Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Dec 20, 2020 6:46:31 GMT
You can still eat too much, drink too much and fall asleep in front of the TV.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 20, 2020 8:12:54 GMT
I'm now in tier 1, but the other side of the road (quite literally) is in uber-lockdown... Make the most of it, you'll be back in tier 2 before you can say 'no I don't want a substantial meal with my pint' It's going to make precisely zero difference to us, because we aren't entitled muppets...
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Dec 20, 2020 11:31:27 GMT
FT article re: the bounceback scheme. "‘A giant bonfire of taxpayers’ money: fraud and the UK pandemic loan scheme". I'm sure this won't come as a surprise to many here. I try not to think about it, but just what has been the total cost to the taxpayer so far of this Government's errors? - The almost unimaginably poor value of the hugely expensive test and trace system. - The mind-blowing cost of Brexit so far (as well as the opportunity cost in terms of what we could have done instead). - The (probably technically low but morally reprehensible) cost of 'contracts for mates' handed out throughout COVID. - The £3bn wasted pretty much personally attributable to Grayling. Aside from the above points (and let's face it, there's probably countless more, that was just off the top of my head) attributable to the incompetence/malfeasance of the Government, there's of course the reasonably justified but equally huge costs of all of the salary support schemes for COVID. My point is not really to try score political points. I mean, at this stage, what is the point? If this was a football game it would be 39-0. I'm just wondering at what point exactly does the country run out of money? (appreciate we wouldn't technically run out of money as we can print it, but you get what I mean)
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Post by bracknellboy on Dec 20, 2020 11:37:46 GMT
FT article re: the bounceback scheme. "‘A giant bonfire of taxpayers’ money: fraud and the UK pandemic loan scheme". I'm sure this won't come as a surprise to many here. ...... (appreciate we wouldn't technically run out of money as we can print it, but you get what I mean) ssshhhhh....Ribs might hear you
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Dec 20, 2020 11:40:09 GMT
FT article re: the bounceback scheme. "‘A giant bonfire of taxpayers’ money: fraud and the UK pandemic loan scheme". I'm sure this won't come as a surprise to many here. ...... (appreciate we wouldn't technically run out of money as we can print it, but you get what I mean) ssshhhhh....Ribs might hear you Ha! I was going to say that - bitcoin is obviously the answer!
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Post by bracknellboy on Dec 20, 2020 11:47:34 GMT
.... Is R more about people behaviour, events, super spreader people, super spreader events than intrinsic transmitting differences between close variants of a virus? Is it a mixture of all those and others too - like the weather - and interactions and feedbacks between them? ... I think the only number that has been put on this board is the +0.4 number: that isn't coming from keyboard warriors or the referenced article per se: its simply the number currently estimated by the group advising the govt: it was stated in yesterdays conference. And yes it was caveated as a 'current estimate' etc. etc. and the point that its dependant on behaviours etc. etc. is simply a statement of the bleeding obvious, so to speak: what after all is the point of everything that we've been going through since March if it isn't to change behaviours precisely to change how quickly this b******d spreads. I think you'll find that what when referring to th impact of +0.4, they are referring to 'under the otherwise same set of behaviours/restrictions etc. And yes, its possible that peoples behaviours have lapsed a little even given the same set of restrictions. The point made earlier, that infection rates did not get under control under Tier3 where this strain is prevalent is the main point though. And the very fact it is rapidly becoming the dominant strain is the evidence of its greater propensity to infect under the same conditions than other strains.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Dec 20, 2020 12:20:19 GMT
I just saw this little snippet in the Guardian. "Britain’s National Health Service has been planning to have everyone in England vaccinated by early April, with similar programmes being rolled out across Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland." It's actually the first time I've heard that (I'm not in the UK so probably just that I'm not following as closely). That sounds great if true. Do people following more closely than me think that's actually realistic?
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Dec 20, 2020 12:27:54 GMT
I just saw this little snippet in the Guardian. "Britain’s National Health Service has been planning to have everyone in England vaccinated by early April, with similar programmes being rolled out across Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland." It's actually the first time I've heard that (I'm not in the UK so probably just that I'm not following as closely). That sounds great if true. Do people following more closely than me think that's actually realistic? I believe that this is what was said when the original rollout hierarchy was unveiled. Only problem is that on Sky this morning they said key workers and high risk only by Easter.
Ultimately, I don't know which will be the determining factor: the availability of vaccine or the availability of healthcare expert to carry out the vaccinations.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Dec 20, 2020 12:31:28 GMT
I just saw this little snippet in the Guardian. "Britain’s National Health Service has been planning to have everyone in England vaccinated by early April, with similar programmes being rolled out across Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland." It's actually the first time I've heard that (I'm not in the UK so probably just that I'm not following as closely). That sounds great if true. Do people following more closely than me think that's actually realistic? I believe that this is what was said when the original rollout hierarchy was unveiled. Only problem is that on Sky this morning they said key workers and high risk only by Easter.
Ultimately, I don't know which will be the determining factor: the availability of vaccine or the availability of healthcare expert to carry out the vaccinations.
Bugger. Thought that sounded a bit too good to be true. Still, good progress so far - 500k will have had their first shot by end of today apparently.
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Dec 20, 2020 13:20:06 GMT
Whilst I’m sure there are people in existence with the analytical skills to rigorously analyse data problems of this sort, I’m not sure the datasets are there for this virus variant to allow all multitude of variables to be reliably adjusted for and draw strong conclusions on a ceteris paribus basis. Of course we don't have all the information yet, but as is frequently the case you need to make decisions based on the information currently available, even if it's incomplete. This is the official statement from the CMO: I don't see why the Government would make such a huge U-turn on Christmas rules if they didn't have very good reasons to be concerned.
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dead-money
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Post by dead-money on Dec 20, 2020 13:24:28 GMT
I believe that this is what was said when the original rollout hierarchy was unveiled. Only problem is that on Sky this morning they said key workers and high risk only by Easter.
Ultimately, I don't know which will be the determining factor: the availability of vaccine or the availability of healthcare expert to carry out the vaccinations.
Bugger. Thought that sounded a bit too good to be true. Still, good progress so far - 500k will have had their first shot by end of today apparently. They are recruiting anyone who's good with a needle to administer the vaccinations, so Vets, Dentists, etc. Problem is twofold; time to receive & distribute supplies, time and skills to inject. Know three people on the wait list for pre-Christmas, all NHS front-line and haven't received it yet; indeed only one's ever had a CV test either!
PS Oh and remember they'll all need a second dose after three weeks for immunity to be effective and still unclear how long it will last and against how many variants.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Dec 20, 2020 15:24:49 GMT
Germany isn’t reporting on a new variant and they’ve cancelled Christmas relaxation rules. And they did so considerably before the UK.
Yup. Germany has the best of both worlds. Senior government officials with their heads screwed on, and a person in charge with a science degree.
New Zealand would be a good alternative.
Although, almost any Western government would be better than Boris and co.
(I do however recognise the electorate were put between a rock and a hard place, magic-grandpa-back-to-1970's-marxism Corbyn and Boris. They chose the least-worst option of the two - or the FPTP system chose that option for them, depending how you look at it).
You mean record infections and record deaths?
It's easy for NZ to tackle the virus by insisting that everyone entering the country has 2 weeks quarantine. Would be interesting to see how this would work with the 10,000 lorry drivers that pass through Dover each day
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michaelc
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Post by michaelc on Dec 20, 2020 15:38:49 GMT
Of course we don't have all the information yet, but as is frequently the case you need to make decisions based on the information currently available, even if it's incomplete. This is the official statement from the CMO: I don't see why the Government would make such a huge U-turn on Christmas rules if they didn't have very good reasons to be concerned. I’m not disagreeing per se. My personal view is the U-turn on Christmas isn’t surprising. The rising case numbers alone are sufficient to make crystal clear the folly that was the Christmas relaxation plans. And it should have been evident to anyone vaguely scientific that even if the numbers hadn’t gone up pre Xmas it would have been “virus spread Armageddon” in the new year had the plans gone ahead. Germany isn’t reporting on a new variant and they’ve cancelled Christmas relaxation rules. And they did so considerably before the UK. I’d like to see non-sensational clear scientific reporting on the new virus variant without agenda and particularly without intermingling with narratives around the incompetence or otherwise about tiers, lockdowns and U-turns of blindingly obviously dangerous Christmas 5 day relaxations. Wouldn't we all but very sadly it is becoming extremely difficult to pick out the wheat from the chaff.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Dec 20, 2020 15:45:03 GMT
Well, in more immediate, personal news, my stepfather (91) got his first jab last week, and, Julia, the old girl I do some shopping for got hers a few days earlier (she's in her early eighties but had a hospital appointment for something else so she was done opportunistically, which makes sense in my eyes).
So it is happening.....
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Dec 20, 2020 16:02:50 GMT
Yup. Germany has the best of both worlds. Senior government officials with their heads screwed on, and a person in charge with a science degree. You mean record infections and record deaths? Except they don't have... Fewer infections than Spain, and half as many deaths - despite a population twice the size. 75% as many infections as the UK, 40% the deaths - despite a pop'n 50% bigger. Only a bit over half the infection/1m pop'n rate as the UK - and fewer than a third as many deaths. www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
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