mrk
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Post by mrk on Nov 16, 2020 13:26:47 GMT
Am I right in thinkng that 95% effective is twice as good as 90% (as in you are half as likely to contract the virus)? Not of contracting the virus, but of developing symptoms. But yes, 90% means that if e.g. 100 people show Covid-19 symptoms in the placebo group then 10 will do in the vaccine group, while with 95% effectiveness that would be 5, which is technically half. Then again these are interim results, I wouldn't pay too much attention to small differences in the percentages.
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Post by bracknellboy on Nov 16, 2020 13:27:22 GMT
If vaccines for sars-cov-2 are so easy* are we looking at a future in which they combine vaccines for the common cold coronaviruses with sars-cov-2? *I jest of course, drunk on the good news this morning and there in lies a warning lest we celebrate too much. I recall that part of the issue with common cold coronaviruses is not just the number of them, but that immune response to them following infection fades fairly quickly, and hence you can suffer from the same one serveral times.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Nov 16, 2020 13:39:41 GMT
Moderna's is apparently storable at -20 degrees C, which makes it much easier to handle / distribute when compared with Pfizer's.
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Steerpike
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Post by Steerpike on Nov 16, 2020 13:50:23 GMT
If vaccines for sars-cov-2 are so easy* are we looking at a future in which they combine vaccines for the common cold coronaviruses with sars-cov-2? *I jest of course, drunk on the good news this morning and there in lies a warning lest we celebrate too much. I recall that part of the issue with common cold coronaviruses is not just the number of them, but that immune response to them following infection fades fairly quickly, and hence you can suffer from the same one serveral times. If you haven't already, time to go long on big pharma, looks like a one way bet with billions of doses of new vaccine every year.
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Nov 16, 2020 14:05:13 GMT
and there in lies a warning lest we celebrate too much. I recall that part of the issue with common cold coronaviruses is not just the number of them, but that immune response to them following infection fades fairly quickly, and hence you can suffer from the same one serveral times. If you haven't already, time to go long on big pharma, looks like a one way bet with billions of doses of new vaccine every year. But in the next few weeks it may turn out to be the case that one vaccine is much better in some sense than all the others so folk will rush for that one and the other will be sold to those less able to afford to pay more. i.e. Maybe one or two big pharam may shoot off but the others left in doldrums ?
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Post by dan1 on Nov 16, 2020 14:08:43 GMT
It's not equivalent nor analogous nor is it determined however, I can't help but think of those who died or were wounded following the signing of the Armistice but prior to the eleventh hour in terms of those who will die prior to being offered vaccination.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Nov 16, 2020 15:27:14 GMT
"Only" 85% effective is going to be seen as abject failure now, isn't it?
As for market predictions - shorting Biontech a few days ago would have been rather a good move, but who would have been that brave?
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Nov 16, 2020 15:49:10 GMT
"Only" 85% effective is going to be seen as abject failure now, isn't it? As for market predictions - shorting Biontech a few days ago would have been rather a good move, but who would have been that brave? Chief Exec of Biontech?
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Nov 16, 2020 15:56:31 GMT
and there in lies a warning lest we celebrate too much. I recall that part of the issue with common cold coronaviruses is not just the number of them, but that immune response to them following infection fades fairly quickly, and hence you can suffer from the same one serveral times. If you haven't already, time to go long on big pharma, looks like a one way bet with billions of doses of new vaccine every year. People must see a long term earning potential for an effective vaccine.
LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Johnson & Johnson launched a new late-stage trial in Britain on Monday to test a two-dose regimen of its experimental COVID-19 vaccine among thousands of volunteers
If successful the vaccine won't come on stream until Q3 2021 at earliest.
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Post by dan1 on Nov 16, 2020 16:23:32 GMT
If you haven't already, time to go long on big pharma, looks like a one way bet with billions of doses of new vaccine every year. People must see a long term earning potential for an effective vaccine. LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Johnson & Johnson launched a new late-stage trial in Britain on Monday to test a two-dose regimen of its experimental COVID-19 vaccine among thousands of volunteers If successful the vaccine won't come on stream until Q3 2021 at earliest.
J&J must be fairly confident of high enough rate of community transmission over the next few months to justify the expense/hassle of rolling out the trial here. Not that it comes as any surprise just realisation of what we're in for. I was a little more blasé when AZN rolled out trials in Brazil and the US over the summer
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Nov 16, 2020 16:43:31 GMT
Covid-related deaths have been rapidly climbing in El Paso, Texas where prisoners are being paid £1.50 / hr to help move bodies to refrigerated lorries that are being used as temporary morgues. They are all low-level offenders and have been voluntarily working since last week, the spokesman added.
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Post by bracknellboy on Nov 16, 2020 16:51:25 GMT
If you haven't already, time to go long on big pharma, looks like a one way bet with billions of doses of new vaccine every year. But in the next few weeks it may turn out to be the case that one vaccine is much better in some sense than all the others so folk will rush for that one and the other will be sold to those less able to afford to pay more. i.e. Maybe one or two big pharam may shoot off but the others left in doldrums ? There is a problem with that: globally vaccination is going to be a supply side problem not a demand side problem for some considerable time. Now, whether facilities can be switched focus to ramp up production on the 2 or 3 most effective vaccines is another matter.
Still, I'm not going to be head of the Q for the Russian vaccine unless its gone through UK approvals. And i suspect they'll have their own demand to satisfy first anyway.
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Post by bracknellboy on Nov 16, 2020 17:19:14 GMT
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Nov 16, 2020 18:06:11 GMT
But in the next few weeks it may turn out to be the case that one vaccine is much better in some sense than all the others so folk will rush for that one and the other will be sold to those less able to afford to pay more. i.e. Maybe one or two big pharam may shoot off but the others left in doldrums ? There is a problem with that: globally vaccination is going to be a supply side problem not a demand side problem for some considerable time. Now, whether facilities can be switched focus to ramp up production on the 2 or 3 most effective vaccines is another matter.
Still, I'm not going to be head of the Q for the Russian vaccine unless its gone through UK approvals. And i suspect they'll have their own demand to satisfy first anyway.
Me neither. Who in the UK would ?
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Post by dan1 on Nov 16, 2020 18:09:48 GMT
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