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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 7:50:35 GMT
"thought"...data
the only person who suggested this was Trump, so pretty much his norm.
Chatting to my greengrocer across the market stall, UK veg prices are about to rise as the Ukranians didn't make it over the channel and picking and planting is going to be tough. Only those veg that are well automated will make it onto our table in the coming year or those from Italy/Netherlands/Spain that make it on the truck.
If you know anyone who wants work
Interesting. I'm British but have family ties in Ukraine. I didn't think Ukranians were allowed to work in the UK? If actually they are, please let me know what kind of visa they would get? Are you sure you don't mean Polish, Lithuanian, other eastern eu country ? 1) yes there is an annual Ukraine farm workers quota
and
2) other eastern European countries have their own arrangements
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Apr 11, 2020 9:00:59 GMT
When I worked in the construction industry it got to the stage where you couldn't break wind without a risk assessment. For every task on site you had to identify the hazards, decide on the severity of that hazard and decide the likelihood of somebody coming into contact with that hazard. Multiply the severity by the likelihood and you get a risk factor for the operation in question.
So:
- what is the likelihood of somebody sneezing near you in the supermarket?
- what if the likelihood of them having the virus?
- what is the likelihood of them not having a tissue to cover their mouth when they sneeze?
- if somebody with the virus sneezes near you and doesn't cover their mouth what is the likelihood of you becoming infected?
If you can put a figure against all of those and produce a likelihood of getting infected at the supermarket I will accept that the animation has some value. If not then it probably isn't worth a lot. It is probably still the case that the most dangerous part of going shoping is the car journey to the supermarket.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 11, 2020 9:56:42 GMT
Or my interpretation, to guarantee your chances (with no idea of viral load etc):- 1. Don't catch it. 2. Don't be male. 3. Don't smoke. 4. Don't be overweight. 5. Don't have any serious (as in you're probably already talking to your doctor about them) underling health problems 6. Then roll the dice as to your inherited / nurtured immune system. I'm not sure that's going to make much of this forum audience feel better about things . Looking at your latest paper and comparing with "normal" pneumonia, it looks like we should add 7. Don't be BAME Unexpected and haven't seen it reported anywhere, but the figures give non-white as 11% for previous years' pneumonia, but three times higher (35%) for Covid. It also looks to me like "No 5. comorbidities" has been overplayed somewhat. The Guardian reports "The head of the British Medical Association has called on the government to urgently investigate if and why black, Asian and minority ethnic people are more vulnerable to Covid-19, after the first 10 doctors in the UK named as having died from the virus were all BAME."
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bernythedolt
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Post by bernythedolt on Apr 11, 2020 11:33:22 GMT
How has a relatively backward country like Venezuala, with rampant hyperinflation, starving people, 90% poverty, suffering sanctions from the US, and led by a despot, managed to achieve more testing per million of their people than the UK? Why is our supposedly advanced nation so much in the shadow of countries like Ireland, New Zealand, Canada, Australia and Spain in terms of tests per million? In fact almost all the OECD nations have managed more tests per head than us. I hope there is an inquiry to follow. www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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one21
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Post by one21 on Apr 11, 2020 11:34:21 GMT
When I worked in the construction industry it got to the stage where you couldn't break wind without a risk assessment. For every task on site you had to identify the hazards, decide on the severity of that hazard and decide the likelihood of somebody coming into contact with that hazard. Multiply the severity by the likelihood and you get a risk factor for the operation in question.
So:
- what is the likelihood of somebody sneezing near you in the supermarket?
- what if the likelihood of them having the virus?
- what is the likelihood of them not having a tissue to cover their mouth when they sneeze?
- if somebody with the virus sneezes near you and doesn't cover their mouth what is the likelihood of you becoming infected?
If you can put a figure against all of those and produce a likelihood of getting infected at the supermarket I will accept that the animation has some value. If not then it probably isn't worth a lot. It is probably still the case that the most dangerous part of going shoping is the car journey to the supermarket.
Been trying not to respond but my resolve has failed. The animation only shows 2 people, most large supermarkets up until a week or so ago (before restrictions) would have had hundreds. It’s not only spread by coughing or sneezing either, talking also (famous Politian spitting image character comes to mind). Also, being asymtomatic enters into the equation there are no true figures to go by. It seems a little strange to risk one's health on a spreadsheet prediction. This reasoning is probably why our mortality rate trajectory is following Italy’s. Edit - Apologies, I think I must have lost my sense of humour for a moment!
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Apr 11, 2020 11:51:18 GMT
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angrysaveruk
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Post by angrysaveruk on Apr 11, 2020 12:07:44 GMT
How has a relatively backward country like Venezuala, with rampant hyperinflation, starving people, 90% poverty, suffering sanctions from the US, and led by a despot, managed to achieve more testing per million of their people than the UK? Why is our supposedly advanced nation so much in the shadow of countries like Ireland, New Zealand, Canada, Australia and Spain in terms of tests per million? In fact almost all the OECD nations have managed more tests per head than us. I hope there is an inquiry to follow. www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/I would imagine the UK does not have the facilities to mass produce the tests itself so has to rely on importing test kits - which are not available. Germany probably has a few factories mass producing the test kits, and that is why they are able to perform wide scale testing. I don't know much about Venezuala but they might have some form pharmaceutical industry there or more likely due to the geopolitical situation China might have sent them a pile of test kits.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Apr 11, 2020 12:20:34 GMT
Does anyone know what's kind of environment are the NHS staffs working in hospitals treating Covid patients? Italy: Spain: Wuhan, China: Chicago, USA: The UK have more makeshift hospitals being built, I start to wonder if there are enough adequate of PPE for staffs working there.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 12:27:55 GMT
I'm deeply in the PPE stream at the moment, generally the frontline NHS have what they need but possibly distributed unevenly hence causing short shortages. So big picture good, small picture not so good. Ambulance staff getting better and more sophisticated material as far as I can see
Some problems with beards and people with glasses, odd shaped faces, leading to modifications and alterations
Outside the NHS and hospitals the situation is more variable.
GPs are having issues with scrubs and some masking but that is almost back under control (NB scrub washing rates are well up causing laundry issues)
Care homes and local home visiting nurses are at the back of the queue. A whole load of people are picking up the slack with 3D printing and home sewing. This is also happening in France (where I have good contacts).
Raw material for PPE may become an issue but even here stocks are coming through from locked down cotton factories
I'm more concerned by supermarket staff around th country who are begining to relax into the new way of working so not distancing within store.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Apr 11, 2020 13:06:34 GMT
May be it would be more reassuring if the Health Secretary there are enough PPE for at least 2 months. According to the BBC, but is it enough for a period of time and delivered to where it needs?
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dovap
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Post by dovap on Apr 11, 2020 13:35:58 GMT
figures (10/4), again from DHSC, 73,758 cases/8,958 deaths, increases of 8,681/980 resp
figures 11/4 DHSC, 78991 cases/9875 deaths, increases of 5233/918 resp
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 11, 2020 13:40:35 GMT
figures (10/4), again from DHSC, 73,758 cases/8,958 deaths, increases of 8,681/980 resp figures 11/4 DHSC, 78991 cases/9875 deaths, increases of 5233/918 resp My arbitrary rolling 7-day average trendline still shows the increasing slowing, albeit by a really small amount (probably be better to wait until mid-week in case there's an extended 'weekend effect' due to the Easter break)
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2020 14:45:48 GMT
The oxygen bottles in the Spanish video are just sitting on their bases, that is dangerous practise, anyone else seen what happens when a valve is knocked off one of them, nasty.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Apr 11, 2020 15:13:00 GMT
I'm deeply in the PPE stream at the moment, generally the frontline NHS have what they need but possibly distributed unevenly hence causing short shortages. So big picture good, small picture not so good. Ambulance staff getting better and more sophisticated material as far as I can see
Some problems with beards and people with glasses, odd shaped faces, leading to modifications and alterations
Outside the NHS and hospitals the situation is more variable.
GPs are having issues with scrubs and some masking but that is almost back under control (NB scrub washing rates are well up causing laundry issues)
Care homes and local home visiting nurses are at the back of the queue. A whole load of people are picking up the slack with 3D printing and home sewing. This is also happening in France (where I have good contacts).
Raw material for PPE may become an issue but even here stocks are coming through from locked down cotton factories
I'm more concerned by supermarket staff around th country who are begining to relax into the new way of working so not distancing within store.
Great summary thanks for that but couldn't resist replying to your final comment. I went to Tescos yesterday using click&collect. The girl brining out my shopping was constantly applying gel to her hands (every minute). I thought it was in response to my humdinger of a mask which might have made her worry I've "got it". Anyway got into a small chat at 3+ metres and it turns out she is terrified of catching it as are some of her co-workers despite being younger than 30. They have no ppe at all except hand gel despite meeting hundreds of customers per day. So my point is they need ppe also as do any keyworkers and in fact as I've "banged on" about previously in this thread I think we all need it. The gov needs to apologise for not having enough and then going hell for leather producing more. They also need to stop this lie about ppe not being effective.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Apr 11, 2020 15:19:12 GMT
figures (10/4), again from DHSC, 73,758 cases/8,958 deaths, increases of 8,681/980 resp figures 11/4 DHSC, 78991 cases/9875 deaths, increases of 5233/918 resp My arbitrary rolling 7-day average trendline still shows the increasing slowing, albeit by a really small amount (probably be better to wait until mid-week in case there's an extended 'weekend effect' due to the Easter break)
Really useful thanks. Do you have the same graph for the total number of uk cases ?
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