Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on Mar 19, 2020 8:51:57 GMT
Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College's MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease, and one of the experts with a very high profile at the moment, has Coronovirus. He was able to speak on the programme after some nasty symptoms over 24 hours. He's been in the same space (I'm not sure how much) as other prominent people, including the PM. He reckons that the Westminster locality is a "hotbed" for the virus. And some stores are opening early for older customers.So from wondering whether I can knock four years off my age, I can now make sure that I look it! (Seriously, I am not going to take advantage.) From the BBC website: "From Monday 23 March disabled Sainsbury's customers and those over 70 will be given priority for online delivery slots." I wonder how would one prove entitlement - and how many younger family members would piggyback on the facility. Not sure that encouraging older customers to congregate in stores (early or at any other time) was what the government intended when they said they should self-isolate (OK, technically that doesn't kick in for a few days). And, yes, I can see family members giving their shopping list - or at least the items with temporary shortages - to their older relatives.
Edit: BBC reports about Sainsbury's "And on 19 March the first hour of shopping will be dedicated to older and vulnerable people in its 600 UK stores.". Not sure if that's a one-off, literally just 19 March, but again it's going to bring lots of the elderly together just as the government is saying they should stay isolated. This worked well at my local Sainsburys, drove down there at opening time, there did seem to be a lot of traffic about that early in the morning, then a queue of cars round the block to get into the car park! Abort! I didn't get close enough to see whether there were checks at the door or limits on numbers of people going in, if not they must have been packed like sardines in the shop.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 19, 2020 8:57:46 GMT
Just to remind people: The models based on Spanish flu do suggest that if you're too effective in suppressing the first wave, you end up with even more people infected overall as the second wave hits you harder. It isn't as blindingly obvious as everyone seems to make out when screaming for more and more restrictions faster and faster. There are some super experts trying to balance everything here, and I think Dunning-Kruger is likely to apply to most people commenting on this (myself included). Blue is the optimal on the models, not green (no controls) or red (too many controls). When this is all over in two years, we'll have more data I hope for next time around. (and that's just infection rates - there are massive social and health costs both of the lock downs themselves, and of the economic consequences, that have to be considered in the overall balance) Anyway - just preparing for 15 days of awfulness in London, followed by several months more, and several months after that (in between selling what P2P I still can!) Attachments:
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Stonk
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Post by Stonk on Mar 19, 2020 9:42:56 GMT
Just to remind people: The models based on Spanish flu do suggest that if you're too effective in suppressing the first wave, you end up with even more people infected overall as the second wave hits you harder. It isn't as blindingly obvious as everyone seems to make out when screaming for more and more restrictions faster and faster. There are some super experts trying to balance everything here, and I think Dunning-Kruger is likely to apply to most people commenting on this (myself included). Blue is the optimal on the models, not green (no controls) or red (too many controls). When this is all over in two years, we'll have more data I hope for next time around. (and that's just infection rates - there are massive social and health costs both of the lock downs themselves, and of the economic consequences, that have to be considered in the overall balance) Anyway - just preparing for 15 days of awfulness in London, followed by several months more, and several months after that (in between selling what P2P I still can!)
The Imperial College modelling is showing this. There are a lot of unknowns, but it's the best we have. We need to suppress the first wave hard, in order not to overwhelm the NHS. That means doing what we are told.
Left unchecked, the outbreak would cause hospitalisations to exceed medical capacity in early- to mid- April. It would continue escalating rapidly until hospitalisations peak in mid-May at 35 times available capacity. It would return within capacity in early July. If you know about integration and area under curves, you'll know the number of deaths would be proportional to area under the curve. They say it would be hundred of thousands, the very vast majority of which are directly as a result of lack of resources.
By doing everything we are supposed to be doing now, the model says we can keep demand below capacity during a 5-month period of isolation, closures, social distancing, etc. But if any of the measures are omitted, or implemented badly, then the demand will exceed capacity. It looks very sensitive to slight changes in the effectiveness of the measures.
The problem being referred to is the possibility of a catastrophic later recurrence, and the Imperial College modelling knows all about this. Yes, it is true, the harder we suppress now, the worse the later outbreak. But during those 5 months we buy time to increase capacity, perhaps make progress on a vaccine. You can bet your life that regulatory and ethical hurdles will be swept aside in the vaccine development, and it may come quicker than the 18 months that is being quoted. Even so, it seems highly unlikely that we would be able to gear up to keep the second wave within available capacity. I imagine there would be a phased removal of the measures: perhaps people would be released from isolation by age, maybe those under 25 can go out in September, then 25-35 year-olds in October, and so on. Each release will lead to a new peak of hospitalisations, and the aim would be to keep those peaks under capacity.
In the graphs, the RED horizontal line is available capacity (which in fact will gradually increase over time as we gear up). BLACK is the unchecked spread. We have been on the ORANGE line, and are about to start doing the GREEN line. If we don't implement those measures well, we'll trend up towards the orange line or worse. (The lower graph is just a close-up of the upper one.)
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 19, 2020 10:23:27 GMT
which why we are looking at intermittent lockdowns for the forseeable. Also from the Imperial paper: Attachments:
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macq
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Post by macq on Mar 19, 2020 10:23:31 GMT
Great post and i am not sure it really matters how accurate the data is as it's the message that counts and it does that in such simple terms better than press conferences or talking heads and that anybody can see at first glance.Even with Govt figures used this would be a great poster/advert or used on news sites to show whats trying to be achieved as lets be fair most people don't think about (or maybe understand) compounding with money so will not be thinking in those terms with the virus. For Once i am not making a bad joke/pun but its a shame that at least the idea of this illustration can't go viral so more people can see it rather then what celeb has made a bad joke or how their stuck in their penthouse Consequence of government not shutting pubs and not extending self-isolation to all age groups is illustrated here in the Metro, huge crowds in pubs. Contrast that with the BBC reporting China (lockdown affecting all ages) reports no new cases. the trouble is that people are still thinking they know best or we are a democracy and can't do a China.You can see pictures like the Ones from America of all the youngsters on the beach and pools for "spring break" or so called dog walkers in Spain meeting for group chats etc or i have heard people in the shops last weekend saying if i'm ill i will still go to work as i need to pay the bills or my favourite an OAP saying i can fight the blitz so i can fight this nothings keeping me in (and seen different versions of this on tv)
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 19, 2020 11:59:28 GMT
Just to remind people: The models based on Spanish flu do suggest that if you're too effective in suppressing the first wave, you end up with even more people infected overall as the second wave hits you harder. It isn't as blindingly obvious as everyone seems to make out when screaming for more and more restrictions faster and faster. There are some super experts trying to balance everything here, and I think Dunning-Kruger is likely to apply to most people commenting on this (myself included). Blue is the optimal on the models, not green (no controls) or red (too many controls). When this is all over in two years, we'll have more data I hope for next time around. (and that's just infection rates - there are massive social and health costs both of the lock downs themselves, and of the economic consequences, that have to be considered in the overall balance) Anyway - just preparing for 15 days of awfulness in London, followed by several months more, and several months after that (in between selling what P2P I still can!) But didn't the experience of St Louis locking down, while Philadelphia didn't, demonstrate that lockdown worked and lives were saved overall? qz.com/1816060/a-chart-of-the-1918-spanish-flu-shows-why-social-distancing-works/
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 19, 2020 12:21:09 GMT
Hopeful signs reported in the Telegraph "Hopes that the experimental drug remdesivir could cure patients of coronavirus were raised after a 79-year-old Italian man who had tested positive was given the all-clear following treatment. ... Currently remdesivir is being tested in five Covid-19 clinical trials including by the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) ... The first person to test positive with the virus in the US was also treated with drug and has since fully recovered." |
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Post by bernythedolt on Mar 19, 2020 12:22:30 GMT
Consequence of government not shutting pubs and not extending self-isolation to all age groups is illustrated here in the Metro, huge crowds in pubs. Contrast that with the BBC reporting China (lockdown affecting all ages) reports no new cases. Ever since the liberal 1960s, we have managed to gradually erode discipline out of UK society and instead bred generations of the ever more self-important "I know my rights" brigade. Maybe it's just age, but it strikes me people are now more selfish than ever before. NOTHING short of martial law will stop today's youngsters congregating where alcohol is being served. Unless THEY were afflicted by the virus, of course... then just watch the 'me me me' instinct take over.
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 19, 2020 12:27:17 GMT
Consequence of government not shutting pubs and not extending self-isolation to all age groups is illustrated here in the Metro, huge crowds in pubs. Contrast that with the BBC reporting China (lockdown affecting all ages) reports no new cases. Ever since the liberal 1960s, we have managed to gradually erode discipline out of UK society and instead bred generations of the ever more self-important "I know my rights" brigade. Maybe it's just age, but it strikes me people are now more selfish than ever before. NOTHING short of martial law will stop today's youngsters congregating where alcohol is being served. Unless THEY were afflicted by the virus, of course... then just watch the 'me me me' instinct take over. I don't agree that today's youngsters are any worse. There are idiots in every generation (Stanley Johnson, anyone?) and stories abound of the elderly "such and such an event didn't stop me going out, and this won't either..." Likewise, there are (thankfully many more) people of all ages who are doing inspirational things, community initiatives etc. Or at least, playing ball with the hard times we face. edit: I would however concede that there are almost certainly more younger than older people doing riskier things at present. But, again, the young do that in every generation. That's what they do!
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Post by dan1 on Mar 19, 2020 12:47:54 GMT
Consequence of government not shutting pubs and not extending self-isolation to all age groups is illustrated here in the Metro, huge crowds in pubs. Contrast that with the BBC reporting China (lockdown affecting all ages) reports no new cases. Ever since the liberal 1960s, we have managed to gradually erode discipline out of UK society and instead bred generations of the ever more self-important "I know my rights" brigade. Maybe it's just age, but it strikes me people are now more selfish than ever before. NOTHING short of martial law will stop today's youngsters congregating where alcohol is being served. Unless THEY were afflicted by the virus, of course... then just watch the 'me me me' instinct take over. I don't agree with you but I will resist the opportunity to fire counter-examples at you because it's not constructive. However, I do wonder how we're ever going to heal the inter-generational differences that have come under the spotlight recently because of stuff like the housing crisis, Brexit and now this virus. I have a great deal of respect (and envy) for those countries with stronger familial ties such as Spain, Italy, Greece etc. We've drifted so far down the economic route but at the expense of society and mental health that I can't see any way back. I'm talking generalisations, of course.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 19, 2020 12:48:42 GMT
Just to remind people: The models based on Spanish flu do suggest that if you're too effective in suppressing the first wave, you end up with even more people infected overall as the second wave hits you harder. It isn't as blindingly obvious as everyone seems to make out when screaming for more and more restrictions faster and faster. There are some super experts trying to balance everything here, and I think Dunning-Kruger is likely to apply to most people commenting on this (myself included). Blue is the optimal on the models, not green (no controls) or red (too many controls). When this is all over in two years, we'll have more data I hope for next time around. (and that's just infection rates - there are massive social and health costs both of the lock downs themselves, and of the economic consequences, that have to be considered in the overall balance) Anyway - just preparing for 15 days of awfulness in London, followed by several months more, and several months after that (in between selling what P2P I still can!) But didn't the experience of St Louis locking down, while Philadelphia didn't, demonstrate that lockdown worked and lives were saved overall? qz.com/1816060/a-chart-of-the-1918-spanish-flu-shows-why-social-distancing-works/No one is saying don't do social distancing - that's key, and all about "flattening the curve" (which the Philly/StL compariosn is textbook example of). It's the total lockdown/suppression that MIGHT be counterproductive if done too soon, too radically. I emphasise that we just don't know, but my problem is with those screaming and criticising the UK experts for not advising lockdown earlier as if they know better (hence Dunning-Kruger). Furthermore, as Prof Whitty said earlier, there are “significant health and social downsides” to the social distancing measures, and "If you do them too early you get all the negatives but almost an immeasurable impact on the epidemic". But why listen to experts making balanced judgements, right?
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Post by dan1 on Mar 19, 2020 12:57:47 GMT
No one is saying don't do social distancing - that's key, and all about "flattening the curve" (which the Philly/StL compariosn is textbook example of). It's the total lockdown/suppression that MIGHT be counterproductive if done too soon, too radically. I emphasise that we just don't know, but my problem is with those screaming and criticising the UK experts for not advising lockdown earlier as if they know better (hence Dunning-Kruger). Furthermore, as Prof Whitty said earlier, there are “significant health and social downsides” to the social distancing measures, and "If you do them too early you get all the negatives but almost an immeasurable impact on the epidemic". But why listen to experts making balanced judgements, right?You're sounding like a textbook case of Dunning-Kruger  Not unreasonably, what people are arguing for is to follow the WHO guidelines. Why are we not doing so? Personally, I trust the experts at WHO more than I would the experts who flank a pathological liar (and that's just what his own party say of him). Remember, we will do everything that we can to protect the... economy.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Mar 19, 2020 13:04:06 GMT
You're sounding like a textbook case of Dunning-Kruger Not unreasonably, what people are arguing for is to follow the WHO guidelines. Why are we not doing so? Personally, I trust the experts at WHO more than I would the experts who flank a pathological liar (and that's just what his own party say of him). Remember, we will do everything that we can to protect the... economy. Sorry to be a bit thick here, but are you talking about Boris or Donald
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Mar 19, 2020 13:23:54 GMT
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Stonk
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Post by Stonk on Mar 19, 2020 13:28:48 GMT
You're sounding like a textbook case of Dunning-Kruger Not unreasonably, what people are arguing for is to follow the WHO guidelines. Why are we not doing so? Personally, I trust the experts at WHO more than I would the experts who flank a pathological liar (and that's just what his own party say of him). Remember, we will do everything that we can to protect the... economy. Sorry to be a bit thick here, but are you talking about Boris or Donald
It must be Boris. Few would doubt his two current wingmen are experts.
Donald Trump, although a pathological liar, is surrounded by other pathological liars. Mainly because if anyone surrounding him shows a shred of honesty or decency, they get fired.
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