r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jan 25, 2020 9:35:24 GMT
British pound could rally to $1.65 in 2020, strategist predicts
Amazing how much guff is still written like this, as if the forex market might not have already noticed the latest developments in Brexit. As if forex/stock markets aren't already a result of the best predictions we can make about the future. In this case, his stunning insight seems to be that Brexit is likely to go ahead <slow clap>. I think any article like this needs to start with "I'm <this guy>, and I've put 50% of my net wealth into this position" edit: sorry to be sarky, appreciate the reading TTH, but really this sort of stuff winds me up. It fundamentally (deliberately) misunderstands how efficient currency markets already are.
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Post by davee39 on Jan 25, 2020 9:48:49 GMT
Rather like the 'Snow Bombs' and Arctic UK temperatures regularly predicted by the 'Daily Express'.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Jan 25, 2020 9:51:10 GMT
Rather like the 'Snow Bombs' and Arctic UK temperatures regularly predicted by the 'Daily Express'. I'm thinking of investing in Nestle at the moment. No-one's eating ice creams now, but I reckon in a few months there could be some big business made.
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Post by wiseclerk on Jan 25, 2020 10:00:12 GMT
British pound pound could crash to $0.35 in 2020, my dog told me yesterday asking for secrecy. But I thought I tell you anyway.
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Post by dan1 on Jan 25, 2020 10:48:07 GMT
British pound could rally to $1.65 in 2020, strategist predicts
What's your personal prediction for GBP in 2020? I assume it's inline with this "strategist" otherwise why bring it to our attention?
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ant1
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Post by ant1 on Jan 25, 2020 11:49:44 GMT
such a jump in sterling would be nice to see, but I think there is more chance of Manchester United winning the Premiership this year.
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Jan 25, 2020 12:05:52 GMT
1 remember the good old days when it was nearly $2 to the pound. Rather than invest directly in currency I invest in funds and shares that are reasonably stable with 5is % dividend in various currency if pound drops then the exchange rate increases the value and if that results in greater returns I sell. With zero cost in selling funds they are good way to follow currency fluctuation.
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Post by dan1 on Jan 25, 2020 12:43:19 GMT
What's your personal prediction for GBP in 2020? I assume it's inline with this "strategist" otherwise why bring it to our attention? My own prediction for cable? Well, my predicition is that if you are going to invest being diversified is the best strategy, that means not only holding different assets in the same country, but also different assets in different currencies.
That enough of a predicition for you?
I would suggest predicting currency over a 12 month period is a mug's game, black swans lurk round every corner, but not being aware that currency movements can make a differnce to your returns is an even bigger mistake. If your question is a broader one, I'm still long and bullish on UK assets, running the deep profits I have on buying US assets in 2009/10 and willing to expand my already substantial EM holdings. I'm most cautious of European holdings, but happy to take risk positions if I find compelling opportunities. I think those are still available in unlisted, family dominated European businesses if you can find a route in. Debt would seem the obvious approach.
I'm guessing you are less than bullish on Sterling?
Apologies, my post wasn't meant to antagonise. I'm interested in where you see GBP/USD over the next 12 months excepting black swan events of course (why does Taleb have it in for Tesla btw). I'd trust your opinion far more than someone paid to produce content, especially the Express-style click bait of the headline. No, I certainly didn't read the article!!! If you'd rather not say then that's fine with me. I'm actually quite bullish on Sterling long term. I'd say that 10% drop compared to pre-referendum of, say, the $1.40 level isn't unrealistic given the short/long term hit to the economy. I'd expect much volatility this year as the negotiations progress but I don't visualise < $1.20 with AOTBE. I don't expect impeachment proceedings against Trump or US elections to alter that view a great deal but continuing unrest in HK and the ME may well play a role as well as ongoing risks from pandemics as at present. Yes, I agree bullish on EM's as developed countries struggle against supporting an ageing population, low birth rate and the requirement for immigration being constrained by nationalism. A lot of stuff but having said all that I invest agnostic of all of that because I believe I have no edge over the likes of your greater self. There will always be opportunities regardless of market conditions.
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scc
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Post by scc on Jan 25, 2020 13:34:03 GMT
British pound pound could crash to $0.35 in 2020, my dog told me yesterday asking for secrecy. But I thought I tell you anyway. Unless you can provide certified evidence that said pooch has invested half of their dog biscuits in that position, I'm out.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jan 25, 2020 14:52:12 GMT
Interesting chat. Starting off with forex predictions which were slapped down as everything should already be priced in. That got me thinking is it unreasonable to nevertheless believe the market has it wrong - i.e. you believe it (whatever "it" is) should be higher or lower. That thought then seemed to be shared by one or two who talked about being "bullish" or "bearish" later on in the discussion. What is being bullish/bearish if not a belief the market currently has it wrong?
So are predictions really such a mind numblying stupid thing to discuss as some seemed to imply ?
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Jan 25, 2020 15:05:25 GMT
It looks like we've been moved. Enjoy your chat. I'm back off to WA  This does seem to be a general financial chat. It would be a shame to lose the OP (esp under somewhat unusual circumstances)
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jo
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Post by jo on Jan 25, 2020 15:25:32 GMT
Interesting chat. Starting off with forex predictions which were slapped down as everything should already be priced in. That got me thinking is it unreasonable to nevertheless believe the market has it wrong - i.e. you believe it (whatever "it" is) should be higher or lower. That thought then seemed to be shared by one or two who talked about being "bullish" or "bearish" later on in the discussion. What is being bullish/bearish if not a belief the market currently has it wrong? So are predictions really such a mind numblying stupid thing to discuss as some seemed to imply ? No. No they're not.
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Post by mrclondon on Jan 25, 2020 16:05:27 GMT
So are predictions really such a mind numblying stupid thing to discuss as some seemed to imply ? Absolutely not. Any sensible business that is exposed to currency risk (export or import) has to follow the wider picture, and in every rumour (aka speculative article) there is a grain of truth.
Last September (?) there was a discussion on here regarding a speculative prediction of a market bottom of $1.09 / £ within months. Now in that case any technical currency trader could spot immediately that the figure wasn't just some random number but was the most likely support level given the 1985 low. $1.65 is similiarly very likely based on a technical trading resistance level - the post 2008-9 global financial crisis highs between 2010 & 2015. Historically I have been skeptical about the technical trading "mumbo-jumbo" but I have been persuaded that the extent of auto trading algorithms in use these days means that in the normal course of events technical trading analysis will accurately predict the trading range (which is currently c. $1.10 - $1.65 / £).
Now for the bad news ... it seems likely that GBP will strengthen considerably over the next 1 to 2 years as the markets finally realise that brexit is not the end of the world. The fact we have shifted from articles speculating $1.10 to articles speculating $1.65 / £ over the last four months is simply a media/commentariat focus on 'worst case' in the general direction of travel. The grain of truth I mentioned .... GBP is going to be stronger than many expect. A grim reality for many of the manufacturing business owners I know.
What has shifted sentiment so markedly ? Primarily the expressions of interest in inward investment into the UK (England & Wales) are much higher than anyone expected at this stage in the brexit "lifecycle". The concept of 'freeports' has generated a level of interest way beyond expectations, and may explain why this was omited from the Queens speech in December (really needs more thought to avoid introducing major new distortions in the UK economy.). Although also possibly not centre stage this year to avoid antagonizing EU during trade negotiations.
Yes, the currency markets are reasonably efficeint, and price in likely outcomes, but are to an extent still being pulled in multiple directions by traders (and their behind the scenes analysts) who don't really understand the economy (on both sides of the equation US & UK) and the implications of the political landscape. One further factor to bear in mind, there will still be a few currency traders that think Trump won't be President next February. Like there were those who decided it was impossible for BJ to form a majority givernment let alone achieve a landslide majority.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Jan 25, 2020 16:44:30 GMT
It looks like we've been moved. Enjoy your chat. I'm back off to WA Have a good time, and enjoy your 20hr flight
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keitha
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2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on Jan 26, 2020 9:45:36 GMT
go on then
£ Vs Dollar 1.40
£ vs Euro 1.31
FTSE 100 at 1/1/21 8114
FTSE Small cap 6600
ladbaby to have a vegan Christmas number 1
Trump to lose US election, but win the electoral college against Sanders ( Biden appears to be being sacrificed in the impeachment farce )
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