agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 19, 2020 20:37:36 GMT
I hope PHE/Test & Trace are sharing anonymised data to allow researchers to do this kind of analysis. I have some doubts that they actually have the fidelity of data required to perform these analyses because we'd of already seen the findings. Does the new Apple/Google decentralised app prevent collection of this data, I don't know? I'd bet my P2P assets ( ) that the online shoppers have a statistically significant lower rate of infection than those doing in-person grocery shopping. But, that tells us little I suspect. Those daily supermarket shoppers are more likely to go to restaurants, cafes, pubs, jet off on holiday. I guess what I'm trying to say that isolating one variable amongst all the other interactions must be pretty damn hard statistically. Perhaps there should be more stats taught at school given the recent battlegrounds - climate change, brexit economics, Covid-19? I was taught stats at school many years ago and remember the teacher saying there are lies, dam lies and statistics (which I guess is about correct).
Regarding the shoppers, I guess it is inevitable that doing something from home (work, shopping, education et al) are always going to be lower risk than going into an environment that requires mixing with others. I bet people who play FIFA 20 on the Xbox have a lower infection rate than those that kick a ball around on the park on a Sundy morning.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Oct 19, 2020 21:00:32 GMT
I bet people who play FIFA 20 on the Xbox have a lower infection rate than those that kick a ball around on the park on a Sundy morning. Higher risk of coronary heart disease (etc) though.
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one21
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Post by one21 on Oct 20, 2020 8:18:16 GMT
One group of people who should be regularly tested imho are supermarket staff, who handle each individual product. One infected person could potentially infect thousands. Since the requirement has been in force for shoppers I have noticed most do not even wear face masks!
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Post by dan1 on Oct 20, 2020 8:44:55 GMT
YouGov poll: Would you support or oppose a two-week nation-wide "circuit breaker" lockdown at the start of the school half term later this month? And the follow up questions: a) Would you support lifting the circuit breaker when deaths are still rising after 2 weeks? b) Are you sure? c) Actually, come to think of it, it doesn't matter what you think really because it will be politically impossible to lift it after 2 weeks, so lets be honest and call it a second lockdown shall we? Not sure why local implementation of one's chosen NPIs is a problem myself. It feels a bit like because things are worse in some areas of the country we all have to suffer so that they don't feel they are being singled out. Interesting post in the context of the Welsh 17 day fire-break. Will they come out as planned?
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 20, 2020 9:03:57 GMT
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 20, 2020 9:11:45 GMT
And the follow up questions: a) Would you support lifting the circuit breaker when deaths are still rising after 2 weeks? b) Are you sure? c) Actually, come to think of it, it doesn't matter what you think really because it will be politically impossible to lift it after 2 weeks, so lets be honest and call it a second lockdown shall we? Not sure why local implementation of one's chosen NPIs is a problem myself. It feels a bit like because things are worse in some areas of the country we all have to suffer so that they don't feel they are being singled out. Interesting post in the context of the Welsh 17 day fire-break. Will they come out as planned? Speaking as somebody who lives in a lower risk area I'm obviously not keen in a national lock down, and I will be suprised if 2 weeks has a great effect on the headline rate. Most other countries appear to be going for local lockdowns and you would have thought that this was the way to go initially.
Worst case scenario appears to be the Irish republic which is having a total lock down for 6 weeks to get the virus under control, and then allowing everyone to go mad at Christmas and start spreading it again.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Oct 20, 2020 9:24:06 GMT
There seem to be various vaccines now in full scale production (and in use in China and possibly elsewhere) although not fully proven, why not let people (who are willing to take the hopefully small risk) have the vaccine. If a lot of young healthy people elected to have the vaccine it could have a rapid, significant effect on the spread (assuming of course that it works!).
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 20, 2020 9:24:19 GMT
And the follow up questions: a) Would you support lifting the circuit breaker when deaths are still rising after 2 weeks? Interesting post in the context of the Welsh 17 day fire-break. Will they come out as planned? The relevant metric is, surely, not deaths - which lag weeks or months behind infections... but infections themselves. Unfortunately, we have absolutely no idea in this country what infections are really doing. The best we can come up with is positive tests... An anecdote: Friends of ours run a B&B. Their daughter lives with them, and works in a residential care environment. A few weeks ago, a colleague of hers had symptoms, got a test on the Weds, felt better by Friday so went into work then to the pub with colleagues afterwards. On the Saturday, the test result came in. You can guess which it was. How easy do you think it was for our friends and their daughter to get a test? The daughter - dead easy. She was tested on the very next day, the Sunday, because she works in a care environment. You can guess what the result was. She remained asymptomatic. So that leaves our friends... They could not get a test at all. Because they were asymptomatic. Even though they were living with somebody who had tested positive... And, of course, estimates are about 80% of infections are asymptomatic - but still infectious... Fortunately, they have their heads screwed on right. They put the shutters up, and cancelled their bookings for three weeks. They spent the thick end of a grand on getting the B&B professionally deep-cleaned before re-opening. Another anecdote: Another neighbour lives a lot of the time in France - and has just got back from there. She lives in a tiny, very rural village - no cases for miles around. She sat in her car for hours to get to the tunnel... and has to go into quarantine for a fortnight when she gets back. She's going to visit her daughter, a social worker in London who travels by tube to visit the poor and vulnerable in their homes. No need for quarantine on her return. The daughter was going to be out with friends one evening recently. The friend organising it phoned up that day, saying how they'd just been in fairly extensive contact with somebody who was displaying all the symptoms, etc etc... and if she didn't feel like joining them, that was her choice, but they were still going out... Idiocy like that is why we need a sharp lockdown. But, of course, because the testing is so utterly broken, we can't actually measure how effective it is.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 20, 2020 9:25:05 GMT
There seem to be various vaccines now in full scale production (and in use in China and possibly elsewhere) although not fully proven, why not let people (who are willing to take the hopefully small risk) have the vaccine. If a lot of young healthy people elected to have the vaccine it could have a rapid, significant effect on the spread (assuming of course that it works!). The issue isn't so much efficacy - that's established by this stage. It's side-effects...
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 20, 2020 9:33:42 GMT
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Post by dan1 on Oct 20, 2020 9:44:45 GMT
There seem to be various vaccines now in full scale production (and in use in China and possibly elsewhere) although not fully proven, why not let people (who are willing to take the hopefully small risk) have the vaccine. If a lot of young healthy people elected to have the vaccine it could have a rapid, significant effect on the spread (assuming of course that it works!). Imagine the situation if FDA and/or MHRA gave their permission and it went horribly wrong. What would that do for the roll-out of all the various vaccines worldwide? We have enough problem in the UK due to MMR, and perhaps one of the contributory factors in the UK not rolling out MMRV.
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Oct 20, 2020 9:51:19 GMT
There seem to be various vaccines now in full scale production (and in use in China and possibly elsewhere) although not fully proven, why not let people (who are willing to take the hopefully small risk) have the vaccine. If a lot of young healthy people elected to have the vaccine it could have a rapid, significant effect on the spread (assuming of course that it works!). The issue isn't so much efficacy - that's established by this stage. It's side-effects... Hence, 'hopefully small risk'.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 20, 2020 10:04:40 GMT
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Post by dan1 on Oct 20, 2020 10:07:17 GMT
Interesting post in the context of the Welsh 17 day fire-break. Will they come out as planned? The relevant metric is, surely, not deaths - which lag weeks or months behind infections... but infections themselves. Unfortunately, we have absolutely no idea in this country what infections are really doing. The best we can come up with is positive tests... <snip> I deleted a long boring reply Don't forget the estimates are formed from REACT/ONS infection survey (possibly even the symptom tracker app) - they acknowledge that case numbers are not the most reliable source of the infection rate. The issue as I see it is what is Johnson's (sorry, Cummings') strategy? I guess that's why the Welsh & NI jumped the gun because it was too risky to wait for wishy washy stuff from No.10. Do the Welsh have the balls to come out of the fire-break when infections are falling (or at least the best evidence to support the fact) but deaths rising? I trust it would happen until Merkel but our politics is foobar.
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 20, 2020 10:26:33 GMT
There seem to be various vaccines now in full scale production (and in use in China and possibly elsewhere) although not fully proven, why not let people (who are willing to take the hopefully small risk) have the vaccine. If a lot of young healthy people elected to have the vaccine it could have a rapid, significant effect on the spread (assuming of course that it works!). First generation vaccines are expected to "work" in reducing the severity of the disease, but not necessarily preventing people from getting infected. So they wouldn't have a "significant effect on the spread". That also means these vaccines will absolutely need to be effective (at reducing disease) for older people and those most at risk to have some real impact. Flu vaccines for example are "less effective in older populations than in younger populations".
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