Nomad
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Post by Nomad on Feb 18, 2020 16:05:56 GMT
My newspaper at the weekend still advertised on the front page a "48 page pull out cruise special inside!". I wonder what this will do to that industry and conversely could this be a good time to pick up a cheap Princess cruise ? Take a couple of gas masks to lunch and you'd have a great time. I'm booked on the Diamond Princess July 4 - 18... Current advice is that normal operation will resume April 29 but I'll believe that when it happens.
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 18, 2020 22:06:44 GMT
My newspaper at the weekend still advertised on the front page a "48 page pull out cruise special inside!". I wonder what this will do to that industry and conversely could this be a good time to pick up a cheap Princess cruise ? Take a couple of gas masks to lunch and you'd have a great time. I'm booked on the Diamond Princess July 4 - 18... Current advice is that normal operation will resume April 29 but I'll believe that when it happens. Are you really sure you want “normal operation” ? “Room Service” has recently taken on a whole new meaning.......
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Post by martin44 on Feb 18, 2020 22:36:13 GMT
In my experience "normal operation" on any cruise ship I've been on, normally means influenza or the squirts ... and its a hell of a lot worse than corona.  |
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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 19, 2020 3:42:01 GMT
Crazy stat of the day...
The proportion of China who've been infected is ~0.005% - one person in 20,000.
The proportion of the cruise ship who've been infected is ~14% - one person in 7.
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Post by wiseclerk on Feb 19, 2020 11:37:24 GMT
Singapore (as of yesterday)
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Feb 19, 2020 11:46:49 GMT
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Feb 19, 2020 11:59:38 GMT
In my experience "normal operation" on any cruise ship I've been on, normally means influenza or the squirts ... and its a hell of a lot worse than corona. Does it kill you?
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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 19, 2020 12:14:20 GMT
BBC reports (from data released by China) how Coronavirus mortality rate increases sharply with age (no real surprise there unfortunately.), running at close to 15% for those aged 80+.
Meanwhile, this shows mortality rate calculated from closed cases (i.e. where patient has died/recovered) now down to 13%. As you say, no surprise. Mortality rate can't be far from 15% for the 80+ group even in the absence of Covid-19. Life expectancy, China male, 75. Female 79. In normal times. If Covid didn't get them, something else would have. Sad but true.
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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 19, 2020 12:16:43 GMT
That's true at all times of course. China life expectancy over both sexes being 77.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Feb 19, 2020 14:06:39 GMT
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Post by martin44 on Feb 19, 2020 14:40:47 GMT
In my experience "normal operation" on any cruise ship I've been on, normally means influenza or the squirts ... and its a hell of a lot worse than corona. Does it kill you? Flu kills many many thousands every year unfortunately.
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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 19, 2020 15:51:42 GMT
Flu kills many many thousands every year unfortunately. Indeed. The entire Covid-19 death toll over the past two months is 2,012 souls. That same number would have died of normal seasonal flu globally in the past two days.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Feb 19, 2020 16:57:39 GMT
Flu kills many many thousands every year unfortunately. Thought you were referring to the squirts.
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Post by mrclondon on Feb 20, 2020 2:08:39 GMT
A few worrying signs tonight
- South Korea confirmed cases has jumped from 31 to 82 in 24 hours, with rumours more big jumps are possible in the next day or two (a superspreader is being investigated)
- Iran announced their first 2 cases earlier today, and later that both had died. Both Iranian with no travel history. Tonight online rumours are that Iran is in a big big mess.
- Japan is increasingly warning its people to avoid crowds etc and is sounding very concerned. Intuitively it must be struggling with the cruise passengers as well as in increasing number of its own dervived cases (now upto 84).
In the meantime markets continue to rise partly on the back of now firmly reduced/reducing daily numbers from China (despite the fact they are fake news) and a belief that central banks will pump unlimited funds into the system to prevent a crash. Hmm ... I have my doubts here, there is only so much papering over a crack you can do.
One piece of advice I have been given by one contact I have in manufacturing is if you have anything that is looking like it needs replacing in the short/medium term then pull your finger out and buy the replacement now. And that really does mean anything even if no obvious content from SE Asia. Retail stock levels could become tight for many goods in the months ahead, and putting cash into the supply chain sooner rather than later can only be beneficial for the companies involved. (To be clear - that is not advocating "panic buying", but replacing medium/high value goods that may be harder to obtain if this drags on for any length of time particularly if you are a fan of a particular brand vs some generic name).
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Post by wiseclerk on Feb 20, 2020 12:24:30 GMT
In the meantime markets continue to rise partly on the back of now firmly reduced/reducing daily numbers from China (despite the fact they are fake news) and a belief that central banks will pump unlimited funds into the system to prevent a crash. Hmm ... I have my doubts here, there is only so much papering over a crack you can do.
Yes, markets on the rise for past weeks. I think that is highly illogical, despite quantitative easing.
Unless of course more and more people are confined in quarantine and cannot continue to consume and spend surplus cash buying stocks instead (small joke despite grave topic )
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