pip
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Post by pip on Jan 28, 2020 12:59:48 GMT
It's going to get worse.
I know this because it hasn't been on front cover of The Economist yet. The Economist is one of the best contrarian signals in existance. Once it's on the front cover and they are bleating what a crisis it's going to be, you can be sure the problem has peaked ... I doubt the Economist will cover it. A pandemic spreading doesn't fit comfortably with their globalist, no border, no national identities, citizen of the world agenda.
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Post by samford71 on Jan 28, 2020 13:05:38 GMT
It's going to get worse.
I know this because it hasn't been on front cover of The Economist yet. The Economist is one of the best contrarian signals in existance. Once it's on the front cover and they are bleating what a crisis it's going to be, you can be sure the problem has peaked ... I doubt the Economist will cover it. A pandemic spreading doesn't fit comfortably with their globalist, no border, no national identities, citizen of the world agenda. Of ye of little faith. This one pretty much was "peak fear" for SARS.
In all likelihood the issue is being overblown. The expert research I'm getting argues that there are probably already hundreds of thousands of people who are carrying the virus. Most don't even know it. It's mortality rate is probably lower than it seems. Most of the deaths recorded so far have co-mortality issues. The reality is prior coronaviruses such as SARS didn't really kill any material number of people. Relative to the number that die each year from a known version of flu, this is still a rounding error. The problem is that there are unknowns (both known and unknown). It can mutate further and turn into a pandemic. Tail risk exists.
The other problem is that the hysteria and lockdowns are very disruptive to the most important economy in the world: China. The engine of what is left of global growth. When SARS hit in 2003, China was a much smaller economy. So this is going to cause much bigger issues with supply chains, reduce productivity etc. That will ripple around the world.
It used to be "When America Sneezes, the World Catches Cold", now it's "When China Sneezes, the World Catches Cold", possibly both literally and economically.
Edit: Zhong Nanshan (he lead research into SARS treatment in 2003) is saying he thinks that this will peak in around 10 days. That is from a state backed Chinese news agency so it you need to assign a probability that it's just propaganda. Albeit most state backed Chinese news agencies have less propaganda and fake news than the average Murdoch paper, the Daily Express or Daily Mail ...
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pip
Posts: 542
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Post by pip on Jan 28, 2020 13:31:43 GMT
I doubt the Economist will cover it. A pandemic spreading doesn't fit comfortably with their globalist, no border, no national identities, citizen of the world agenda. Of ye of little faith. This one pretty much was "peak fear" for SARS.
In all likelihood the issue is being overblown. The expert research I'm getting argues that there are probably already hundreds of thousands of people who are carrying the virus. Most don't even know it. It's mortality rate is probably lower than it seems. Most of the deaths recorded so far have co-mortality issues. The reality is prior coronaviruses such as SARS didn't really kill any material number of people. Relative to the number that die each year from a known version of flu, this is still a rounding error. The problem is that there are unknowns (both known and unknown). It can mutate further and turn into a pandemic. Tail risk exists.
The other problem is that the hysteria and lockdowns are very disruptive to the most important economy in the world: China. The engine of what is left of global growth. When SARS hit in 2003, China was a much smaller economy. So this is going to cause much bigger issues with supply chains, reduce productivity etc. That will ripple around the world.
It used to be "When America Sneezes, the World Catches Cold", now it's "When China Sneezes, the World Catches Cold", possibly both literally and economically.
Fair enough, although think the economist has upped their internationalist agenda since 2003 but who knows. I suspect this virus is also overblown and in all likelihood will have less impact than another seasonal flu strain. Still think a global pandemic is an ever-present risk, although suspect this one wont be the next black death. In my opinion the US stock market is now so overvalued, especially in some sectors, that even a bad news story could easily wipe 20% off the market as we are in total castle's in the sky territory, with next to no fundamentals to back up the prices. Therefore I could well see Coronavirus to be not that big a deal but still it be a part catalyst for the wider market correction.
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jj
Member of DD Central
Jolly Jammy
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Post by jj on Jan 28, 2020 18:28:32 GMT
Who would have thought. Black swans causing a black swan event.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Jan 28, 2020 18:32:45 GMT
First a bit of background on me - I'm a glass half-full type of person, generally pretty un-fazed by events, and comfortable making my own determination of the likelihood of getting myself into a bad position having considered whatever info I can get my hands on. (i.e. I'm not "easly led") And yet, the events unfolding in China are scaring me badly. There is of course a ridiculous amount of speculation / fake news / hype on-line. But filter that out, and hone in on what data there is and the picture that is emerging is at the very least concerning. Confirmed cases & subsequent deaths are both on an exponential upward trajectory, whilst those cured are on a much lower linear trajectory. Wuhan, the centre of the outbreak is already struggling to cope, and yet several other cities (incl Shanghai with a sizable Brit expat population, and Beijing) now have similar numbers of confirmed cases as Wuhan had just a few days ago. ( BNO News - referenced by several internation MSM groups, see About footer) There seems to be potential for this to explode big time inside China over the next week or so.
Science is as yet unable to provide an answer as to whether its contagious before symptoms appear (this class of viruses generally aren't, but the exponential growth is hard to understand without it).
The symptoms seem to be as you'd expect "bad flu" leading to pneumonia.
This post is certainly not intended to panic anyone that similar is about to strike the streets of the UK (or indeed any country outside of SE Asia) but from an investment perspective I don't think the falls on world markets on Monday can be dismissed as hype or overreaction. I think anyone seeing these falls as a buying opportunity needs to look a bit deeper. At the very least this is going to hit the Chinese economy hard, and given a huge amount of what we consume in the UK (non-food) originates from China supply chains are going to get stretched in the medium term.
SARS the nearest equivalent died out after c. 9 months in 2003-4 and nobody knows why, though ambient temperature may have played a part - it started in the winter and disappeared in the summer.
Am I the only one thinking along these lines ?
My advice is switch off the news. It’s all bad. Just another event that everybody will have forgotten about by summer, unless they’re dead from coronavirus
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michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
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Post by michaelc on Jan 28, 2020 20:22:21 GMT
Didn't initially want to post this as it feels to me slightly morally dubious to be discussing ones finances in the context of human tragedy but what the heck. I can't SFDASDFSADFASDFing believe I put a few [thousand] quid into a fund that specialises in China just a couple of days before this hit the news !
My advice to everyone is not to invest in anything I ever invest in.
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travolta
Member of DD Central
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Post by travolta on Jan 28, 2020 20:49:20 GMT
I've had an awfully bad cough thismonth . Has anyone else had one? Also my UK Vanguard fund has dropped . I'm sure its related.
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keitha
Member of DD Central
2024, hopefully the year I get out of P2P
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Post by keitha on Jan 28, 2020 20:55:39 GMT
I was holding my Avast ( antivirus amongst Others ) in the hope of hitting 100% profit ( was up nearly 90%), Flipping Peel Hunt Say it's over valued and now i'm only up 62%, heck of a fall in 2 days.
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Post by bernythedolt on Jan 29, 2020 2:08:47 GMT
First a bit of background on me - I'm a glass half-full type of person, generally pretty un-fazed by events, and comfortable making my own determination of the likelihood of getting myself into a bad position having considered whatever info I can get my hands on. (i.e. I'm not "easly led") And yet, the events unfolding in China are scaring me badly. There is of course a ridiculous amount of speculation / fake news / hype on-line. But filter that out, and hone in on what data there is and the picture that is emerging is at the very least concerning. Confirmed cases & subsequent deaths are both on an exponential upward trajectory, whilst those cured are on a much lower linear trajectory. Wuhan, the centre of the outbreak is already struggling to cope, and yet several other cities (incl Shanghai with a sizable Brit expat population, and Beijing) now have similar numbers of confirmed cases as Wuhan had just a few days ago. ( BNO News - referenced by several internation MSM groups, see About footer) There seems to be potential for this to explode big time inside China over the next week or so. Science is as yet unable to provide an answer as to whether its contagious before symptoms appear (this class of viruses generally aren't, but the exponential growth is hard to understand without it).
The symptoms seem to be as you'd expect "bad flu" leading to pneumonia.
This post is certainly not intended to panic anyone that similar is about to strike the streets of the UK (or indeed any country outside of SE Asia) but from an investment perspective I don't think the falls on world markets on Monday can be dismissed as hype or overreaction. I think anyone seeing these falls as a buying opportunity needs to look a bit deeper. At the very least this is going to hit the Chinese economy hard, and given a huge amount of what we consume in the UK (non-food) originates from China supply chains are going to get stretched in the medium term.
SARS the nearest equivalent died out after c. 9 months in 2003-4 and nobody knows why, though ambient temperature may have played a part - it started in the winter and disappeared in the summer. Am I the only one thinking along these lines ?
My advice is switch off the news. It’s all bad. Just another event that everybody will have forgotten about by summer, unless they’re dead from coronavirus Agreed, regular occurrence. During my lifetime they’ve scared us with potentially deadly pandemics, one after another: Asian flu, Hong Kong flu, Avian/bird/swine flu, SARS, AIDS/HIV, Zika, Ebola, and Norovirus come to mind and all have claimed lives to a greater or lesser degree. Not sure anything’s different about this latest outbreak. 100 years ago, Spanish Flu killed 1/6th of all mankind (including my grandmother’s fiancé). Now THAT’s what you call a frightening pandemic. 1/6th of the globe!! Come back when coronavirus has killed its first million and I might sit up and take notice... That's not to be heartless to those affected, simply realistic.
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benaj
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N/A
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Post by benaj on Jan 29, 2020 7:16:43 GMT
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Jan 29, 2020 8:34:54 GMT
My advice is switch off the news. It’s all bad. Just another event that everybody will have forgotten about by summer, unless they’re dead from coronavirus Agreed, regular occurrence. During my lifetime they’ve scared us with potentially deadly pandemics, one after another: Asian flu, Hong Kong flu, Avian/bird/swine flu, SARS, AIDS/HIV, Zika, Ebola, and Norovirus come to mind and all have claimed lives to a greater or lesser degree. Not sure anything’s different about this latest outbreak. 100 years ago, Spanish Flu killed 1/6th of all mankind (including my grandmother’s fiancé). Now THAT’s what you call a frightening pandemic. 1/6th of the globe!! Come back when coronavirus has killed its first million and I might sit up and take notice... That's not to be heartless to those affected, simply realistic. That's probably why we now take the potential of dangerous pandemics seriously. You don't know positively which one will be 'the one' until it's out of control, whether we could stop or contain 'the one' is another matter.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Jan 29, 2020 10:25:24 GMT
bernythedolt What's your source for "100 years ago, Spanish Flu killed 1/6th of all mankind"?
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Jan 29, 2020 10:30:55 GMT
bernythedolt What's your source for "100 years ago, Spanish Flu killed 1/6th of all mankind"? Quite. From wikipedia: "The death toll is estimated to have been 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million (three to five percent of Earth's population at the time)" I suppose if you exclude women and children, 1 in 20 might become closer to 1 in 6 of (literal) mankind!
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Jan 29, 2020 10:48:41 GMT
Back with the Coronavirus, BBC reports "The UK government plans to fly 200 British citizens out from Wuhan, the centre of the new coronavirus outbreak, on Thursday. Health Secretary Matt Hancock has instructed officials to put them in quarantine for two weeks - possibly at a military base. Sources told the BBC they will be given the best possible medical care and advice." |
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Jan 29, 2020 11:02:08 GMT
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