then should the accolades fly IMHO. I do wonder what expectations people have about p2b lending when they make statements like this. Come on guys, if you are lending at a rate of 10%+ you are never going to get everything back unless YOU are either very good at DD or very lucky. Any p2b platform will have losses, that is a fact. If you do not like it you should not be lending here. Any return that is higher than the return on a FSA guaranteed cash account means that YOU are assuming some risk. If you have a loan portfolio of 10%+ then you are assuming a quite a lot of risk. Risk inevitably means some losses. Accolades should fly if AC achieves a reasonable to good loss rate on average over a period of time. Personally I expect an annual loss of say 2% per annum on my p2b lending. So in broad terms my 10%+ comes down to say 8%+ after losses, then down a bit more with the tax implications. As long as AC returns more than say the 6% rate that we can all get on the RS 5 year market, then it is doing OK as far as I am concerned. To date my AC return it is very much higher than that, so I for one am very happy with the AC performance so far. As you are directly quoting me I think I have a right of reply. Had you seen some of my previous posts you would have seen me warn others to recognise that losses go with the territory and that I also have a more courteous attitude to lending than you propose in your post. However it is losses that at the end of the day make or break a lender and a facilitator like AC. Right now AC are entering a zone where they are going to be sorely tested in recovering capital and interest from around half a dozen BL's that have not completed on time. If push becomes shove in some of these the original LTV's may well prove optimistic due to cost of recovering the debt. Then you can probably kiss the interest owing good bye and possibly some of the capital as well.
So far AC has only had one partial failure, FF. Fortunately more than half of the lenders capital has been recovered but the question remains as to whether or not all the capital and interest will also be recovered?
So my original affirmation remains that the real test of success is the recovery of capital and interest and remains the real and ultimate test. I will remain happy if AC achieve a failure rate of less than 3% but only if the average yield on loans is in double figures.
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Post by andrewholgate on Nov 12, 2014 17:02:21 GMT
I couldn't agree more. Recovery of the lender funds is paramount to the team.
A
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mikes1531
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Post by mikes1531 on Nov 12, 2014 19:01:46 GMT
My main irritation is the bit about features on the site being said to be available when they obviously are not. People are going to sign up on the basis of this press release thinking that global auto invest is available right now and it absolutely isn't. And there's a lack of new deals on the AM too. I agree. And I'll repeat what I said earlier... It's almost as if the blog/press release was written well in advance -- when AC thought all three phases of the new website/system would be live by now -- and didn't bother to check it when they actually reached the £50M milestone. Pretty poor, if you ask me. I came very close to putting in a blog comment asking how to access this new 'set your criteria' feature since I couldn't find it, but decided it wasn't worth my time. If anyone else would care to do that, feel free -- I won't claim the patent on the idea! 
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merlin
Minor shareholder in Assetz and many other companies.
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Post by merlin on Nov 13, 2014 23:41:15 GMT
I couldn't agree more. Recovery of the lender funds is paramount to the team. A andrewholgate I have to say in all seriousness so far you are doing really well on that front. No actual losses to date and roughly 130 loans commissioned, plus a few role overs. Only one loan gone down and over 60% of lenders money returned and a reasonable chance of recovery of the remainder. Most of the interest payments have been on time with a few lagging a bit behind. Great performance which IMO you are justly entitled to be proud of.
My risk management model was planning on 3% of your loans failing in the last year with a 50% recovery rate of capital over time. So currently I am well ahead of my risk model with a current gross rate of return of over 13% I can well afford the 3% loss if and when it happens.
Keep up the good work but please try to maintain a return in double figures it makes life easier for those of us who are higher rate tax payers.
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