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Post by jaycee on May 7, 2020 23:14:32 GMT
You haven’t explained at all why you think raising rates would be mad? I’ll try an attempted humorous analogy scenario: Consider RS as a retailer of unobtainium jewellery, profits based on a % of sales volume. The largest unobtainium mine in the world recently flooded, and other mines have much larger production costs. If the wholesalers continue supplying at the previously agreed wholesale price, they would go out of business. Wholesalers request a price increase and stop shipping until a new wholesale price is agreed. The retailer doesn’t want to reduce sales margin, due to fixed costs and the marginal profitability of the business. They aren’t keen on raising the retail price, because this will cause their sales volume and therefore revenue to drop. Although due to the massive upset in the world of unobtainium jewellery, they have no actual data on future sales volume at either old or new price. The retailer decides to insist on the previous wholesale price, without success. They now haven’t received any new stock in two months, without which they can’t close any sales at any price. They do have a trickle of sales on second-hand stock. They continue to pay rent on the shop, hoping that the unobtainium mine will re-open, to resume the business as before, although nobody else thinks it will. Do you think the shopkeeper is acting correctly? Are there alternative strategies that might improve the outcome? I have thought of four options. Trialing higher wholesale and retail price, to gather sales data, is my preferred. But the shopkeeper’s strategy ends in practice like this: “The shopkeeper hands back the shop lease to minimise fixed costs, and flogs the ex-display stock on eBay over the next five years. He maintains his margin on the stock and doesn’t make a loss, but it’s a hobby not a business” ... I'm sorry, what? Ratesetter's business model doesn't work when they are lending too cheaply relative to the risk we as lenders are prepared to take.
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Post by diversifier on May 8, 2020 10:09:07 GMT
I think it’s also interesting to analyse (and track) the monthly platform performance figures of sellout and lending. In the month of April, on £854m total assets, RS received £65.6m repayments from borrowers plus £5.2m on their behalf from the PF, total £70.8m. Investors sold out £23.3m = 33% of RS income, and re-lent £39.3m = 56% of RS income The figures don’t add up to 100%, as the remainder funds both RS operating margin and contributions to the PF. Perhaps it’s better to say that investors sold out 37% of their own income. They haven’t entirely switched off at that point. But they continued to sell request through April, and the notice of reduced interest is excluded from April. So it will be interesting to see what next month’s figures look like.
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Post by freefalljunkie on May 8, 2020 10:56:35 GMT
If RS can keep up the same level of liquidity in Access we'll move onto RYI from 13th March sometime the week commencing 01/06. Release requests from 16 March (the peak) are unlikely to be fully processed in 2020. Blimey is it really that bad? I have requests on the 16th, 17th and 20th. Does anyone think there is any prospect at all of the situation with Access/Plus/Max improving, or are we all now shafted until 2021?
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on May 8, 2020 11:00:46 GMT
If RS can keep up the same level of liquidity in Access we'll move onto RYI from 13th March sometime the week commencing 01/06. Release requests from 16 March (the peak) are unlikely to be fully processed in 2020. Blimey is it really that bad? I have requests on the 16th, 17th and 20th. Does anyone think there is any prospect at all of the situation with Access/Plus/Max improving, or are we all now shafted until 2021? We just don't know, I'm afraid. Any guesswork (including what you've quoted) is based on number of requests and not amount requested. The latter is what actually matters and we don't have this information. We also currently have very little idea how the liquidity situation might improve or worsen (or stay stable) in the coming weeks and months - this is the other vital part of the equation. Sorry
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Post by danny101 on May 8, 2020 11:38:07 GMT
Hi, I have RYI requests from the 13th in access plus and max and I was told 2 days who it would be at least another 3 months from now, maybe longer but they are still quoting "over 1 month from date of request" on there updates and FAQ section of there blog They should be honest with us and change this.
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sd2
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Post by sd2 on May 8, 2020 11:42:40 GMT
My access release was applied for on the 15th. The 5 year on the 27 March. For access they are upto the 12th but now they have cut interest in half I can't see where new lenders will come from?? Oh well on a average of 6.1 so I have nothing to moan about relative to others.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on May 8, 2020 11:52:22 GMT
We just don't know, I'm afraid. Any guesswork (including what you've quoted) is based on number of requests and not amount requested. The latter is what actually matters and we don't have this information. We also currently have very little idea how the liquidity situation might improve or worsen (or stay stable) in the coming weeks and months - this is the other vital part of the equation. Sorry I wouldn't say using a number of statistical data models is guesswork. Yes it's a poor quality dataset and we have to make some assumptions. It's quite likely the larger RYIs would be weighted towards the beginning of the dataset as those investors have more experience in the market. If RS can maintain similar levels of liquidity (which at the moment is mainly being achieved by the capital return of the loans of the 90% of investors who remain invested) then we may see the process speed up slightly. Statistical data models - sorry, it's hard not to laugh when as I type I'm revising for a quantitative methods exam. It's not a 'poor quality dataset' it's just not the correct data needed to be able to make this estimate. "It's quite likely the larger RYIs would be weighted towards the beginning of the dataset as those investors have more experience in the market." - This is literally guesswork. I'm probably one of the smallest investors on here and I'd venture to suggest I have some idea what I'm talking about. Maybe you disagree! We have already seen examples on this forum of people making wild accusations against RS because of an assumption that RYI requests will somehow 'average out' consistently and failing to understand how variable this can be (and has been shown to be in recent days). This illustrates how such assumptions are sometimes worse than useless - they're harmful. There are people on here who have RYI requests over 200x mine - and that's just the ones who've owned up. That gives you an idea of how useless requests numbers alone are. I've had to explain this so many times on this forum that I think I'll make this the last time.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on May 8, 2020 12:04:23 GMT
Statistical data models - sorry, it's hard not to laugh when as I type I'm revising for a quantitative methods exam. It's not a 'poor quality dataset' it's just not the correct data needed to be able to make this estimate. "It's quite likely the larger RYIs would be weighted towards the beginning of the dataset as those investors have more experience in the market." - This is literally guesswork. I'm probably one of the smallest investors on here and I'd venture to suggest I am some idea what I'm talking about. Maybe you disagree! We have already seen examples on this forum of people making wild accusations against RS because of an assumption that RYI requests will somehow 'average out' consistently and failing to understand how variable this can be (and has been shown to be in recent days). There are people on here who have RYI requests over 200x mine - and that's just the ones who've owned up. That gives you an idea of how useless requests numbers alone are. I've had to explain this so many times on this forum that I think I'll make this the last time. Maybe you should keep your opinions to yourself rather than make assumptions of who people are and stop looking down on everyone chris1200 . You have no idea who I am, what qualifications I have or what I do for a living etc. As far as you are aware I may work for RateSetter - you have no way of knowing and never will. It is extremely important that people on here are not presented with inaccurate or misleading information, especially in light of the current situation. I am not telling you what is the case, I am trying to inform someone who asked a question why we actually don't know. There is a big difference between expressing 'opinion' as correct, and recommending caution given the little we know.
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Post by diversifier on May 8, 2020 13:40:59 GMT
I think it’s also interesting to analyse (and track) the monthly platform performance figures of sellout and lending. In the month of April, on £854m total assets, RS received £65.6m repayments from borrowers plus £5.2m on their behalf from the PF, total £70.8m. Investors sold out £23.3m = 33% of RS income, and re-lent £39.3m = 56% of RS income The figures don’t add up to 100%, as the remainder funds both RS operating margin and contributions to the PF. Perhaps it’s better to say that investors sold out 37% of their own income. They haven’t entirely switched off at that point. But they continued to sell request through April, and the notice of reduced interest is excluded from April. So it will be interesting to see what next month’s figures look like. Aren't those platform figures performance to end of March? April figures won't be published until the last week of May. Are they? It wasn’t clear to me. In that case, they are March figures.
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Post by freefalljunkie on May 8, 2020 13:42:27 GMT
Hi, I have RYI requests from the 13th in access plus and max and I was told 2 days who it would be at least another 3 months from now, maybe longer but they are still quoting "over 1 month from date of request" on there updates and FAQ section of there blog They should be honest with us and change this. That is useful info as is comes from Ratesetter and they must have a very good idea of how long this will take. There is going to be very little if any new investment coming in for the rest of the year since the interest rate haircut, so the main source of liquidity can only be money returned as loans come to an end and that should be very predictable. Agree the 'over one month' statement is disingenuous, but at least this week their daily updates have gone back to telling us which date of requests they are currently processing. It is hard to see what if anything Ratesetter could do to speed things up, although it is surely in their long term interest to do so to prevent their reputation being irretrievably damaged with potential future investors (including exiting investors who might come back if the risk/reward balance makes P2P attractive once again).
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on May 8, 2020 14:00:23 GMT
Hi, I have RYI requests from the 13th in access plus and max and I was told 2 days who it would be at least another 3 months from now, maybe longer but they are still quoting "over 1 month from date of request" on there updates and FAQ section of there blog They should be honest with us and change this. That is useful info as is comes from Ratesetter and they must have a very good idea of how long this will take. There is going to be very little if any new investment coming in for the rest of the year since the interest rate haircut, so the main source of liquidity can only be money returned as loans come to an end and that should be very predictable. Agree the 'over one month' statement is disingenuous, but at least this week their daily updates have gone back to telling us which date of requests they are currently processing. It is hard to see what if anything Ratesetter could do to speed things up, although it is surely in their long term interest to do so to prevent their reputation being irretrievably damaged with potential future investors (including exiting investors who might come back if the risk/reward balance makes P2P attractive once again). I hate to sound like a broken record, but even RS themselves are doing a lot of guessing, so I wouldn't assume that "they must have a very good idea of how long this will take". The estimates they've provided to customers have increased hugely in recent weeks, for example. They know one variable we don't know - actual £ amounts of withdrawals - but they also cannot predict liquidity. The latter could vary hugely depending on what happens in the coming weeks and months with the pandemic. Loan repayments are somewhat predictable, yes; but it's the proportion of this repayment that is re-invested by lenders that matters.* This really is, unfortunately, a 'sit tight and wait' situation - much as it frustrates our desperate need for certainty! Edit: *Because, of course, if money is returned through repayment, you receive it in your account for immediate withdrawal regardless of queue position. Unless that money is re-invested, it doesn't provide any liquidity for our purposes. Edit Edit: Also, if you want to know which date they're processing, you can also just check the other thread tracking this on this forum, rather than needing RS to confirm it in updates
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Post by dennispj on May 8, 2020 14:20:07 GMT
My release request is 373786 from the 12/03/2020 so hopefully it will hit any day. How do I turn off the reinvest settings - tried but cant get it to work? Currently set at 8% but want to ensure the money isn't lent back out?
Thanks for your help in advance.
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aju
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Post by aju on May 8, 2020 14:23:17 GMT
My release request is 373786 from the 12/03/2020 so hopefully it will hit any day. How do I turn off the reinvest settings - tried but cant get it to work? Currently set at 8% but want to ensure the money isn't lent back out? Thanks for your help in advance. You can't, your only option is go in and catch it as quick as you can, just cancel any items that are in the queue for lending and haven't yet been sucked up. I caught one yesterday @ 8% and it had very little in front of it - not to say it would have actually gone our at that rate though.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on May 8, 2020 14:25:43 GMT
My release request is 373786 from the 12/03/2020 so hopefully it will hit any day. How do I turn off the reinvest settings - tried but cant get it to work? Currently set at 8% but want to ensure the money isn't lent back out? Thanks for your help in advance. You're right that unfortunately you can't turn off re-investment properly. It's not impossible rates should get that high, but it's most likely that setting it to 8% should give you plenty of opportunity to cancel and withdraw. Just to be clear, though, as I understand it this isn't an issue for queued withdrawals. These are already set as withdrawals so will go into your holding account; that is, they're not repayments which would be re-invested automatically. Someone who has had their money returned can correct me if I'm wrong, though. Hope that helps! Edit: crossed with aju
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Post by dennispj on May 8, 2020 14:28:48 GMT
Few, that's reassuring. Thanks for the speedy replies.
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