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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Sept 20, 2020 19:31:06 GMT
I think someone in this thread was asking about why some immigrants seemed to be more susceptible to serious illness when hey get covid. This article titled "‘John Henryism’: The hidden health impact of race inequality" seem relevant
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Post by dan1 on Sept 20, 2020 20:31:07 GMT
The penny has just dropped regarding these £10k fines. They've been introduced to reduce the demand on testing. Adherence to the rules are secondary (and probably counter productive). You could view them as a measure to protect Typhoid Dido and Door Matt* rather than public health.
It's easy to forget from our (largely on this forum) privileged position but put yourself in the shoes of someone living hand to mouth relying on zero hours contracts to pay your rent & bills. Will you now be more or less likely to get a test if you wake up with cough/fever/loss of taste/smell? Will you now answer your phone to an unknown/recognised number? How much faith do you have that you'll actually get the £500 in a timely manner?
*thank you John Crace
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Sept 21, 2020 9:39:37 GMT
Heads up, according to latest study by the COVID Symptom app Daily new cases of COVID
Total numbers of new daily cases across the UK: 10,391 People are currently predicted to have symptomatic COVID in the UK: 96,531 covid.joinzoe.com/data
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Sept 21, 2020 11:20:43 GMT
So... given the social distancing, mask wearing, and hand washing etc that the sensible among us are conducting, is the recent resurgence generally confined to those who aren't being sensible?
If not.... do those measures actually help materially? Do we have any data to support an answer one way or the other?
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Post by dan1 on Sept 21, 2020 11:34:28 GMT
I didn't watch the CSO & CMO but saw the chart below on my feed. What strikes me is not the increase but the reference date, that of 15 September. Why not choose yesterday? Because it takes 6 days to get the bulk of tests processed, that's way too slow at this stage in the pandemic, it's not ok. Heads up, according to latest study by the COVID Symptom app Daily new cases of COVIDTotal numbers of new daily cases across the UK: 10,391 People are currently predicted to have symptomatic COVID in the UK: 96,531 covid.joinzoe.com/data benaj - four doublings equates to 166k cases, i.e. there will be, on average, 3.4 times the number of cases (and deaths).
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Mike
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Post by Mike on Sept 21, 2020 11:53:39 GMT
So... given the social distancing, mask wearing, and hand washing etc that the sensible among us are conducting, is the recent resurgence generally confined to those who aren't being sensible? If not.... do those measures actually help materially? Do we have any data to support an answer one way or the other? One suspects that, after all the other factors are considered (original state of play before global intervention, climate, population density, necessary movement of people & goods, inevitable non-optimal use of e.g masks) then everything the government has asked us to do (local rather than global) impacts within a rounding error of accuracy at best. With the probable exception of hand washing, which sadly seems to have been replaced with face coverings (and wearing the same dirty face covering for weeks on end). Looking at Europe, you can see quite a wide variety of lockdown severity. It's certainly not clear to me that, at the end of the day, more or less severe restrictions really made much difference compared with the initial conditions and other constants (known and unknown) that vary between places but can't be altered by political intervention. For most examples there is a counter-example.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Sept 21, 2020 12:09:07 GMT
So... given the social distancing, mask wearing, and hand washing etc that the sensible among us are conducting, is the recent resurgence generally confined to those who aren't being sensible? If not.... do those measures actually help materially? Do we have any data to support an answer one way or the other? Or may be the surge was caused by spreading events like drinking in pubs & racecourses where masks weren’t worn. No one have suggested they were linked to hotels, house parties and weddings yet.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Sept 21, 2020 12:15:18 GMT
Agreed, but my point is that if they have the data they should use it to explain what has happened and why, and if they don't have the data they bloody well should have!
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Sept 21, 2020 12:34:19 GMT
So... given the social distancing, mask wearing, and hand washing etc that the sensible among us are conducting, is the recent resurgence generally confined to those who aren't being sensible? If not.... do those measures actually help materially? Do we have any data to support an answer one way or the other? One suspects that, after all the other factors are considered (original state of play before global intervention, climate, population density, necessary movement of people & goods, inevitable non-optimal use of e.g masks) then everything the government has asked us to do (local rather than global) impacts within a rounding error of accuracy at best. With the probable exception of hand washing, which sadly seems to have been replaced with face coverings (and wearing the same dirty face covering for weeks on end). Looking at Europe, you can see quite a wide variety of lockdown severity. It's certainly not clear to me that, at the end of the day, more or less severe restrictions really made much difference compared with the initial conditions and other constants (known and unknown) that vary between places but can't be altered by political intervention. For most examples there is a counter-example. Having lived in several European countries over the last few months, I'm not convinced about the net benefits of distancing/masks/hand-washing* Spain has been the most observant country in my experience with these measures. I think you even have to wear a mask in open public outdoor spaces now. Yet it has been doused liberally with cases throughout. Poland was appalling in this regard, it wasn't taken seriously at all. There was even a huge city event in the time I was there (singing, dancing, bands). Yet, they never seem to have more than 1000 cases a day. Likewise, Greece. It does seem very difficult indeed to find the common threads that make a place more or less susceptible. As you say, Xell, for every plausible theory there's a countering example often just next door. Agree there should be more data or more visibility of data to try and understand this. We've all heard anecdotes about lots of cases being caused by 1 party / flight / idiot just as we hear anecdotes about individual cases of long COVID, but that's pretty meaningless in the round. What do the numbers actually reveal as a whole? *however, this all does seem to work with the flu
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Sept 21, 2020 12:59:21 GMT
One suspects that, after all the other factors are considered (original state of play before global intervention, climate, population density, necessary movement of people & goods, inevitable non-optimal use of e.g masks) then everything the government has asked us to do (local rather than global) impacts within a rounding error of accuracy at best. With the probable exception of hand washing, which sadly seems to have been replaced with face coverings (and wearing the same dirty face covering for weeks on end). Looking at Europe, you can see quite a wide variety of lockdown severity. It's certainly not clear to me that, at the end of the day, more or less severe restrictions really made much difference compared with the initial conditions and other constants (known and unknown) that vary between places but can't be altered by political intervention. For most examples there is a counter-example. Having lived in several European countries over the last few months, I'm not convinced about the net benefits of distancing/masks/hand-washing* Spain has been the most observant country in my experience with these measures. I think you even have to wear a mask in open public outdoor spaces now. Yet it has been doused liberally with cases throughout. Poland was appalling in this regard, it wasn't taken seriously at all. There was even a huge city event in the time I was there (singing, dancing, bands). Yet, they never seem to have more than 1000 cases a day. Likewise, Greece. It does seem very difficult indeed to find the common threads that make a place more or less susceptible. As you say, Xell, for every plausible theory there's a countering example often just next door. Agree there should be more data or more visibility of data to try and understand this. We've all heard anecdotes about lots of cases being caused by 1 party / flight / idiot just as we hear anecdotes about individual cases of long COVID, but that's pretty meaningless in the round. What do the numbers actually reveal as a whole? *however, this all does seem to work with the flu That on a population level you can't beat the virus, just slow the spread down to a greater or lesser degree whilst trying and protect the vulnerable, and that there is an element of randomness and luck involved? Oh, and that mostly people cherry pick data to support their prior beliefs and preferred solutions?
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Sept 21, 2020 13:02:26 GMT
So... given the social distancing, mask wearing, and hand washing etc that the sensible among us are conducting, is the recent resurgence generally confined to those who aren't being sensible? If not.... do those measures actually help materially? Do we have any data to support an answer one way or the other? One suspects that, after all the other factors are considered (original state of play before global intervention, climate, population density, necessary movement of people & goods, inevitable non-optimal use of e.g masks) then everything the government has asked us to do (local rather than global) impacts within a rounding error of accuracy at best. With the probable exception of hand washing, which sadly seems to have been replaced with face coverings (and wearing the same dirty face covering for weeks on end). Looking at Europe, you can see quite a wide variety of lockdown severity. It's certainly not clear to me that, at the end of the day, more or less severe restrictions really made much difference compared with the initial conditions and other constants (known and unknown) that vary between places but can't be altered by political intervention. For most examples there is a counter-example. This is a vital point - all the screaming for and against the (poorly evidence based) mask wearing has left the (well evidence-based) handwashing behind in public consciousness. People still don't do it often enough, thoroughly enough or long enough.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Sept 21, 2020 13:39:01 GMT
One suspects that, after all the other factors are considered (original state of play before global intervention, climate, population density, necessary movement of people & goods, inevitable non-optimal use of e.g masks) then everything the government has asked us to do (local rather than global) impacts within a rounding error of accuracy at best. With the probable exception of hand washing, which sadly seems to have been replaced with face coverings (and wearing the same dirty face covering for weeks on end). Looking at Europe, you can see quite a wide variety of lockdown severity. It's certainly not clear to me that, at the end of the day, more or less severe restrictions really made much difference compared with the initial conditions and other constants (known and unknown) that vary between places but can't be altered by political intervention. For most examples there is a counter-example. This is a vital point - all the screaming for and against the (poorly evidence based) mask wearing has left the (well evidence-based) handwashing behind in public consciousness. People still don't do it often enough, thoroughly enough or long enough. BBC Experiment with HAnna Fry - Extra hand washing
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Sept 21, 2020 13:54:14 GMT
This is a vital point - all the screaming for and against the (poorly evidence based) mask wearing... And yet Fauci, the CDC and, I think, the WHO all recommend mask usage? Are they doing that without the support of data / evidence? Or is the data / evidence different depending on country / how masks are used? Or being interpreted differently? Or are things just... inconsistent? Not having a go, just curious....
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Sept 21, 2020 14:28:04 GMT
This is a vital point - all the screaming for and against the (poorly evidence based) mask wearing... And yet Fauci, the CDC and, I think, the WHO all recommend mask usage? Are they doing that without the support of data / evidence? Or is the data / evidence different depending on country / how masks are used? Or being interpreted differently? Or are things just... inconsistent? Not having a go, just curious.... There are just not very many good studies on masks and viral transmission. Probably has an effect, probably small in the great scheme of things. I'm not saying don't do it, although one can't rule out it being counterproductive as a compulsory population measure (makes people feel safer than they are so they compensate by taking more risks in other ways eg more and less distanced social contacts). I think it feels good to do something that's under our control and visible. And we know that "something must be done", so this is one of the least difficult to do. But don't do it at the expense of handwashing, isolating when symptomatic and social/physical distancing within reason. For handwashing, much better evidence.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Sept 21, 2020 15:34:35 GMT
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