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Post by RateSetter on Jan 23, 2020 10:22:16 GMT
Good morning.
Today we have published the monthly update of portfolio statistics and also the quarterly review of the projections that underpin the Coverage Ratios. We've published a RateSetter Notice, which is copied below for reference.
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aju
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Post by aju on Jan 23, 2020 19:57:48 GMT
Interestingly RS focused on the %age point drop in the Interest rate cover (123% to 120%) but the %age point drop in the Capital cover (266% to 261%) was not discussed. That's quite a drop I feel.
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jlend
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Post by jlend on Jan 23, 2020 21:31:54 GMT
Worth remembering the comments relate to a single month.
For reference at the last quarterly update the numbers were:
"The Interest Coverage Ratio decreased to 130%
The Capital Coverage Ratio is unchanged at 278%"
So over the last quarter the interest coverage ratio has fallen from 130% to 120%.
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Post by Ace on Jan 23, 2020 22:02:43 GMT
Worth remembering the comments relate to a single month. For reference at the last quarterly update the numbers were: "The Interest Coverage Ratio decreased to 130% The Capital Coverage Ratio is unchanged at 278%" So over the last quarter the interest coverage ratio has fallen from 130% to 120%. Wow! At that rate of decrease it would only be 6 months before lenders will need to take a haircut on the interest rates.
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alanh
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Post by alanh on Jan 23, 2020 22:23:29 GMT
Not necessarily. These coverage ratios can be volatile and don't just move in one direction. For example, at the end of April 2019 the interest coverage ratio was 112% so if you use that as a comparison you could say it is on an improving trend. The average coverage ratio from Nov 2018 to date is 122% and we are currently slightly below that.
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Post by Ace on Jan 23, 2020 22:34:42 GMT
Not necessarily. These coverage ratios can be volatile and don't just move in one direction. For example, at the end of April 2019 the interest coverage ratio was 112% so if you use that as a comparison you could say it is on an improving trend. The average coverage ratio from Nov 2018 to date is 122% and we are currently slightly below that. Yes, I realise that it won't necessarily go that way, which is why I said "at that rate of decrease". I don't think it's valid to compare with the April 2019 figure as I think from memory they completely changed the way it was calculated after that date, which was a worry in itself. In summary: the ICR was falling worryingly low, so they changed the way it was calculated. Despite their best efforts, it's now rapidly falling again.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jan 23, 2020 23:21:46 GMT
I know I'm a broken record on this one, but the ICR is largely a red herring in my view. In the last 8 months it's increased from 112% to 120%, whilst the amount of cash in the provision fund has fallen from £13.1m to £9.3m.
Defaulted loans can't be repaid from ever improving future projections. Cash only.
NB - despite the projections improving all of the time, they still currently imply a net outflow of some £3.5m over the entire loan terms. Despite this being a negative figure, it still looks very ambitious indeed when you consider we're down £3.8m in the last 8 months alone.
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Post by p2plender on Jan 24, 2020 0:57:08 GMT
Doesn't take a financial expert to work out RS need to keep the rates they pay us low to keep this going. So it's either lower your expectations of your returns or risk a wonky fringe... It's tough out there for P2P lenders and investors. Count myself lucky I was a very early adapter to the P2P market. Later adapters have certainly had a nasty welcome by many platforms, and all this in so called 'benign times'. Imagine a recession environment??
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