criston
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Post by criston on Dec 31, 2019 17:26:05 GMT
Under any other circumstances I should have been sitting pretty. 1.5% of my portfolio in FS. 20% of loans repaid during administration. 20% of my total investment in 1559779559 (cattle) with 9% LTV. The remaining 60% in loans ranging from 33% to 60% LTV/GLTV & well researched before investing. Should I be looking on the bright side? Not at the moment I thinks. No dev loans? No second charge / junior ranking loans? Should be OK. Not sure about cattle, have a habit of wandering off or dying. Probably through old age by the time this is over. Still, might be a post-Administration BBQ out of it. (Open bar courtesy of the Administrators of course! Consider it putting the Liquid into Liquidation ... Don't milk it. I was hoping for someone to beef it up. Actually the Farm is the security, I HOPE.
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Dec 31, 2019 17:53:56 GMT
No dev loans? No second charge / junior ranking loans? Should be OK. Not sure about cattle, have a habit of wandering off or dying. Probably through old age by the time this is over. Still, might be a post-Administration BBQ out of it. (Open bar courtesy of the Administrators of course! Consider it putting the Liquid into Liquidation ... Don't milk it. I was hoping for someone to beef it up. Actually the Farm is the security, I HOPE. Yep - 59 acres of NI's greenest; not to mention the buildings and equipment. I think at 8.81% you'll be OK. (As you say, just need to trust / hope FS perfected the security on this one!)
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Dec 31, 2019 21:22:54 GMT
The maths are very wrong here according to my sums invest £1000 : £500 is written off and £500 pays 13% over 2 years give 500 x 126% after 2 years = £613 so that is a LOSS of £1000 - £613 = £387 loss (38.7%) They still look a little bit wrong ... Did you import your calculators from China? Cheap knock-offs from Wish? (Perhaps you unknowingly flogged one on to Godanubis ) In my head: 26% of £1000 is £260, so 26% of £500 is going to be half of that = £130; add back the £500 to give £630 which, as a return on the original £1000, gives a £370 shortfall - or 37% loss. End of year report reads "Could do better" Ditto for P2P in 2019.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Jan 1, 2020 3:14:25 GMT
No calculator required even if all current investments paid 20% of capital I would still be up over the period I invested. Of last 19 loans paid since administration check on. DD there was 1 property loan that was 11% loss the rest either paid in full or with minimum 9% interest.
Only big loss was on photo collection £2000 total loan value in 2 loans one paid about 39% the other over 50% loss spread over all investors. So anyone in the rest made a good profit. That’s the figures for those loans which make up greater than 10% of loans on the books.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Jan 1, 2020 3:25:50 GMT
The maths are very wrong here according to my sums invest £1000 : £500 is written off and £500 pays 13% over 2 years give 500 x 126% after 2 years = £613 so that is a LOSS of £1000 - £613 = £387 loss (38.7%) They still look a little bit wrong ... Did you import your calculators from China? Cheap knock-offs from Wish? (Perhaps you unknowingly flogged one on to Godanubis ) In my head: 26% of £1000 is £260, so 26% of £500 is going to be half of that = £130; add back the £500 to give £630 which, as a return on the original £1000, gives a £370 shortfall - or 37% loss. End of year report reads "Could do better" Ditto for P2P in 2019. That just shows the crazy 25% returns put forward here are just fantasy. The figures you just worked on assumed 100% loss. No first charge would return nothing without massive claim on valuers. Whitehaven was demolished and other issues with the borrower caused the loss and is highly atypical.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Jan 1, 2020 3:34:43 GMT
No dev loans? No second charge / junior ranking loans? Should be OK. Not sure about cattle, have a habit of wandering off or dying. Probably through old age by the time this is over. Still, might be a post-Administration BBQ out of it. (Open bar courtesy of the Administrators of course! Consider it putting the Liquid into Liquidation ... Don't milk it. I was hoping for someone to beef it up. Actually the Farm is the security, I HOPE. So the 20% you just got paid would be a profit then. Since you joined FS how much of your initial investments have you still got invested if take off interest and repayments paid.? What return of those loans would you need to get all your initial investment returned ? As you prudently said only 1.5% of your portfolio in FS so as should be would have little effect overall. My portfolio can vary 5% in a day with similar % in FS and no more than a couple of % of that in any one loan. Your diligence should make overall mitigation for the underperforming loans. There will be others that have higher % in individual loans and are therefore overexposed to higher loss risk. That is why there is no general accurate prediction to returns although you have confirmed 20% of you stake has just been paid. This may equate to an even greater % of your investment when interest is included. Lets hope the outcome for everyone is just a very good life lesson with little actual pain.
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Godanubis
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Post by Godanubis on Jan 1, 2020 3:56:29 GMT
Happy New year to all.
Contributions from all Views keep this a very interesting forum.
Let us hope the new year is profitable for all.
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jan 1, 2020 9:49:20 GMT
sorry got my maths wrong- should have used one of my non wish calculators not that the end result changes - most of us will be stuffed to a lesser or major degree
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foolsgold
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Post by foolsgold on Jan 1, 2020 12:43:58 GMT
Happy new year to one and all.
A wide range of views on the site and enjoying reading this thread in particular.
Best I can hope for is my capital return on this one.Ive been invested for 3 years I think it was the middle of 2018 I started withdrawing my funds rather than reinvesting and managed to get about 13K out which is a small compared to my original investment in FS so have a significant sum still invested
Things just didnt look right in 2018 with a lack of updates or updates kicking the can down the road.
I hope that every one of us gets or money back and am grateful to the efforts made by the elected members of the CC committee.
Thanks to all the views posted
Best wishes to all
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Post by GSV3MIaC on Jan 5, 2020 21:38:48 GMT
Taking the thread title at face value.. WHAT 'net returns'.. afaict there have been none yet. Long time til anything drops out the other end of the sausage machine, no? I guess you could be happy with 0, but you'd be in a minority.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Jan 9, 2020 14:34:39 GMT
I logged in earlier and spotted "CG recovery fee" for 2223857946 loan recovery. Fee is about 3.4% of the outstanding capital, but no sign of getting the money out "soon".
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jan 9, 2020 15:12:36 GMT
how bloody much! Correct me if I am wrong but I thought this one has been repaid and 3.4% of £500,000 is £17,000. Also I thought the FS fee was paid when loans were renewed so why are the auditors taking a recovery fee rather than getting the fee ? I just don't see what the auditors have actually done here to justify £1.70 let alone £17K!
I guess £17K has gone into the auditors account whilst nothing has gone into ours
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Jan 9, 2020 15:23:04 GMT
how bloody much! Correct me if I am wrong but I thought this one has been repaid and 3.4% of £500,000 is £17,000. Also I thought the FS fee was paid when loans were renewed so why are the auditors taking a recovery fee rather than getting the fee ? I just don't see what the auditors have actually done here to justify £1.70 let alone £17K! I guess £17K has gone into the auditors account whilst nothing has gone into ours This one was defaulted (by the Administrators) so technically, a fee was applicable. We don't know how much the borrower repaid in total. Maybe it was only the principal and borrower interest - the latter reduced by the Admin fees. So technically, the Administrators are doing what "everyone" wants them to. Redeem loans abso-bloody-lutely asap. (Maybe they could have sweated the borrower for more? How long would lenders have given them?) I'd qualify this as a small victory. Make the most of it (if you're in it).
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foolsgold
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Post by foolsgold on Jan 9, 2020 17:04:41 GMT
I presume once the Administrators take there fee and the borrower has repaid the loan plus interest including the additional charge that FS would have charged as per the condition of the initial loan their will be in some cases be a surplus. Will this money be left in the company as assets to be used to pay down other debtors to the company and will this surplus be used to honour promises to cover failures of FS including Barnoldswick and the Art loans?....
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Jan 9, 2020 18:07:29 GMT
I presume once the Administrators take there fee and the borrower has repaid the loan plus interest including the additional charge that FS would have charged as per the condition of the initial loan their will be in some cases be a surplus. Will this money be left in the company as assets to be used to pay down other debtors to the company and will this surplus be used to honour promises to cover failures of FS including Barnoldswick and the Art loans?.... My personal view is the number of post-Admin loans which redeem at 'full ticket price' - all capital, all interest and all fees - will be in the minority. Therefore, my expectation would be that the fees coming into FS' side of the ledger will be similarly small and eaten up by the 'keeping-the-lights-on' expenses of running the platform.
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