benaj
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Post by benaj on Nov 12, 2020 16:40:06 GMT
Any idea why 30843 cases reported in England?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Nov 12, 2020 16:47:14 GMT
33,470 new cases in the UK today . Any idea why 30843 cases reported in England? ~90% of cases in part of country with ~85% of the population... Doesn't seem unreasonable, even before you factor in the relative competence of those in charge of each part of the country.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Nov 12, 2020 17:28:30 GMT
33,470 new cases in the UK today . Last hurrah before lockdown started?
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Nov 12, 2020 20:24:08 GMT
Only a few Tier 3 cities in England have managed to reduce new daily cases in 4 weeks so far.
Knowsley, Liverpool, Lancaster, Sheffield
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on Nov 12, 2020 20:41:59 GMT
Only a few Tier 3 cities in England have managed to reduce new daily cases in 4 weeks so far. Knowsley, Liverpool, Lancaster, Sheffield
Congrats on 3,000 post with exactly 1000 likes Attachments:
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Nov 14, 2020 16:01:25 GMT
Only a few Tier 3 cities in England have managed to reduce new daily cases in 4 weeks so far. Knowsley, Liverpool, Lancaster, Sheffield
Congrats on 3,000 post with exactly 1000 likes Just come over all nostalgic watching the All Blacks playing the Argies in Sydney, with normal crowds in attendance.
How the other half live.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Nov 15, 2020 21:05:23 GMT
Boris isolating for 14 days having attended a meeting with an MP who subsequently tested positive.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Nov 16, 2020 8:29:53 GMT
Boris isolating for 14 days having attended a meeting with an MP who subsequently tested positive. "Social distancing rules were followed" Indoors. Closer than 2m. Barely 1m. No face coverings. Which rules are they? www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing"SPACE - Stay 2 metres apart from people you do not live with where possible, or 1 metre with extra precautions in place (such as wearing face coverings or increasing ventilation indoors).
... Where you cannot stay 2 metres apart you should stay more than 1 metre apart, and take additional steps to stay safe. For example:
wear a face covering: on public transport and in many indoor spaces, you must wear a face covering by law, unless you are exempt move outdoors, where it is safer and there is more space if indoors, make sure rooms are well ventilated by keeping windows and doors open"
Oh, so they'd turned the aircon way up, then? The windows appear to be very closed - and probably don't even open, for fairly obvious security reasons. Ah, of course. In true Morning Crescent style, it's the Barnard Castle variation...
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Nov 16, 2020 8:38:04 GMT
People say this is bad timing, but I don't know, at least he's locked in to some extent and has less opportunity to wander off to to find a willing lady or copy of Pericles. Perhaps it'll focus his mind.
edit: I still find it incredible that so much rests on a person variously described as a "shapeshifter" , "empty vessel" and (my personal favourite) a "remote control" this week.
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Post by dan1 on Nov 16, 2020 9:10:24 GMT
People say this is bad timing, but I don't know, at least he's locked in to some extent and has less opportunity to wander off to to find a willing lady or copy of Pericles. Perhaps it'll focus his mind. edit: I still find it incredible that so much rests on a person variously described as a "shapeshifter" , "empty vessel" and (my personal favourite) a "remote control" this week. Come on r00lish67, it beats the "dog ate my homework" excuse
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Post by dan1 on Nov 16, 2020 9:25:13 GMT
I found this interesting: Potential trajectories for COVID-19 in the next 6 months, 29 October 2020assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/935238/potential-trajectories-covid-190next-6-months-s0848-291020.pdfRecently published on 13 Nov but considered by SAGE on 29 October. It appears to debate the role of "population immunity" in controlling R t: This would explain getting students back to in person lectures and fully opening schools. I take great issue with "natural dynamics" because this is very much a result of government strategy - SAGE advise but they shouldn't allow their advice to be air brushed like this. No mention of the role of waning immunity given a large proportion (majority?) of those contracting the virus did so some 8 months ago now. I find that omission disturbing and a foretaste of what the country will endure as we enter winter. btw, Florida reported >10k cases yesterday which, as we are all too familiar, will inevitably lead to a rise in the number of deaths (~200 odd if testing is picking up 1 in 2 infections or thereabouts).
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Nov 16, 2020 11:12:13 GMT
I found this interesting: Potential trajectories for COVID-19 in the next 6 months, 29 October 2020assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/935238/potential-trajectories-covid-190next-6-months-s0848-291020.pdfRecently published on 13 Nov but considered by SAGE on 29 October. It appears to debate the role of "population immunity" in controlling R t: This would explain getting students back to in person lectures and fully opening schools. I take great issue with "natural dynamics" because this is very much a result of government strategy - SAGE advise but they shouldn't allow their advice to be air brushed like this. No mention of the role of waning immunity given a large proportion (majority?) of those contracting the virus did so some 8 months ago now. I find that omission disturbing and a foretaste of what the country will endure as we enter winter. btw, Florida reported >10k cases yesterday which, as we are all too familiar, will inevitably lead to a rise in the number of deaths (~200 odd if testing is picking up 1 in 2 infections or thereabouts). Well, it is about "Potential trajectories for COVID-19 in the next 6 months" so perhaps not surprising they don't mention waning immunity in the longer period. They do mention "this is very different from a classic “herd-immunity” scenario ... potentially leading to a long, relatively flat plateau of relatively high incidence unless measures are further intensified to drive incidence down" and "There will be very limited room to relax interventions, since the absolute level of population immunity reached will likely still be low". The way I read it is they're basically saying: if we cannot have more restrictive measures, at least get the R down to 1.1 or so and the epidemic should gradually plateau (albeit at a high level) without spiralling completely out of control.
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james100
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Post by james100 on Nov 16, 2020 11:15:12 GMT
People say this is bad timing, but I don't know, at least he's locked in to some extent and has less opportunity to wander off to to find a willing lady or copy of Pericles. Perhaps it'll focus his mind. edit: I still find it incredible that so much rests on a person variously described as a "shapeshifter" , "empty vessel" and (my personal favourite) a "remote control" this week. Come on r00lish67, it beats the "dog ate my homework" excuse "A lady made me do it" Interesting take on things by Mary Beard here: www.the-tls.co.uk/articles/carrie-symonds-and-the-livia-problem-blog-post-mary-beard/
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Post by dan1 on Nov 16, 2020 11:31:24 GMT
I found this interesting: Potential trajectories for COVID-19 in the next 6 months, 29 October 2020assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/935238/potential-trajectories-covid-190next-6-months-s0848-291020.pdfRecently published on 13 Nov but considered by SAGE on 29 October. It appears to debate the role of "population immunity" in controlling R t: This would explain getting students back to in person lectures and fully opening schools. I take great issue with "natural dynamics" because this is very much a result of government strategy - SAGE advise but they shouldn't allow their advice to be air brushed like this. No mention of the role of waning immunity given a large proportion (majority?) of those contracting the virus did so some 8 months ago now. I find that omission disturbing and a foretaste of what the country will endure as we enter winter. btw, Florida reported >10k cases yesterday which, as we are all too familiar, will inevitably lead to a rise in the number of deaths (~200 odd if testing is picking up 1 in 2 infections or thereabouts). Well, it is about "Potential trajectories for COVID-19 in the next 6 months" so perhaps not surprising they don't mention waning immunity in the longer period. They do mention "this is very different from a classic “herd-immunity” scenario ... potentially leading to a long, relatively flat plateau of relatively high incidence unless measures are further intensified to drive incidence down" and "There will be very limited room to relax interventions, since the absolute level of population immunity reached will likely still be low". The way I read it is they're basically saying: if we cannot have more restrictive measures, at least get the R down to 1.1 or so and the epidemic should gradually plateau (albeit at a high level) without spiralling completely out of control. It's interesting that we can actually estimate the human cost in terms of lives lost (and remember, for the sake of this argument we are ignoring the long term effects of those infected yet survive) to reduce R t. To reduce R t from 1.1 to 1.0 would require a further attack rate of 9% of the population of ~67 mil. The late stage IFR is currently modelled at 0.77% (see here). Therefore, assuming immunity doesn't wane (which there is evidence to the contrary), enhanced treatments don't materialise (which we'd hope is not the case), and a representative proportion of the population are infected (protecting the vulnerable and elderly has failed to date)*, then we're looking at somewhere like 46k dead to achieve an indiscernable reduction in R t. *I'm ignoring the wackos that say those susceptible have already died, and that these are the main, not unreasonable, assumptions. I'm implicitly assuming these infections would take place before a vaccine has been rolled out (remember, after 10 months we still are not regularly testing all healthcare workers and care home residents + staff so what hope have we of rolling out a vaccine in double quick time?).
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Post by dan1 on Nov 16, 2020 11:41:05 GMT
Thank you I don't pretend to understand all of the sub texts I'm afraid but I appreciate the combination of misogyny, classics, and Mary Beard (one assumes it was Dom who blocked her appointment? Thankfully defied by the trustees).
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