hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Mar 1, 2020 9:33:01 GMT
It’s not a competition. I do advise people to invest for the long term rather than speculate though. Whilst in many ways I admire your strategy and I'm sure it suits your circumstances, don't forget that many of us can no longer afford to adopt a 30 year strategy. I retired early on a decent pension and have gradually switched my strategy towards income rather than growth and while I've achieved decent capital appreciation over the last 5 or so years I have also generated enough income to maintain the same lifestyle as when I worked ( I was Chief Executive of a public body with a turnover of £1 billion). I sold around 25% of my holdings last week, taking profits where they were (still?) available, but am intending to go back in at some point, but with a slant towards income opportunities rather than pure growth. I wish you well. I only invest in 2 index trackers (all world equities and all world bonds) . If I was closer to retirement, I would increase my allocation to bonds and then maintain that allocation through this downturn. Everybody has to do what is right for their specific situation. I also am in a DB pension scheme, so I am happy taking a lot of risk otherwise
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Post by Undecided on Mar 1, 2020 9:38:56 GMT
I've made a good living as an equity trader in the past 10 years. I doubt very much that BP or indeed Shell has or will appear on my buy list. Too many doubts about fossil fuels to take them seriously. With you being a professional trader can I ask what your investment strategy was before Corona and now?
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 1, 2020 9:45:45 GMT
Most experts expect a further drop on Monday. Given that, it is more rational to wait a day rather than buy cheap looking goodies right away. One could do it in several pieces, too, if one fears to miss a sudden rise. Takes some stress out. Aren't markets closed on the weekend anyway? Btw, who's saying there'll be a further drop out of interest? I notice that the DOW actually rose 2.6% right at the end of the US trading day (after ours had closed of course) so, all else being equal (which it isn't ), I had half expected shares to be up tomorrow morning. edit: other interesting thing - if we look at VWRD which is Vanguard world denominated in US dollars (so, strips out our pound volatility influencing things), at 83.98 dollars we last saw this type of "horrifying" low on.....8th October 2019! That's really not very long ago, is it.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2020 10:08:33 GMT
I've made a good living as an equity trader in the past 10 years. I doubt very much that BP or indeed Shell has or will appear on my buy list. Too many doubts about fossil fuels to take them seriously. With you being a professional trader can I ask what your investment strategy was before Corona and now? Before and now, no difference
I generally view the following
1) when all boats drop the tide just went out. 2) If the tide went out was it catastrophic or merely passing? 3) my conclusion is that it is merely passing and in a year we will be just talking about "the virus" and in five we will have forgotten it ever happened. Rather like 2007 and 2017 we always forget what caused it and what we did. Question: what did cause the drop in 2017?
4) if it was catastrophic then I would have sold 5) Most of my assets are defensive. So lots of toothpaste and wind power in the main (the virus will not stop people cleaning their teeth). Where I do invest out of these areas it is with the most consistently successful funds around the world (not the fastest growing, the most consistent).
6) I will now monitor my assets over the coming 6 weeks or so to see which ones are most resilient. I'm especially interested in bounce back. Those that bounce back quickly will become my re-investor group
7) I normally run 10-20% cash uninvested 8) I manage each asset within statistically controlled limits and as they drive through the tops of these I partially reduce holdings in preparation for these drops. 9) while for tax purposes I recognise the difference between income and capital growth, in reality I see no difference.
hope that helps
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Post by Undecided on Mar 1, 2020 10:18:59 GMT
Thanks very much. Do you invest in p2p as well and would you mind giving your opinion on p2p?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 1, 2020 10:30:03 GMT
No I'm on drawdown with P2P. The market is too unsophisticated to operate especially with net interest from the banks at close to 0%.
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corto
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one-syllabistic
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Post by corto on Mar 1, 2020 11:02:36 GMT
Most experts expect a further drop on Monday. Given that, it is more rational to wait a day rather than buy cheap looking goodies right away. One could do it in several pieces, too, if one fears to miss a sudden rise. Takes some stress out. Aren't markets closed on the weekend anyway? Btw, who's saying there'll be a further drop out of interest? I notice that the DOW actually rose 2.6% right at the end of the US trading day (after ours had closed of course) so, all else being equal (which it isn't ), I had half expected shares to be up tomorrow morning. edit: other interesting thing - if we look at VWRD which is Vanguard world denominated in US dollars (so, strips out our pound volatility influencing things), at 83.98 dollars we last saw this type of "horrifying" low on.....8th October 2019! That's really not very long ago, is it. - Aren't markets closed on the weekend anyway? Sure. Read "a day" as "a working day". What is meant is that if chances are high that it goes up it makes sense to buy now, otherwise don't waste the expected loss and wait a bit. (You can of course also ignore short-term trends completely and do long term investing, or mix both strategies). - who's saying there'll be a further drop out of interest? Various News outlets. Of course, it's not a certainty. However, the Americans are just now realising that they let the virus in and what that implies has not been priced in (look at China; Hancock just this hour said shutting down cities in the UK may become necessary). Globally, it has become more likely that there will be a full epidemic and that hasn't sunk in either. - we last saw this type of "horrifying" low on.....8th October 2019! That's really not very long ago, is it. If you look closer you'll see that the slope is much faster now compared to Oct 2019. It's safer to assume it's a different sort of process. You could check how Japan and Australia do Sunday night (around 1am at Morningstar) to get an idea what's perhaps coming into our direction for the day. Don't panic!
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 1, 2020 12:06:30 GMT
Aren't markets closed on the weekend anyway? Btw, who's saying there'll be a further drop out of interest? I notice that the DOW actually rose 2.6% right at the end of the US trading day (after ours had closed of course) so, all else being equal (which it isn't ), I had half expected shares to be up tomorrow morning. edit: other interesting thing - if we look at VWRD which is Vanguard world denominated in US dollars (so, strips out our pound volatility influencing things), at 83.98 dollars we last saw this type of "horrifying" low on.....8th October 2019! That's really not very long ago, is it. - Aren't markets closed on the weekend anyway? Sure. Read "a day" as "a working day". What is meant is that if chances are high that it goes up it makes sense to buy now, otherwise don't waste the expected loss and wait a bit. (You can of course also ignore short-term trends completely and do long term investing, or mix both strategies). - who's saying there'll be a further drop out of interest? Various News outlets. Of course, it's not a certainty. However, the Americans are just now realising that they let the virus in and what that implies has not been priced in (look at China; Hancock just this hour said shutting down cities in the UK may become necessary). Globally, it has become more likely that there will be a full epidemic and that hasn't sunk in either. - we last saw this type of "horrifying" low on.....8th October 2019! That's really not very long ago, is it. If you look closer you'll see that the slope is much faster now compared to Oct 2019. It's safer to assume it's a different sort of process. You could check how Japan and Australia do Sunday night (around 1am at Morningstar) to get an idea what's perhaps coming into our direction for the day. Don't panic! No panic here at all..like hazel, my only real consideration is whether to buy more, but I won't worry if it keeps on dropping. It could be a different sort of process, but (as always) no-one knows. It's easy to predict doom, yet who here on Christmas Eve 2018 would have said "comfy 25% gain on the Dow this year I reckon" if prompted? I know I wouldn't! That's the usual passive dogma out of the way (and it is totally the way I roll), but aside from that - yeah, I'd imagine they have further to fall too, although at this stage I wouldn't think it'll be anything massively substantial. Re: "Hancock just this hour", has to be done..
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Godanubis
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Anubis is known as the god of death and is the oldest and most popular of ancient Egyptian deities.
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Post by Godanubis on Mar 1, 2020 13:11:30 GMT
Better have numerous places for your cash the risks are spread. The trouble with long term is that if you require the funds at a particular time like say now. Overall there will be a rise but there will also be dips.
Proper valuations and low LTV in property P2P is reasonable risk as is investing in a company were NAV outweighs commitments.
Scottish property BTL investment will always make 10-30% as good cheap property can be purchased and rents are good. There is however some effort required for big returns or moderate returns by handing the whole process over to a purchase/improve/ management company.
With companies dropping 20-30% last week there is certainly a buying opportunity in buying companies with solid asset base.
Lots of automatic stop losses will have kicked in catching this atypical fall.
With a third of the world being infected in 1918 with Spanish flu when travel much more difficult and flu less infectious than Coronavirus I suspect it will be a while before thing get anywhere near normal.
Flu tends to reduce in the summer months they say there is little or no slowdown in tropical Singapore so this may not be the solution everyone hopes for.
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corto
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Post by corto on Mar 1, 2020 13:30:55 GMT
Nothing wrong with the passive way. Most of my stuff is passive, too. Just betting on an opportunity. Hmm .. that phrase should make me think .. Not long ago I also thought, p2p would be an opportunity.. to get back to the title of the thread Not selling p2p to put into equities now; the new tax year may see some adaptations though
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foolsgold
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Post by foolsgold on Mar 1, 2020 19:06:32 GMT
Problem is many investors follow trends and fail to lift their heads and look at the micro data.
TV station like Bloomberg are good for info.
This time last week what I seen was that the price of hard drives had risen by 25 percent ...WHY..?....because most are made in Wuhan China
Look at the local news reports in China particularly Wuhan...where are the masses ?.....the streets are empty....the subway is empty....no people walking about.
Italy was hit and the authorities are closing towns.
I made the decision to exit the vast majority of my exposure to shares (Investment trusts not Unit Trusts as I dont have any) at 8am monday morning and by late monday morning the start of carnage on the market.
Many investors are ignoring the news at hand and use common sense.
This virus is going global....80 percent of the UK population is going to catch the bug and all the implications for factory production.The global stock market is going to be turbulent but over the long term we will look on this as a great buying opportunity...personally I think that buying opportunities are ahead but not now...I think the market is going down for the short term and where it stops is a guess...perhaps another 20 percent from current rates.
Dont just follow the herd but look at whats going on in the world and as someone once said
The night is darkest right before the dawn.
Long term view is good....short term trading is risky if you want to buy and sell within a few days/weeks.
Any buyer in todays market should hold long term and they should do well in 5 years....Provided we are here to see it
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Post by mrclondon on Mar 1, 2020 21:43:57 GMT
Several posts have mentioned weekend trading, or lack thereof. Futures markets reopen around 10-11pm UK time on a Sunday evening, which I assume co-incides with NZ/AUS markets opening.
However, many spread betting firms offer weekend markets which are quasi-futures. I took this screen grab a short time ago (21:35) from www.ig.com/uk/welcome-page which shows an expectation that the futures markets will open down ("gap") rather over 2% when trade resumes in the next couple of hours. (They will then obviously adjust based on actual performance of the Far East markets overnight) After 11pm that link to IG should start to display market data based on the real futures market.
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jj
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Jolly Jammy
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Post by jj on Mar 1, 2020 22:09:45 GMT
Several posts have mentioned weekend trading, or lack thereof. Futures markets reopen around 10-11pm UK time on a Sunday evening, which I assume co-incides with NZ/AUS markets opening.
However, many spread betting firms offer weekend markets which are quasi-futures. I took this screen grab a short time ago (21:35) from www.ig.com/uk/welcome-page which shows an expectation that the futures markets will open down ("gap") rather over 2% when trade resumes in the next couple of hours. (They will then obviously adjust based on actual performance of the Far East markets overnight) After 11pm that link to IG should start to display market data based on the real futures market.
An obvious overspill from the American market. A new trading day only starts for real when New York opens.
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Post by mrclondon on Mar 1, 2020 23:14:01 GMT
And as fortold by the Weekend markets, the futures markets have gapped down, albeit only by around 1.5% (I think this is because futures closed up 0.5%+ beyond the actual market close on Friday). This is DJIA neatly illustrating the weekend gap ... the current pricing broadly inline with that predicted by the weekend market at just over 25000
Incidentlly the 3 trend lines are exponential moving averages over 3 different time periods.
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james100
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Post by james100 on Mar 2, 2020 7:31:51 GMT
Looks to be quite a good day ahead although that could change at any time.
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