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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 17, 2020 12:15:28 GMT
Couldn't resist a chuckle that they were stolen by "three masked men"! That should narrow it down...  |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2020 14:46:32 GMT
Interesting, just seen an email update from the health practice I was registered at in HK a few years back.
Quite lengthy, but their conclusion really bears thinking about.
"The serious risk is to the public health system, not the individual."
The key figures are not just the death rate, but the rate needing critical medical intervention and/or intensive care, coupled with unknown long-term prognosis. In addition, lack of herd immunity, lack of vaccines etc to prevent spread.
The rate in HK/Singapore is 8-9%, globally (ex-China) around 5% of cases in critical condition. As you can imagine, a rate at this level coupled with widespread infection could very quickly overwhelm medical facilities.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2020 14:53:41 GMT
And of course, the other side-effect of overwhelmed medical facilities is - death rates will be higher from everything, not just from coronavirus itself.
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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 18, 2020 3:43:36 GMT
Leaving aside China, there are now more cases (454) stemming from that cruise ship Diamond Princess than the entire rest of the world put together (443). Staggering really!
Hopefully some lessons learned for the virologists/epidemiologists or whoever studies these things.
Spread by the aircon would be my guess, based on zero knowledge and pure gut feeling.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Feb 18, 2020 9:12:24 GMT
Leaving aside China, there are now more cases (454) stemming from that cruise ship Diamond Princess than the entire rest of the world put together (443). Staggering really! Hopefully some lessons learned for the virologists/epidemiologists or whoever studies these things. Spread by the aircon would be my guess, based on zero knowledge and pure gut feeling. I do wonder how would any government response if this type of virus starts spreading in Cat A prisons.
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 18, 2020 9:22:03 GMT
Leaving aside China, there are now more cases (454) stemming from that cruise ship Diamond Princess than the entire rest of the world put together (443). Staggering really! Hopefully some lessons learned for the virologists/epidemiologists or whoever studies these things. Spread by the aircon would be my guess, based on zero knowledge and pure gut feeling. Yes, I can't help thinking that this is not more tests coming out +ve just because of elongated incubation period, but rather that it is actively spreading. If I was on that ship I'd be far from happy. I can understand its a convenient quarantine environment, but perhaps one that is not truly allowing individual isolation, just isolation from the rest of the planet. You can't help but think it would be right for countries to take responsibility for their own citizens and bring them back and put them in isolation, where the numbers and facilities allow.
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james100
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Post by james100 on Feb 18, 2020 9:48:54 GMT
Leaving aside China, there are now more cases (454) stemming from that cruise ship Diamond Princess than the entire rest of the world put together (443). Staggering really! Hopefully some lessons learned for the virologists/epidemiologists or whoever studies these things. Spread by the aircon would be my guess, based on zero knowledge and pure gut feeling. Yes, I can't help thinking that this is not more tests coming out +ve just because of elongated incubation period, but rather that it is actively spreading. If I was on that ship I'd be far from happy. I can understand its a convenient quarantine environment, but perhaps one that is not truly allowing individual isolation, just isolation from the rest of the planet. You can't help but think it would be right for countries to take responsibility for their own citizens and bring them back and put them in isolation, where the numbers and facilities allow. Agreed. But it's very hard to evacuate individual groups off a ship without chaos, peripheral infection risk etc. and Yokohama is only 30 mins from Tokyo. All it takes is one person (passenger, evacuation support worker, whatever, to slip through the net and get on the subway... I'd guess the Japanese government would choose Olympics over the health of those passengers, and that the citizenship nations of all passengers would need to coordinate and evacuation to respective countries at the same time and not a piecemeal approach. It's easier and possibly safer to let the virus run its course as horrible as that is. Edit: I hadn't realized the US had already flown their lot out. I guess the government here may then feel sufficiently pressurized to do something!
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Feb 18, 2020 9:58:07 GMT
BBC reports (from data released by China) how Coronavirus mortality rate increases sharply with age (no real surprise there unfortunately.), running at close to 15% for those aged 80+.
Meanwhile, this shows mortality rate calculated from closed cases (i.e. where patient has died/recovered) now down to 13%.
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 18, 2020 10:01:54 GMT
Yes, I can't help thinking that this is not more tests coming out +ve just because of elongated incubation period, but rather that it is actively spreading. If I was on that ship I'd be far from happy. I can understand its a convenient quarantine environment, but perhaps one that is not truly allowing individual isolation, just isolation from the rest of the planet. You can't help but think it would be right for countries to take responsibility for their own citizens and bring them back and put them in isolation, where the numbers and facilities allow. Agreed. But it's very hard to evacuate individual groups off a ship without chaos, peripheral infection risk etc. and Yokohama is only 30 mins from Tokyo. All it takes is one person (passenger, evacuation support worker, whatever, to slip through the net and get on the subway... I'd guess the Japanese government would choose Olympics over the health of those passengers, and that the citizenship nations of all passengers would need to coordinate and evacuation to respective countries at the same time and not a piecemeal approach. It's easier and possibly safer to let the virus run its course as horrible as that is. Not sure it is in fact that difficult. Coaches harbour side. Off-the ship, shepherded from boat straight to coach. If they know they are being transported from dockside to airport to their home country (wherever that is) then I don't see why anyone would want to go astray, let alone be able to.
Its also probably an international terminal isn't it ? And therefore probably already has a level of perimeter and reception security not dissimilar to an airport ?
Different story for the Japanese nationals though, and I don't know what %age of the passengers are from Japan. Japan won't want to swamp its onshore facilities.
Of course there is a risk that if (when actually) the US citizens are invited to disembark, others without an "escape route" might create merry hell and try and join (assuming you aren't physically locking them in their cabins).
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james100
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Post by james100 on Feb 18, 2020 10:37:50 GMT
Agreed. But it's very hard to evacuate individual groups off a ship without chaos, peripheral infection risk etc. and Yokohama is only 30 mins from Tokyo. All it takes is one person (passenger, evacuation support worker, whatever, to slip through the net and get on the subway... I'd guess the Japanese government would choose Olympics over the health of those passengers, and that the citizenship nations of all passengers would need to coordinate and evacuation to respective countries at the same time and not a piecemeal approach. It's easier and possibly safer to let the virus run its course as horrible as that is. I have to say I don't like what you are inferring in your post, frankly it stinks of someone unfamiliar with Japan when you say "choosing Olympics over health of passengers". Might I humbly suggest that there's likely more to it than meets the eye and that you stay away from the horrible journalists working for media outlets who's job is to look for a good story or push the grey areas when there isn't one. I used to live in Tokyo and considerable experience with both the government's approach to disease containment and the healthcare system. Thank you so much for your 'humble' feedback and have a great day.
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 18, 2020 11:48:10 GMT
Leaving aside China, there are now more cases (454) stemming from that cruise ship Diamond Princess than the entire rest of the world put together (443). Staggering really! Hopefully some lessons learned for the virologists/epidemiologists or whoever studies these things. Spread by the aircon would be my guess, based on zero knowledge and pure gut feeling. Get with the times ;-)
"On Tuesday, Japanese officials said there were 88 new cases of infections on board the ship, bringing the total to 542 confirmed cases. It is the largest cluster of cases outside China."
Frankly, surely they are now at a point where they need to get people OFF to provide effective quarantine, not keep them ON to do so.
I can see some almighty court cases coming along down the line.
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jonno
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Post by jonno on Feb 18, 2020 12:12:38 GMT
I used to live in Tokyo and considerable experience with both the government's approach to disease containment and the healthcare system. Thank you so much for your 'humble' feedback and have a great day. I suppose you're also going to tell me you've got a PhD in virology and are the world's leading expert on 2019-nCoV ? The internet is full of armchair experts assisted by their teams of journalists. @wallstreet You really are a paradox aren't you? Whist I happen to agree with the majority the content of your posts, do you not realise that the way in which you usually deliver them severely dilutes the impact that they make? You really must take into account that the majority of posters on here are not as smart as you; and constantly reminding us of that fact through the tone of your posts does you no favours whatsoever.
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Post by mrclondon on Feb 18, 2020 13:16:13 GMT
Frankly, whether in Japan, Europe or anywhere else. I would not like to be the one in government making the call on what to do about nCoV. Agreed, and thus forms a neat link into something that is becoming apparent - differing approaches to testing & reporting. This gov.uk page is updated daily after 2pm seven days a week with the state of testing in the UK (and some / all? of the constituent bits of the UK are doing likewise for their subsets of the population). They has been testing more than 1000 people a day the last couple of days. Contrast that with the the equivalent update from the USA which is updated on Mon/Wed/Fri only  So for a population roughly 5 to 6 times that of the UK they have only done in total (if I'm reading this correctly) 467 tests, a tenth of the volume done in the UK and less than half done each day recently. Whilst there may well be cases in the UK as yet undetected, the level of testing being done does give a degree of confidence that there is no mass spreading at present. But in the USA, I'm not so sure. They have announced they will be testing for covid-19 in 5 specific cities where flu tests come back negative, but one comment I read is you have to pay up front for the test. On the otherhand the UK now has a 3rd quarantine location (Heathrow), whilst in the states 15 military bases have established quarantine locations, with further under consideration. But the USA has banned non citizens from entry if they have been in China, whilst we still have direct flights into LHR and indirect flights into UK airports via other hubs.
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Post by mrclondon on Feb 18, 2020 13:35:59 GMT
Most of my focus is on the economic rather than health impact of the virus. At this point 2 weeks of output has been lost from the Chinese economy, and the indications are another 2 weeks at least will be lost to a greater or lesser extent. International shipping and air freight remains badly affected, and within China the internal market has collapsed with provinces largely isolated from one another. Agrifood supply chain issues could rapidly precipitate a humanitarian crisis. Hubei has ceased all commercial activity apart from agrifood and those companies with staff residing on site and adequate raw materials remaining.
Apart from a few bullish statements attributted to the CCP, I've not read anything that suggests China will be back to anything like normal operations from the beginning of March. I expect many more announcements like that yesterday from Apple warning of signifcant impact on earnings.
Capital Economics (global analysts, HQ in London) are updating daily a series of charts that illustrate some of the data sets that can be used to infer the impact on China's economy. (Click on the charts to blow them up)
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Post by michaelc on Feb 18, 2020 15:34:48 GMT
Leaving aside China, there are now more cases (454) stemming from that cruise ship Diamond Princess than the entire rest of the world put together (443). Staggering really! Hopefully some lessons learned for the virologists/epidemiologists or whoever studies these things. Spread by the aircon would be my guess, based on zero knowledge and pure gut feeling. Yes, I can't help thinking that this is not more tests coming out +ve just because of elongated incubation period, but rather that it is actively spreading. If I was on that ship I'd be far from happy. I can understand its a convenient quarantine environment, but perhaps one that is not truly allowing individual isolation, just isolation from the rest of the planet. You can't help but think it would be right for countries to take responsibility for their own citizens and bring them back and put them in isolation, where the numbers and facilities allow. Made me wonder about this too. Surely though a ship isn't much difference to a block of student housing or any other land based block from a contagion point of view (assuming confined to cabin)? Unless AC really is the issue? Must be really grim - especially in an inside cabin. My newspaper at the weekend still advertised on the front page a "48 page pull out cruise special inside!". I wonder what this will do to thats industry and conversely could this be a good time to pick up a cheap Princess cruise ? Take a couple of gas masks to lunch and you'd have a great time.
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