hazellend
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,363 
Likes: 2,180
|
Post by hazellend on Feb 12, 2020 21:51:58 GMT
But how is this professor’s opinion “actionable”? As a starting point for your own research / due dilligence / anaysis / sector allocations etc
In general terms I don't subscribe to the view that markets are accurately pricing in probabilities of various events. There is simply too much fake news floating around (in general terms not specifically this virus ... think brexit as a better example) that is accepted as "fact" (at least to the extent of being more likely to be correct than not).
In terms of this particular analysis, coupled with everything we've known about the slowdown in EU manufacturing output and the major polictical difficulties the ruling parties in Germany and France are experiencing, when I re-enter the markets in the weeks or months ahead I'm likely to reduce my exposure to EU markets vs the exposure % I had determined a couple of years back.
Fair enough and good luck to you then. As a passive investor I thank you for providing liquidity to the markets 
|
|
|
|
Post by bernythedolt on Feb 13, 2020 2:26:50 GMT
Wow, all bets are off. It's suddenly gone crazy. Look at the blue graph here. What was slowly reducing from 4,000 new cases daily to 2,000 new cases daily has suddenly gone through the roof. 15,000 new cases in one day 😲. Just look at that blue graph, it's completely incredible. I can only think something has gone wrong with the reporting system in China. Maybe linked to their mass return to work yesterday? Who knows, but something's not right here. EDIT: Ah, they've moved the goalposts:- "Report from Hubei: 14,840 new cases and 242 new deaths." Surge in number of cases and deaths is due for the most part to the adoption of a new diagnosis classification. In conformity with other provinces, starting with Feb. 12 counts, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases. Of the 14,840 cases added, 13,332 are due to the new classification while 1,508 are new cases." Back to the drawing board... |
|
benaj
Member of DD Central
N/A
Posts: 5,608
Likes: 1,738
|
Post by benaj on Feb 13, 2020 6:32:27 GMT
Wow, all bets are off. It's suddenly gone crazy. Look at the blue graph here. What was slowly reducing from 4,000 new cases daily to 2,000 new cases daily has suddenly gone through the roof. 15,000 new cases in one day 😲. Just look at that blue graph, it's completely incredible. I can only think something has gone wrong with the reporting system in China. Maybe linked to their mass return to work yesterday? Who knows, but something's not right here. EDIT: Ah, they've moved the goalposts:- "Report from Hubei: 14,840 new cases and 242 new deaths." Surge in number of cases and deaths is due for the most part to the adoption of a new diagnosis classification. In conformity with other provinces, starting with Feb. 12 counts, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases. Of the 14,840 cases added, 13,332 are due to the new classification while 1,508 are new cases." Back to the drawing board... The surge may suggest people are ready to report the truth in China now.
|
|
r00lish67
Member of DD Central
Posts: 2,692
Likes: 4,048
|
Post by r00lish67 on Feb 13, 2020 8:07:01 GMT
Wow, all bets are off. It's suddenly gone crazy. Look at the blue graph here. What was slowly reducing from 4,000 new cases daily to 2,000 new cases daily has suddenly gone through the roof. 15,000 new cases in one day 😲. Just look at that blue graph, it's completely incredible. I can only think something has gone wrong with the reporting system in China. Maybe linked to their mass return to work yesterday? Who knows, but something's not right here. EDIT: Ah, they've moved the goalposts:- "Report from Hubei: 14,840 new cases and 242 new deaths." Surge in number of cases and deaths is due for the most part to the adoption of a new diagnosis classification. In conformity with other provinces, starting with Feb. 12 counts, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases. Of the 14,840 cases added, 13,332 are due to the new classification while 1,508 are new cases." Back to the drawing board... <post deleted as I think I may have seen an outdated price, or at least it very quickly changed!>.
|
|
|
|
Post by southseacompany on Feb 13, 2020 10:23:38 GMT
I'll add my view from a position of boots on the ground, as I am now in China (Nanjing, Jiangsu province). Since yesterday, all pharmacies in the city are forbidden to cell paracetamol and other antipyretic OTC medicines, because people are using them to suppress fever to avoid quarantine. There is a mandatory temperature checkpoint at the entrance of the yard where I live. Recently, I watched the guard take readings for a few moments. According to his numbers, one of the people entering had a body temperature of 33.3 degrees; none were above 36. You might think it's evident that the thermometer is defective, but either that was not evident to the guards, or they did not care. I'm only seeing a tiny corner of a huge country, but from what I've seen, I'd say the assumption that the quarantine measures would stop the virus any time soon is highly optimistic. I, for one, have greatly reduced my equity exposure in recent weeks. BTW if you think it's odd that even symptomatic people are actively avoiding the quarantine, the same thing happened in London: all that could conceal their distempers did it, to prevent their neighbours shunning and refusing to converse with them, and also to prevent authority shutting up their houses (from A Journal of the Plague Year (1722)) |
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,624
Likes: 6,437
|
Post by registerme on Feb 13, 2020 10:31:04 GMT
I'll add my view from a position of boots on the ground, as I am now in China (Nanjing, Jiangsu province). Since yesterday, all pharmacies in the city are forbidden to cell paracetamol and other antipyretic OTC medicines, because people are using them to suppress fever to avoid quarantine. There is a mandatory temperature checkpoint at the entrance of the yard where I live. Recently, I watched the guard take readings for a few moments. According to his numbers, one of the people entering had a body temperature of 33.3 degrees; none were above 36. You might think it's evident that the thermometer is defective, but either that was not evident to the guards, or they did not care. I'm only seeing a tiny corner of a huge country, but from what I've seen, I'd say the assumption that the quarantine measures would stop the virus any time soon is highly optimistic. I, for one, have greatly reduced my equity exposure in recent weeks. BTW if you think it's odd that even symptomatic people are actively avoiding the quarantine, the same thing happened in London: all that could conceal their distempers did it, to prevent their neighbours shunning and refusing to converse with them, and also to prevent authority shutting up their houses (from A Journal of the Plague Year (1722)) That's not encouraging  .
|
|
|
|
Post by bernythedolt on Feb 13, 2020 15:25:38 GMT
Certainly is, but nothing that can't be handled by a little remodelling of the data.  The 1508 new cases is the most important aspect - thankfully it's still following the gradual decline in the rate of new cases being reported. |
|
Greenwood2
Member of DD Central
Posts: 4,384
Likes: 2,784
Member is Online
|
Post by Greenwood2 on Feb 13, 2020 15:58:25 GMT
Certainly is, but nothing that can't be handled by a little remodelling of the data. The 1508 new cases is the most important aspect - thankfully it's still following the gradual decline in the rate of new cases being reported. Yes, just take the step out, all you want to see really is the trend.
|
|
michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
Posts: 5,703
Likes: 2,981
|
Post by michaelc on Feb 13, 2020 19:16:20 GMT
I'll add my view from a position of boots on the ground, as I am now in China (Nanjing, Jiangsu province). Since yesterday, all pharmacies in the city are forbidden to cell paracetamol and other antipyretic OTC medicines, because people are using them to suppress fever to avoid quarantine. There is a mandatory temperature checkpoint at the entrance of the yard where I live. Recently, I watched the guard take readings for a few moments. According to his numbers, one of the people entering had a body temperature of 33.3 degrees; none were above 36. You might think it's evident that the thermometer is defective, but either that was not evident to the guards, or they did not care. I'm only seeing a tiny corner of a huge country, but from what I've seen, I'd say the assumption that the quarantine measures would stop the virus any time soon is highly optimistic. I, for one, have greatly reduced my equity exposure in recent weeks. BTW if you think it's odd that even symptomatic people are actively avoiding the quarantine, the same thing happened in London: all that could conceal their distempers did it, to prevent their neighbours shunning and refusing to converse with them, and also to prevent authority shutting up their houses (from A Journal of the Plague Year (1722)) Most interesting post on the thread IMO. Witnessing al these measures in place and the unknown are you fearful? Are your friends and neighbours? I'm no medic but when you have a high temperature, my understanding is the temperature itself can be lethal and thus paracetamol etc can be life saving. No doubt there is a black market in it now.
|
|
|
|
Post by bernythedolt on Feb 13, 2020 21:13:42 GMT
[…] I'd say the assumption that the quarantine measures would stop the virus any time soon is highly optimistic […] Interesting, because only this morning I was musing about how well the various nations around the world have done to keep this thing at bay (if you trust the reported figures). You are referring to China of course, where you are. But looking elsewhere, there's India, with its massive population almost equalling China, somehow managing to limit to only 5 cases. There's Canada/USA with their large travelling Chinese contingents, only 22 cases between them and no deaths (travel might be restricted now, but it wasn't at the outset). The whole of Europe, <50 cases and no deaths. These seem remarkably low figures, given how readily it's spreading in China. The rest of the world seems to be doing a pretty good job of containment to be fair. It's still 99% confined to China, not what you might have expected by this stage. 1367 deaths in China and only 3 more for the entire rest of world must be a testament to quarantine measures (as well as medical services not yet swamped). Hopefully it will be on the decline everywhere before too long.
|
|
|
|
Post by bernythedolt on Feb 14, 2020 4:05:46 GMT
Only if we can determine the true number of daily added cases. Experts are now saying there's insufficient clarity in the data coming out of China and have asked them to explain further.
I won't be modelling the data again until it's more trustworthy (and TBH my contributions to this thread weren't going down too well in any case!).
|
|
|
|
Post by bracknellboy on Feb 14, 2020 7:04:14 GMT
Only if we can determine the true number of daily added cases. Experts are now saying there's insufficient clarity in the data coming out of China and have asked them to explain further. I won't be modelling the data again until it's more trustworthy (and TBH my contributions to this thread weren't going down too well in any case!). your contributions were going down fine. You can't please all of the people.....
|
|
|
|
Post by southseacompany on Feb 14, 2020 10:14:52 GMT
Witnessing al these measures in place and the unknown are you fearful? Are your friends and neighbours? I know a guy who's only been out of his apartment once in the last two weeks (he does go to the ground floor entrance to get deliveries), but he's an outlier. However, everyday life is disrupted, whether you worry about the virus or not. The country has supposedly "returned to work", but that only applies to specific companies, basically those connected to the government or important export manufacturers. Small companies that have no realistic chance of moving their operations to Vietnam will have to wait. My company (software, ~10 people) is only allowed to restart work in our office at the end of this month. In any case, schools are cancelled until the beginning of March, so those with kids could hardly work full time before then anyway. Many in this thread are trying to estimate the case fatality rate, but it seems clear to me that both the number of confirmed cases and the number of deaths coming from China are deliberately understated. With both inputs suspect, calculating a CFR is pretty hopeless. Seasonal flu kills perhaps half a million people per year. If Covid-19 were to spread globally, it would kill millions, but they would be the same group that die of seasonal flu, namely elderly, in ill health, and mostly in poor countries. The great human cost notwithstanding, if the quarantine measures have to be extended, there may come a time when the financial cost of containment matches or exceeds the cost of giving up. By the way, nobody in the thread seems to have mentioned the theory, yet unproven, that mortality is proportional to the incidence of ACE2 enzyme in lung cells (mentioned in a recent medRxiv paper on the virus). If correct, this would predict that mortality is much lower for women and for most ethnic groups besides East Asians. There isn't enough data to make conclusions on ethnicity, but there is so far a clear gender difference in mortality which matches the prediction.
|
|
|
|
Post by bracknellboy on Feb 14, 2020 10:30:33 GMT
Witnessing al these measures in place and the unknown are you fearful? Are your friends and neighbours? ... By the way, nobody in the thread seems to have mentioned the theory, yet unproven, that mortality is proportional to the incidence of ACE2 enzyme in lung cells (mentioned in a recent medRxiv paper on the virus). If correct, this would predict that mortality is much lower for women and for most ethnic groups besides East Asians. There isn't enough data to make conclusions on ethnicity, but there is so far a clear gender difference in mortality which matches the prediction. That's interesting: I suspect its not well known to the lay community.
Nonetheless, having googled AEC2 enzyme, the one paper I clicked to actually contradicts the statement around ethnicity and gender. It says that no significant disparity in ACE2 gene expression was found by racial groups (Asian vs Caucasian), gender or age ( <60>). However significanlty higher was found in smoker samples versus non-smoker.
Interesting to know where the contradictory statements are.
|
|
james100
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,086
Likes: 1,287
|
Post by james100 on Feb 14, 2020 10:54:44 GMT
Witnessing al these measures in place and the unknown are you fearful? Are your friends and neighbours? By the way, nobody in the thread seems to have mentioned the theory, yet unproven, that mortality is proportional to the incidence of ACE2 enzyme in lung cells (mentioned in a recent medRxiv paper on the virus). If correct, this would predict that mortality is much lower for women and for most ethnic groups besides East Asians. There isn't enough data to make conclusions on ethnicity, but there is so far a clear gender difference in mortality which matches the prediction. No, that's very interesting. But I was wondering this morning how mortality varies with air quality i.e. the effect of long term exposure to poor air quality on lung health and/or impact on regeneration capabilities. I hope you're OK...it's all quite surreal.
|
|
.
