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Post by dan1 on Oct 31, 2020 10:01:33 GMT
No. I didn't suggest the ons stats are rubbish. I meant the BBC vindicating Whittys projection based upon further estimates. Most people assume infections are the actual number recorded and published not what they might be if everyone was tested. Most people believe infections are those infected with the virus whether or not a test has confirmed it or not. What you're talking about are cases not infections.
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 31, 2020 10:18:58 GMT
No. I didn't suggest the ons stats are rubbish. I meant the BBC vindicating Whittys projection based upon further estimates. Most people assume infections are the actual number recorded and published not what they might be if everyone was tested. Most people believe infections are those infected with the virus whether or not a test has confirmed it or not. What you're talking about are cases not infections. Estimates are 80-90% asymptomatic. "You cannot get a free NHS test unless you have symptoms"www.gov.uk/get-coronavirus-testSo if there's 24,500 people testing positive per day... coronavirus.data.gov.uk/casesNo, it's not going to be as easy as 5-10x that, because there are a sizable people who are routinely tested, whether symptomatic or not. Equally, 350k tests yesterday does not mean 350k symptomatic people rocking up, and only 24,500 of them testing positive. 1 test does not equal 1 person. People may get multiple tests. I mentioned previously the experience of friends of ours... An anecdote: Friends of ours run a B&B. Their daughter lives with them, and works in a residential care environment. A few weeks ago, a colleague of hers had symptoms, got a test on the Weds, felt better by Friday so went into work then to the pub with colleagues afterwards. On the Saturday, the test result came in. You can guess which it was. How easy do you think it was for our friends and their daughter to get a test? The daughter - dead easy. She was tested on the very next day, the Sunday, because she works in a care environment. You can guess what the result was. She remained asymptomatic. So that leaves our friends... They could not get a test at all. Because they were asymptomatic. Even though they were living with somebody who had tested positive... And, of course, estimates are about 80% of infections are asymptomatic - but still infectious... Fortunately, they have their heads screwed on right. They put the shutters up, and cancelled their bookings for three weeks. They spent the thick end of a grand on getting the B&B professionally deep-cleaned before re-opening. The daughter is tested every week, routinely, along with every single one of her colleagues. I believe there are two tests taken per "weekly test" - nose and throat. Seven people were infected by that one thoughtless colleague. All were asymptomatic, except for the original. That's 16 tests per week of people who have recently recovered, and are therefore almost certainly immune (albeit for the short- or long-term is still unknown). In other news, two sets of friends got phone calls the other day to say the MOTs they'd got booked was cancelled, because two of the mechanics working there had had symptoms, tested positive, so they were closing. One of those friends had had their other car tested there a day or two earlier. That never got mentioned in the call, and they've not heard a sausage from T'n'T.
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Post by dan1 on Oct 31, 2020 10:36:31 GMT
agent69 - saw this and thought of you.... From Kuenssberg (a govt parrot IMO!). "SW & Midlands are first to run out of capacity even though very different levels of prevalence"
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Post by dan1 on Oct 31, 2020 15:22:34 GMT
1st wave: - France locked down on 17 March, UK on 23rd March 2nd wave: - France locked down on 28 October, England on 4th November (?) 6 days later in both cases
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Oct 31, 2020 15:27:02 GMT
Well, someone doesn’t like to lead. 🤦♂️
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 31, 2020 18:25:21 GMT
'ere we go 'ere we go 'ere we go (again) are we down hearted? Not really. It's going about as expected. Here on the Welsh border, we're waiting to see the local Tory MP for a Welsh constituency do a shameless 180deg from last week's slagging-off of Drakeford's two-week lockdown to sycophantic support for Johnson's month. So all the Welsh people who have been trying to sneak into England for a pint will shortly be complaining bitterly that the English are sneaking into Wales?
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 31, 2020 18:32:37 GMT
Not really. It's going about as expected. Here on the Welsh border, we're waiting to see the local Tory MP for a Welsh constituency do a shameless 180deg from last week's slagging-off of Drakeford's two-week lockdown to sycophantic support for Johnson's month. So all the Welsh people who have been trying to sneak into England for a pint will shortly be complaining bitterly that the English are sneaking into Wales? Not many trying to sneak over the border round here. All the good pubs are in town, in Wales. (and they've been complaining about the English since March! Well, even more than normal)
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 31, 2020 18:37:39 GMT
1st wave: - France locked down on 17 March, UK on 23rd March 2nd wave: - France locked down on 28 October, England on 4th November (?) 6 days later in both cases Bloody typical. The start of the new lockdown corresponds with the start of an unseasonally good period of golfing weather. Still, at least I should be able to get my round in on Monday without incident.
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Post by bernythedolt on Oct 31, 2020 19:02:40 GMT
Not really. It's going about as expected. Here on the Welsh border, we're waiting to see the local Tory MP for a Welsh constituency do a shameless 180deg from last week's slagging-off of Drakeford's two-week lockdown to sycophantic support for Johnson's month. So all the Welsh people who have been trying to sneak into England for a pint will shortly be complaining bitterly that the English are sneaking into Wales? Maybe lightly or mildly, but perhaps not hopping mad at yeast.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 31, 2020 19:45:40 GMT
Was it just me, or were there lots of charts showing what will happen without intervention, but none showing what the impact of the proposed measures will be?
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on Oct 31, 2020 19:48:53 GMT
🤦♂️ Pubs can stay opened for ”takeaway”, won't affect those revellers on street.Is this a lockdown to increase the R and damage the economy at the same time I wonder? Nothing like a targeted approach to curb the spread of infection I've never understood why the takeaway sale of alcohol (supermarkets, off licences nd the like) wasn't banned a long time ago.
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mrk
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Post by mrk on Oct 31, 2020 20:15:02 GMT
Let's just hope they get this "rapid turnaround testing" system actually working this time, otherwise I suspect this won't even be the last lockdown. Spring isn't exactly around the corner.
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Post by bernythedolt on Oct 31, 2020 20:26:47 GMT
1st wave: - France locked down on 17 March, UK on 23rd March 2nd wave: - France locked down on 28 October, England on 4th November (?) 6 days later in both cases Bloody typical. The start of the new lockdown corresponds with the start of an unseasonally good period of golfing weather. Still, at least I should be able to get my round in on Monday without incident.
Or for 'real' music I defy anybody to watch these virtuosos and not feel uplifted afterwards... www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQIJuu3N5EY
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adrianc
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Post by adrianc on Oct 31, 2020 20:29:55 GMT
I've never understood why the takeaway sale of alcohol (supermarkets, off licences nd the like) wasn't banned a long time ago. Just so's I'm sure I didn't misunderstand... Can you clarify what extra covid risk a bottle of Chilean Cab Sauv from the supermarket (either in the flesh or delivered) poses over, say, a loaf of white sliced? Or are you meaning more generally? Because, afaict, prohibition didn't work terribly well last time.
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Oct 31, 2020 20:51:01 GMT
I have to conclude that they've done this now (and delayed it until now), to try to ensure that people can spend Christmas with their families. Which would be admirable were it not solely for their own political benefit.
Can you imagine the headlines? "Tories cancel Christmas" would be the least of it.
Call me a cynic {shrug}.
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