benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 15, 2020 9:25:55 GMT
My worst fear, even with Tier 3, it wont stop exponentially growth within 5 weeks, let alone the 2 week circuit breaker will have a big impact
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Mike
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Post by Mike on Oct 15, 2020 9:34:56 GMT
My worst fear, even with Tier 3, it wont stop exponentially growth within 5 weeks, let alone the 2 week circuit breaker will have a big impact my 0.5% interest savings account is growing "exponentially" yet this term seems to have a new meaning now that I don't quite get so excited about when it applies to my bank account
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Post by dan1 on Oct 15, 2020 9:48:16 GMT
None of this stuff surrounding restrictions is rocket-science, it really is pretty simple, basic stuff at the end of the day. I do get the feeling that the recent move to tiers is just rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic.
Anyway, all societies with stubborn cases/hospitalisations/deaths would benefit from moving to sustainable restrictions (full on lockdowns are just a sign of complete failure to reach sustainable restrictions). Once you've got Rt around 1 you can dial up the measures to reduce infection rates or, if your aim is to reach herd immunity, then dial them back to increase infection rates. This open everything up, get everyone back to work, school, college, uni then "oh sh*t cases are rising" we better lockdown is just a failure of public health strategy.
We need to understand that we'll need much more stringent restrictions in the UK than somewhere like Sweden because we're more densely populated, have far fewer homes per population, don't have as good a social safety net etc. We will also need tighter restrictions because the messaging is so awful (think Cummings), track/trace/isolate isn't working, testing is overloaded and not timely, enforcement and compliance with social distancing, mask use and the restrictions is poor, and no doubt there are other factors. Essentially, there are no free lunches - there are no easy answers.
Whatever path we take from here it's going to be sh*t for the next 6 months at least.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 15, 2020 9:48:40 GMT
My worst fear, even with Tier 3, it wont stop exponentially growth within 5 weeks, let alone the 2 week circuit breaker will have a big impact my 0.5% interest savings account is growing " exponentially" yet this term seems to have a new meaning now that I don't quite get so excited about when it applies to my bank account
This is a phrase that is frequently bandied about without any real meaning. For example, it doesn't matter whether the R rate is 1.000001 or 10, both result in exponential growth (but the end result will obviously be very different)
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Mike
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Post by Mike on Oct 15, 2020 9:57:09 GMT
The limiting factor is not the rules themselves, it's peoples willingness to comply. No point trying to do another March when it's clear (and I think it is) that people would behave differently and in a much less willing manner.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 15, 2020 10:01:36 GMT
The limiting factor is not the rules themselves, it's peoples willingness to comply. No point trying to do another March when it's clear (and I think it is) that people would behave differently and in a much less willing manner. Spot on.
Sky news interviewed an expert in infectious diseases from Liverpool University earlier in the week. He said that the biggest barrier to containing the virus was the fact that there is a significnt section of society that think the virus won't affect them, so won't follow the rules.
We don't need a lockdown, we need a lock up, of all the people that blatantly disregard the regulations.
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Post by dan1 on Oct 15, 2020 10:02:12 GMT
The limiting factor is not the rules themselves, it's peoples willingness to comply. No point trying to do another March when it's clear (and I think it is) that people would behave differently and in a much less willing manner. Indeed. I'm a tad concerned that it'll get to the point where whatever the govt do they can't control the rise in cases. I'm increasing concerned that this is actually govt strategy - i.e. "look, we've done everything we can but we can no longer control the spread" - i.e. blame it on the people.
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 15, 2020 10:03:22 GMT
my 0.5% interest savings account is growing " exponentially" yet this term seems to have a new meaning now that I don't quite get so excited about when it applies to my bank account
This is a phrase that is frequently bandied about without any real meaning. For example, it doesn't matter whether the R rate is 1.000001 or 10, both result in exponential growth (but the end result will obviously be very different)
It is meaningful in that exponential growth is not an intuitive concept for many people who tend to think of growth as linear: Exponential growth bias: The numerical error behind Covid-19Even though investors should hopefully be more familiar with the effects of compound interest.
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Post by dan1 on Oct 15, 2020 10:05:55 GMT
This is a phrase that is frequently bandied about without any real meaning. For example, it doesn't matter whether the R rate is 1.000001 or 10, both result in exponential growth (but the end result will obviously be very different)
It is meaningful in that exponential growth is not an intuitive concept for many people who tend to think of growth as linear: Exponential growth bias: The numerical error behind Covid-19Even though investors should hopefully be more familiar with the effects of compound interest. As the potatoe* man Albert Bartlett said: *that was a joke. yeah yeah yeah I know it was exceedingly rubbish
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 15, 2020 10:37:52 GMT
The limiting factor is not the rules themselves, it's peoples willingness to comply. No point trying to do another March when it's clear (and I think it is) that people would behave differently and in a much less willing manner. Indeed. I'm a tad concerned that it'll get to the point where whatever the govt do they can't control the rise in cases. I'm increasing concerned that this is actually govt strategy - i.e. "look, we've done everything we can but we can no longer control the spread" - i.e. blame it on the people. So people are the new enemies of the people?
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Post by dan1 on Oct 15, 2020 10:41:10 GMT
Indeed. I'm a tad concerned that it'll get to the point where whatever the govt do they can't control the rise in cases. I'm increasing concerned that this is actually govt strategy - i.e. "look, we've done everything we can but we can no longer control the spread" - i.e. blame it on the people. So people are the new enemies of the people? Trump/Johnson (they only differ in style) - never our fault (we don't make mistakes), blame someone else. At least the immigrants aren't copping it for a change.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Oct 15, 2020 11:04:41 GMT
Not as expensive as it might have been. Payments to be made going forward but no backdating of the 20 odd years dodged so far. One rule for thee, another for me
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Oct 15, 2020 11:05:56 GMT
Not as expensive as it might have been. Payments to be made going forward but no backdating of the 20 odd years dodged so far. It's remarkable how little people seem to care about the cronyism/corruption/breaking of rules going on. It's almost like the "culture war" and Brexit divisions were deliberately sewn in order to allow lot of things to go under the radar in the name of supporting your side. Politics seem (deliberately) broken.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 15, 2020 11:11:54 GMT
So people are the new enemies of the people? Trump/Johnson (they only differ in style) - never our fault (we don't make mistakes), blame someone else. At least the immigrants aren't copping it for a change. But isn't this the exact same attitude expressed by people like Andy Burnham? When you hear him speak you would think the last people to blame for the rise in Manchester was the good people of Manchester.
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Post by dan1 on Oct 15, 2020 11:22:30 GMT
Trump/Johnson (they only differ in style) - never our fault (we don't make mistakes), blame someone else. At least the immigrants aren't copping it for a change. But isn't this the exact same attitude expressed by people like Andy Burnham? When you hear him speak you would think the last people to blame for the rise in Manchester was the good people of Manchester. I understand your point of view because you are a Tory until you die. However, I personally don't care what Andy Burnham says (I'm not listening to him*). I care about the people who have the power to decide restrictions, furlough, etc. i.e. the people who matter are Johnson & Cummings, and to a lesser extent (because they have limited powers) Sturgeon, Drakeford, Arlene Foster/Michelle O'Neill. *listening to Maria Van Kerkhove talk sense on CNN instead.
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