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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 20, 2020 13:11:28 GMT
Is it highly illogical though?
Over the years, isn't it the case that the markets have comfortably ridden out the potential pandemic shocks of HIV/AIDS, Ebola, Zika, etc, etc and more strains of flu than you can shake a stick at?
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 20, 2020 13:14:05 GMT
Is it highly illogical though? Over the years, isn't it the case that the markets have comfortably ridden out the potential pandemic shocks of HIV/AIDS, Ebola, Zika, etc, etc and more strains of flu than you can shake a stick at? Yup. But at some point they'll be a first time they get it really, really wrong. Is that point now? No idea.....
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Post by mrclondon on Feb 20, 2020 13:52:06 GMT
Is it highly illogical though? Over the years, isn't it the case that the markets have comfortably ridden out the potential pandemic shocks of HIV/AIDS, Ebola, Zika, etc, etc and more strains of flu than you can shake a stick at? Whilst true, that overlooks the most likely initial cause of a financial crash - bank insolvency. Few previous potential pandemics had the potential to disrupt world trade and G7 economic growth to any significant extent, and more importantly were not centered on what in the case of China today is the world's 2nd biggest economy (and note Japan is 3rd with South Korea 11th - reference).
Last week I linked to a twitter feed from an economics professor concerning the risk to Eurozone banks and the danger they could be the first domino to fall. That link was simply the easiest to understand presentation on the subject that I've read, there are plenty of others. The ability of Chinese (and probably in due course other countries) companies to service their debt is a real issue, that will reverberate through the worlds banks over the coming months. The concept that the virus has peaked is a dangerous false narrative in my opinion.
My fear is that as in the months before the 2008-9 crash, the markets have dis-associated from the underlying asset values. It has become a (gambling) game, and one view is that the further the markets are driven up now, the more money that can be made shorting them on the way down. As always it is the small retail investors who will be impacted the hardest by any crash.
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Post by bernythedolt on Feb 21, 2020 3:19:42 GMT
New graph being displayed today for the first time, which sensibly discounts those who have died or recovered. Instead it tracks just the currently infected, active cases. To my mind, it gives a clearer picture of whether the battle is being won. www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#active-cases (May need to click on Active Cases). IF you believe the figures, it's very encouraging. Earlier up this thread, my number crunching predicted 21st Feb as a date to watch, so it's a good time to take stock. […] Modelling the data allows a prediction to be made. The parabola best fitting the trend of the last eight days indicates the number of known, reported infections (currently ~45,150) should peak at 55,791 on 21st Feb. It must be said that extrapolating 9 days into the future like this is notoriously dicey, because so much can change, but it's a vastly more positive outlook than a week ago. Let's hope this trend continues. The Chinese then threw in a massive extra 15,000 cases overnight, which screwed the calculations to a degree. Nevertheless, the virus does appear to be topping out, at face value at least. Fingers crossed it stays that way. |
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 21, 2020 10:04:02 GMT
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Post by southseacompany on Feb 21, 2020 12:41:06 GMT
Thought process: "I'm afraid these people might be carrying a contagious, airborne virus. Better hurl some stones to break the windows separating them from us!" These protesters aren't the smartest bunch, are they?
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Feb 21, 2020 13:39:30 GMT
BBC reporting "South Korea has stepped up measures to contain the spread of the deadly new coronavirus, as confirmed infections increased sharply for a second day. PM Chung Sye-kyun said it was now an emergency as 100 new cases and the country's second death were confirmed ... About 9,000 members of a religious group were told to self quarantine"
That's going to be a massive problem if there are 9000 possible cases.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Feb 21, 2020 14:01:39 GMT
www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6U0H8uCD6wWith congregation like this, I am not so sure how fast it has already spread. Members of this cult would feel the pressure not turning up if they were sick before the news.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Feb 21, 2020 16:03:35 GMT
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Post by bracknellboy on Feb 21, 2020 18:37:41 GMT
South korea, Iran, Lebanon,
"We are concerned about the number of cases with no clear epidemiological link, such as travel history to or contact with a confirmed case," he said.
The new deaths and infections in Iran were "very concerning", he said.
I said not long ago that I thought we might have reached the point where it wasn't containable (or I meant to anyway). I was more bouyed in the last few days with the possible turn down in China. But there is a real risk it has effectively shed its chains and setup new pockets (e.g. Iran).
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 21, 2020 20:01:47 GMT
Yeah, the greatest risk was (is) always if it gets into a population in a country with little infrastructure and a poor public health system. Examples that spring to mind are Bangladesh, Pakistan, some countries in Africa, Venezuela, any war torn country / area like Syria or Libya....
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Feb 21, 2020 21:59:55 GMT
hmm, well, China buys a lot of oil from Iran, and the "Belt and Road Initiative" runs, to misquote Shwartzkof, around, through, over and under central Asia....
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Post by mrclondon on Feb 22, 2020 1:39:49 GMT
The cases in Iran are puzzling. How does the virus get to Tehran, Qom and Rasht from China? There can’t be a lot of people moving between the two countries.
Then spreading inside Iran over the last month.
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Post by mrclondon on Feb 22, 2020 2:14:44 GMT
Rather closer to home Italy .... 2 cases in Rome some weeks ago from Chinese visitors, but increased over the last 24 hours to 21 cases (6 serious) with 1 death mostly ( all ?) in the north of Italy. Several medium sized towns "invited to stay at home" (EDIT - rumours it could be upto 10 towns, last a week and be pretty draconian ... a story to watch ....)
48 hours ago I noted South Korea had jumped from 31 to 82, now 346 with 2 deaths.
USA is still struggling to get adequate testing capability in place, but the tone of the messaging from CDC (the equivalent of our PHE) is increasingly downbeat, with hints of school and business closures if an outbreak occurs (e.g. as reported by Reuters
China - from what I've read I get the impression that prisoners are one of the many categories of cases that are excluded from the reported figures. Police/military are believed to be excluded as well, along with all asymptomatic positive tests. Rumours of another 30,000 temporary beds in Hubei being created ... simply doesn't square with the much reduced number of new cases being reported. The emphasis seems to be on getting people back to work now (outside Hubei) irrespective of contagion risks. Meanwhile international airlines are cancelling flights ever further into the future, some now to 30th June (which has a knock on in terms of air freight capacity).
Japan - my guess is they have now lost control (too many bad judgements) and in a couple of weeks time we'll see the numbers rocket up. Lots of bad feeling being reported towards the UK re the Tory London mayoral candidate's comments on London could host the Olympics later this year. Bad politics IMO, partly because pre-trade deals we don't want to antagonise any country, partly because we may not want to take the health risks involved, and partly because I suspect we are the only country that could pull it off and hence would be asked anyway (I guess it would likely be distributed across the UK and poss. France/Benelux not just London).
Whilst I'm not surprised at how this is evolving, I am shocked at the speed with which it is all happening. I simply can't see how this is containable from this point. Grim times ahead. (I think the concept of spring/summer coming to the rescue is wishful thinking - we are 8-10 weeks off any noticable heat here, a month ago there were almost no cases outside of Hubei).
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Post by southseacompany on Feb 22, 2020 12:06:27 GMT
One more piece of anecdotal evidence. There's been a case of Covid-19 in my yard. (For perspective: The "yard" is a gated community with almost 100 apartment buildings, so it is more populous than many English villages. Most urban people in China live in complexes like this.) Initially, the management company of the complex informed all residents that several people in the same family had tested positive. Later, one of the guards at the gate told us that in fact everyone in the family of 7 had been confirmed positive. That building is under lockdown, but residents of other buildings remain free to come and go, subject to temperature checks of course.
Curiously, the government's published statistics only mention one case in this complex. When asked about it, the guard admitted that the official figures only count one case per family, no matter how many people are actually infected.
Note that this may only be a local practice. I have no way of knowing if this kind of falsification is widespread.
In recent weeks, I've sold all of my equity investments. I also have a couple of small short positions (in Intel and Hilton Hotels) and might add more, depending on how things develop. I might be overreacting, but well, we'll see soon.
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