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Post by gravitykillz on Apr 5, 2020 18:34:21 GMT
Just included 2500 Vodafone shares at 70p. This may bring a little excitement to my working week. Wonder which will hit first Or if any will. More or less it is like placing a bet before a football game to add excitement when you stay at home to watch it with pizza and beer. ''Time to dump p2p and buy equities ?'' It all comes down to figures. In the end, equities will pay far more that any P2P business. But the question is when to buy. And here is the big dilemma f stock markets, ''Too early or too late?'' If you have some experience in the stock markets and if you understand well macroeconomics, you will be able to enter the market at a lucrative point. For now, I believe we have a long way south from here, and there is no need to dedicate funds in equities, yet. Totally agree. Cancelled all pending orders and put the money in vanguard instead. 2k in vwrl 1k in s and p 500 See how that fares before putting more in.
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Post by Ace on Apr 5, 2020 18:42:16 GMT
More or less it is like placing a bet before a football game to add excitement when you stay at home to watch it with pizza and beer. ''Time to dump p2p and buy equities ?'' It all comes down to figures. In the end, equities will pay far more that any P2P business. But the question is when to buy. And here is the big dilemma f stock markets, ''Too early or too late?'' If you have some experience in the stock markets and if you understand well macroeconomics, you will be able to enter the market at a lucrative point. For now, I believe we have a long way south from here, and there is no need to dedicate funds in equities, yet. Totally agree. Cancelled all pending orders and put the money in vanguard instead. 2k in vwrl 1k in s and p 500 See how that fares before putting more in. I don't really get your thinking. You appear to be cancelling some specific orders for shares at prices you presumably consider to be good value, and instead, your buying trackers at a point when you've just agreed the market's will go "a long way south from here".
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Post by gravitykillz on Apr 5, 2020 18:45:02 GMT
I was bored.
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Post by gravitykillz on Apr 5, 2020 18:45:40 GMT
Getting lots of conflicting data.
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Post by arbi on Apr 7, 2020 10:17:31 GMT
Getting lots of conflicting data. That is true. Markets keep going up when all info and data is gloomy. I m based on technical analysis for my trading activities and for now there is no clear sign saying up or down.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Apr 7, 2020 10:46:26 GMT
The FTSE's graph looks very different to the S&P 500, with minimal upwards movement over the past 20 years, does anyone know the underlying reasons for such varied performances? The S&P 500 index is total return, the FTSE 100 isn't so there have been dividends of 3%-5% every year to add on to the FTSE100. SP500 is not total return.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Apr 7, 2020 10:49:10 GMT
That is true. Markets keep going up when all info and data is gloomy. I m based on technical analysis for my trading activities and for now there is no clear sign saying up or down. Equities are not well suited to technical analysis. Sure you might get something out of it if you're short-term volatility trading. But mid to long-term you'll need to factor in fundamental aspects. The most important fundamental being that the (global) markets always go up (in the very long term)
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pip
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Post by pip on Apr 7, 2020 11:01:00 GMT
In my opinion the price of many stocks is now way way overvalued. Nasdaq 100, is now over 8000, that means it is UP, yes up over 5% in the last 12 months.
The stock market has rallied as the number of COVID-19 cases thankfully starts to peak. But imho the market is due for another correction sharply lower. The reality is that the decline is cases is not a marker for the restrictions to be lifted but is a marker that the restrictions are working and should remain in place. Lift the restrictions and the cases go vertically up again.
I still don't think the market has priced in the short to medium term pain of COVID-19 on companies balance sheets, consumer sentiment and government policy. I feel that all 3 will be impacted long term and not in a good way for companies.
I know people are going to say that rates have never been lower, the central banks will pump money out and stocks are for the long term outlook not short. I get all that, still I feel that the market has recovered too much, especially US tech stocks which were very generously priced before all this kicked off. For me it's a short Nasdaq time, I will though buy in solid UK companies which pay dividends, but only after the stock market kicks lower again by a good 20%.
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jonno
Member of DD Central
nil satis nisi optimum
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Post by jonno on Apr 7, 2020 11:18:59 GMT
In my opinion the price of many stocks is now way way overvalued. Nasdaq 100, is now over 8000, that means it is UP, yes up over 5% in the last 12 months. The stock market has rallied as the number of COVID-19 cases thankfully starts to peak. But imho the market is due for another correction sharply lower. The reality is that the decline is cases is not a marker for the restrictions to be lifted but is a marker that the restrictions are working and should remain in place. Lift the restrictions and the cases go vertically up again. I still don't think the market has priced in the short to medium term pain of COVID-19 on companies balance sheets, consumer sentiment and government policy. I feel that all 3 will be impacted long term and not in a good way for companies. I know people are going to say that rates have never been lower, the central banks will pump money out and stocks are for the long term outlook not short. I get all that, still I feel that the market has recovered too much, especially US tech stocks which were very generously priced before all this kicked off. For me it's a short Nasdaq time, I will though buy in solid UK companies which pay dividends, but only after the stock market kicks lower again by a good 20%. Good to see you've not lost any of your crazy optimism
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2020 11:29:39 GMT
That is true. Markets keep going up when all info and data is gloomy. I m based on technical analysis for my trading activities and for now there is no clear sign saying up or down. Equities are not well suited to technical analysis. Sure you might get something out of it if you're short-term volatility trading. But mid to long-term you'll need to factor in fundamental aspects. wall, I normally agree with you but maybe I hould mention that there are just a few shares/funds that fall nicely into very simple technical analysis, though not the usual BS of "bended elbow" and "shooting star", if you use focus on these you can track back and identify the driving fundemental aspects. From that it is perfectly possible to get a view of the future. But use these tools together not as just one.
Technical analysis of the last few weeks, yikes!
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pip
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Post by pip on Apr 7, 2020 11:35:43 GMT
In my opinion the price of many stocks is now way way overvalued. Nasdaq 100, is now over 8000, that means it is UP, yes up over 5% in the last 12 months. The stock market has rallied as the number of COVID-19 cases thankfully starts to peak. But imho the market is due for another correction sharply lower. The reality is that the decline is cases is not a marker for the restrictions to be lifted but is a marker that the restrictions are working and should remain in place. Lift the restrictions and the cases go vertically up again. I still don't think the market has priced in the short to medium term pain of COVID-19 on companies balance sheets, consumer sentiment and government policy. I feel that all 3 will be impacted long term and not in a good way for companies. I know people are going to say that rates have never been lower, the central banks will pump money out and stocks are for the long term outlook not short. I get all that, still I feel that the market has recovered too much, especially US tech stocks which were very generously priced before all this kicked off. For me it's a short Nasdaq time, I will though buy in solid UK companies which pay dividends, but only after the stock market kicks lower again by a good 20%. Good to see you've not lost any of your crazy optimism I have to admit that I have been quite shaken by the increasing health concern of the PM. While obviously on a personal note I wish him well, it's also a timely reminder for us all. This virus is dangerous and it won't be 'mild' for everybody. It seems that if symptoms persist for 7 days or more then it is very serious. What this illustrates to me is that a strategy of 'let's lift the restrictions and hope for the best' is not an option, certainly not an option I would go for. In fact I think even if you did lift the restrictions many people would still not go about their normal lives in fear of contracting this awful and dangerous virus. Therefore the only options available to the government are: wait it out until a vaccine comes along or, what I think they will probably do is, wait until cases are at a low level and then reduce restrictions to a level which keeps the transmission level at or around 1 (i.e. you get on average one new case for every existing case). The trouble is that to get the transmission level around 1, restrictions will need to be severe. The fact that the cases in countries with full lockdowns have reduced shows that the transmission levels are well below 1, so hopefully the restrictions can be eased a little but still I think they will be severe. If I had to guess I predict that normal life wont return until at least the end of this year, but I do think that shops will be able to open at some point. I doubt however that other places where people congregate will be able to open and places such as pubs, nightclubs, even cinemas could see impact right up until a virus is found, whether due to government restrictions or consumer choice.
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pip
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Post by pip on Apr 7, 2020 11:45:27 GMT
In my opinion the price of many stocks is now way way overvalued. Nasdaq 100, is now over 8000, that means it is UP, yes up over 5% in the last 12 months. The stock market has rallied as the number of COVID-19 cases thankfully starts to peak. But imho the market is due for another correction sharply lower. The reality is that the decline is cases is not a marker for the restrictions to be lifted but is a marker that the restrictions are working and should remain in place. Lift the restrictions and the cases go vertically up again. I still don't think the market has priced in the short to medium term pain of COVID-19 on companies balance sheets, consumer sentiment and government policy. I feel that all 3 will be impacted long term and not in a good way for companies. I know people are going to say that rates have never been lower, the central banks will pump money out and stocks are for the long term outlook not short. I get all that, still I feel that the market has recovered too much, especially US tech stocks which were very generously priced before all this kicked off. For me it's a short Nasdaq time, I will though buy in solid UK companies which pay dividends, but only after the stock market kicks lower again by a good 20%. I think "way way overvalued" is a bit of an exaggeration. The time for saying that was before the broad sell-off. Also, you mention NASDAQ, but when was the last time you did an attribution analysis on something like NASDAQ or S&P 500 ? Don't come on here saying "way way overvalued" and then base your statement on the lemmings end of the US markets. I must also remind you that "the market" is a broad-brush statement, for example the attitude of panic-stricken XO investors will be substantially different to those managing corporate pension funds. I can assure you that the sensible side of the market is very much aware of the "short to medium term pain" and the potential for long term impact. I've been reading notes and listening to conference calls, and trust me, there's nobody out there who is not aware of what's going on by now ! However the sensible side of the market is doing its analysis accordingly, and that's my point about technical analysis, the present time really does require a fundamental aspect. Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to paint a mega-bull picture here. However at the same time, attempting to time the markets is a dumb occupation. You would probably fail to spot the bottom if it was highlighted in bright red on a chart, so if your appetite for risk is suitable then why not take advantage of some of the discounts available out there and forget about waiting for the bottom. Actually I would disagree with that. I think the market is more overvalued now than it was in January. In January the US and UK economies were in good shape with not too many headwinds expected. Both have just been hit by the mother of all tornado's out the blue. I get what you say that the 'market' is a broad term and I think some UK stocks are much more competitively priced than especially US stocks. For me I now mainly trade in ETF's, didn't for a while but now a huge, huge fan. I this morning took a leveraged 3x short of Nasdaq so maybe that is why I focus on that Index as it is the one I eye for the biggest crash. Let's see, the markets are at the moment totally crazy, never ever seen volatility like it. Just feel that a short on the nasdaq is the right call at present.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Apr 7, 2020 12:06:30 GMT
In my opinion the price of many stocks is now way way overvalued. Nasdaq 100, is now over 8000, that means it is UP, yes up over 5% in the last 12 months. The stock market has rallied as the number of COVID-19 cases thankfully starts to peak. But imho the market is due for another correction sharply lower. The reality is that the decline is cases is not a marker for the restrictions to be lifted but is a marker that the restrictions are working and should remain in place. Lift the restrictions and the cases go vertically up again. I still don't think the market has priced in the short to medium term pain of COVID-19 on companies balance sheets, consumer sentiment and government policy. I feel that all 3 will be impacted long term and not in a good way for companies. I know people are going to say that rates have never been lower, the central banks will pump money out and stocks are for the long term outlook not short. I get all that, still I feel that the market has recovered too much, especially US tech stocks which were very generously priced before all this kicked off. For me it's a short Nasdaq time, I will though buy in solid UK companies which pay dividends, but only after the stock market kicks lower again by a good 20%. That’s how the market works. That’s your opinion, all the buyers have a different opinion. I prefer to take easy street and not have an opinion at all. How am I supposed to have more insight into market valuations than all the other investors out there.
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Apr 7, 2020 12:13:18 GMT
I think "way way overvalued" is a bit of an exaggeration. The time for saying that was before the broad sell-off. Also, you mention NASDAQ, but when was the last time you did an attribution analysis on something like NASDAQ or S&P 500 ? Don't come on here saying "way way overvalued" and then base your statement on the lemmings end of the US markets. I must also remind you that "the market" is a broad-brush statement, for example the attitude of panic-stricken XO investors will be substantially different to those managing corporate pension funds. I can assure you that the sensible side of the market is very much aware of the "short to medium term pain" and the potential for long term impact. I've been reading notes and listening to conference calls, and trust me, there's nobody out there who is not aware of what's going on by now ! However the sensible side of the market is doing its analysis accordingly, and that's my point about technical analysis, the present time really does require a fundamental aspect. Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to paint a mega-bull picture here. However at the same time, attempting to time the markets is a dumb occupation. You would probably fail to spot the bottom if it was highlighted in bright red on a chart, so if your appetite for risk is suitable then why not take advantage of some of the discounts available out there and forget about waiting for the bottom. Actually I would disagree with that. I think the market is more overvalued now than it was in January. In January the US and UK economies were in good shape with not too many headwinds expected. Both have just been hit by the mother of all tornado's out the blue. I get what you say that the 'market' is a broad term and I think some UK stocks are much more competitively priced than especially US stocks. For me I now mainly trade in ETF's, didn't for a while but now a huge, huge fan. I this morning took a leveraged 3x short of Nasdaq so maybe that is why I focus on that Index as it is the one I eye for the biggest crash. Let's see, the markets are at the moment totally crazy, never ever seen volatility like it. Just feel that a short on the nasdaq is the right call at present. 3 x leveraged short is a highly speculative day trade tool. I hope you fully understand what you are doing. If not, I suggest you unwind your position immediately.
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pip
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Post by pip on Apr 7, 2020 14:31:03 GMT
I this morning took a leveraged 3x short of Nasdaq Oh for f**k's sake. That's all I've got to say (and that's biting my tongue and being polite). No further comment. OK, OK guys calm down. I have sold out now for a 3% profit. I do understand leveraged ETF's, the impact of daily re balancing, the long term decay of volatility etc. They are also just so damn volatile, especially at the moment, that they will give you a heart attack. But you are totally right really, these products are a punt and not one to do regularly or probably really at all. I will wait calmly on the sidelines now. Thanks.
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