michaelc
Member of DD Central
Say No To T.D.S.
Posts: 5,717 
Likes: 2,987
|
Post by michaelc on Mar 18, 2020 23:28:04 GMT
The military is being tee'd up (not scary - sensible). you need enough people on every street to enforce the lockdown. not looking forward to "show me your papers" With any luck most people will follow the rules. Some because they believe in the rules and some because culturally we like to follow rules. There will be all sorts of exceptions and difficulties but I suppose that if an individual person is asked to supply proof of address and they don't live somewhere that reasonably accounts for them being where they are on the way to/fro a "legitimate" shop they might get fined. 4,000 in France fined today apparently. At least there's no danger of being shipped off to Treblinka.
|
|
|
|
Post by pepperpot on Mar 18, 2020 23:47:09 GMT
This article was less than 2 weeks ago about a Spainish care home and Spains 3rd reported death. At the time there were 234 known cases and 3 deaths in Spain. Those figures are now 14,769 cases and 638 deaths. In just 2 weeks time from now and without people drastically restricting movement, that rate of increase means those numbers would be about 1 million cases with about 120 thousand dead. That's using the relevant % increase between the two time points for each figure. At some point before 2 weeks is up, the health service would be overwhelmed. It's anybody's guess where the death toll rises to in that scenario.
Just 2 weeks!
Not enough time to build enough ventilators.
Then they have the rest of the year to get through.
Please do all you possibly can to prevent transmition, not just for you and those around you, but for me and everyone else.
#Blitzspirit
edit; if these sort of numbers have already been covered, I apologise, I've not read the whole thread.
|
|
|
|
Post by pepperpot on Mar 19, 2020 0:03:11 GMT
you need enough people on every street to enforce the lockdown. not looking forward to "show me your papers" No argument. But the "lockdown" has to be porous enough to allow people to get to the shops no? If not, how is that addressed?
And don't get too close to the delivery personnel.
|
|
|
|
Post by wildlife2 on Mar 19, 2020 0:05:19 GMT
The NHS are going to be helped by the military soon.
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,626
Likes: 6,440
|
Post by registerme on Mar 19, 2020 1:54:48 GMT
|
|
Stonk
Stonking
Posts: 735
Likes: 658
|
Post by Stonk on Mar 19, 2020 2:02:29 GMT
The NHS are going to be helped by the military soon.
The Army will be essential at hospitals. NHS staff are on the receiving end of bad enough abuse already, what with people turning up at A&E with a little cut on their finger thinking they're the centre of the world and demanding attention right now.
In a handful of weeks, someone arriving at a hospital bleeding profusely from a severed arm in a car accident will be told to tie a sheet round it and join the back of the snaking queue behind all those with more serious problems. Next up, an otherwise healthy-looking 75 year-old man, coughing and having increasing difficulty breathing, together with his daughter who brought him in, are told that because he is over 70 he will not be treated, to leave the grounds and advised to go somewhere quiet to spend their last hours together.
What part of this are people failing to see coming?
For God's sake, but mostly for society's sake (because surely no further proof is needed regarding the former) -- STOP spreading this virus. And do not do anything that unnecessarily risks requiring medical attention.
|
|
|
|
Post by bernythedolt on Mar 19, 2020 3:11:34 GMT
 I'm not sure how accurate the data is, but if it's even close it's a pretty powerful message.
Absolutely this.
I can't arrive at those exact numbers, but the principle is spot on. People often say "exponential growth" to mean "fast" without realising what it means and how powerful it is.
3 to the 5th power (243) is MUCH bigger than 2 to the 5th power (32), which in turn is MUCH bigger than 1.5 to the 5th power (7.6).
The more time periods, the more dramatic it gets. 3 to the 10th power is 59,049 ; 1.5 to the 10th power is 58.
Better still: 1 to any power remains just 1.
This is precisely why I took my daughter out of school, a mass gathering that was being positively encouraged. If she was instrumental in unnecessarily infecting 2 other people, and they each infected 2 other people, who then all infected another 2, then a few steps down the line you are in the thousands, some of whom will die, and I will have their blood on my hands.
The formula you're looking for is (x 7-1) / (x-1) where x is the multiplier (also known as R 0 I believe). For example, when x=2.5, the 30 day infection is (2.5 7 - 1) / (2.5 - 1) = 609.35 / 1.5 = 406.
|
|
Stonk
Stonking
Posts: 735
Likes: 658
|
Post by Stonk on Mar 19, 2020 3:22:21 GMT
The formula you're looking for is (x 7-1) / (x-1) where x is the multiplier (also known as R 0 I believe). For example, when x=2.5, the 30 day infection is (2.5 7 - 1) / (2.5 - 1) = 609.35 / 1.5 = 406. Ah, yes. The crucial thing being that the 7 is the number of time periods, which makes it exponential growth, whose ultimate size is massively dependent on the infection ratio R 0 (or x).
|
|
|
|
Post by bernythedolt on Mar 19, 2020 3:57:15 GMT
The formula you're looking for is (x 7-1) / (x-1) where x is the multiplier (also known as R 0 I believe). For example, when x=2.5, the 30 day infection is (2.5 7 - 1) / (2.5 - 1) = 609.35 / 1.5 = 406. Ah, yes. The crucial thing being that the 7 is the number of time periods, which makes it exponential growth, whose ultimate size is massively dependent on the infection ratio R 0 (or x). Yes, seven entities being summed over six time periods leading to the 7 in the series summation. Your main point about the exponential growth is spot on. The ideal is to get x (R 0) below 1, whereupon the summation then quickly converges towards 1, as depicted in the graphic, and the spread is halted.
|
|
Greenwood2
Member of DD Central
Posts: 4,388
Likes: 2,787
|
Post by Greenwood2 on Mar 19, 2020 7:24:36 GMT
The NHS are going to be helped by the military soon.
The Army will be essential at hospitals. NHS staff are on the receiving end of bad enough abuse already, what with people turning up at A&E with a little cut on their finger thinking they're the centre of the world and demanding attention right now.
In a handful of weeks, someone arriving at a hospital bleeding profusely from a severed arm in a car accident will be told to tie a sheet round it and join the back of the snaking queue behind all those with more serious problems. Next up, an otherwise healthy-looking 75 year-old man, coughing and having increasing difficulty breathing, together with his daughter who brought him in, are told that because he is over 70 he will not be treated, to leave the grounds and advised to go somewhere quiet to spend their last hours together.
What part of this are people failing to see coming?
For God's sake, but mostly for society's sake (because surely no further proof is needed regarding the former) -- STOP spreading this virus. And do not do anything that unnecessarily risks requiring medical attention.
I do like a bit of optimism. 
|
|
macq
Member of DD Central
Posts: 1,934
Likes: 1,199
|
Post by macq on Mar 19, 2020 8:11:49 GMT
I'm not sure how accurate the data is, but if it's even close it's a pretty powerful message. Great post and i am not sure it really matters how accurate the data is as it's the message that counts and it does that in such simple terms better than press conferences or talking heads and that anybody can see at first glance.Even with Govt figures used this would be a great poster/advert or used on news sites to show whats trying to be achieved as lets be fair most people don't think about (or maybe understand) compounding with money so will not be thinking in those terms with the virus. For Once i am not making a bad joke/pun but its a shame that at least the idea of this illustration can't go viral so more people can see it rather then what celeb has made a bad joke or how their stuck in their penthouse
|
|
|
|
Post by moonraker on Mar 19, 2020 8:24:50 GMT
A tip - if you are not currently a member of your local library might be worth going in and signing up (will normally need proof you live or work in the county). I've just received an email from mine implying libraries may have to close. Many library memberships include virtual libraries via tablet/phone apps, and free access to national media publications (newspapers, magazines incl New Scientist etc) bypassing paywalls. Many local libraries, including mine, have already closed. Mine had already trimmed slashed its print periodicals and on-line resources. Some of the latter were available only on the library's somewhat clunky terminals, in local and family history rooms for example - one couldn't access them from home. It's been suggested that genealogical resources might like to facilitate this.
|
|
cb25
Posts: 3,528
Likes: 2,668
|
Post by cb25 on Mar 19, 2020 8:31:08 GMT
I'm not sure how accurate the data is, but if it's even close it's a pretty powerful message. Great post and i am not sure it really matters how accurate the data is as it's the message that counts and it does that in such simple terms better than press conferences or talking heads and that anybody can see at first glance.Even with Govt figures used this would be a great poster/advert or used on news sites to show whats trying to be achieved as lets be fair most people don't think about (or maybe understand) compounding with money so will not be thinking in those terms with the virus. For Once i am not making a bad joke/pun but its a shame that at least the idea of this illustration can't go viral so more people can see it rather then what celeb has made a bad joke or how their stuck in their penthouse Consequence of government not shutting pubs and not extending self-isolation to all age groups is illustrated here in the Metro, huge crowds in pubs. Contrast that with the BBC reporting China (lockdown affecting all ages) reports no new cases.
|
|
|
|
Post by bracknellboy on Mar 19, 2020 8:44:20 GMT
Great post and i am not sure it really matters how accurate the data is as it's the message that counts and it does that in such simple terms better than press conferences or talking heads and that anybody can see at first glance.Even with Govt figures used this would be a great poster/advert or used on news sites to show whats trying to be achieved as lets be fair most people don't think about (or maybe understand) compounding with money so will not be thinking in those terms with the virus. For Once i am not making a bad joke/pun but its a shame that at least the idea of this illustration can't go viral so more people can see it rather then what celeb has made a bad joke or how their stuck in their penthouse huge crowds in pubs. Contrast that with the BBC reporting China (lockdown affecting all ages) reports no new cases. Human petri dish. Has the govt really been "following the scientific advice" or have they been toning it down with dither and delay ?
|
|
|
|
Post by bracknellboy on Mar 19, 2020 8:50:44 GMT
Which is every time you are out and touch anything!
Well, you don't have to wash every time you touch anything. Having the virus on your hands won't harm you. It's only if you subsequently touch your face near your orifices (although best to keep clear of your face completely to be sure). The skin is a damn tough barrier; it keeps out all manner of pathogens that would do serious damage once they get into your nice warm moist insides.
Hence the official advice: only touch your face with thoroughly washed hands.
Not so true if you suffer from skin conditions such as eczema/dermatitis meaning you frequently / permanently have breaks in the skin. And which not surprisingly gets worse with frequent washing or use of hand gels.
|
|
