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Post by RateSetter on Jun 23, 2020 17:06:13 GMT
Good evening. Today we have delivered £0.6m. The full update follows below:
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jun 23, 2020 18:06:11 GMT
This is going up which is good news but the access queue seems to be moving incredibly slowly to me, Am I being cynical to suspect most of this fall is due to loans completing and investors simply withdrawing them from their holding account?
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Jun 23, 2020 18:07:42 GMT
This is going up which is good news but the access queue seems to be moving incredibly slowly to me, Am I being cynical to suspect most of this fall is due to loans completing and investors simply withdrawing them from their holding account? I don't know how many times we're going to have this conversation on this forum, but what makes you think the Access queue is moving 'incredibly slowly' (either in comparison to the other markets, or in comparison to its speed up to now)?
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adrian77
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Post by adrian77 on Jun 23, 2020 18:20:56 GMT
so I am wrong and this queue which has been on the same day for weeks day is moving quickly? I also note just £0.6m was released today over all markets. This was a perfectly reasonable question so I will wait for a perferctly reasonable person to give me a perefactly reasonable answer.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Jun 23, 2020 18:28:30 GMT
so I am wrong and this queue which has been on the same day for weeks day is moving quickly? I also note just £0.6m was released today over all markets. This was a perfectly reasonable question so I will wait for a perferctly reasonable person to give me a perefactly reasonable answer. That depends how you define 'quickly', which is why I asked about what you're comparing it to. It's not about whether you're 'wrong' - it's about trying to work out on what basis you're calling movement through the Access queue in particular 'incredibly slow'. There have been endless posts on this, but see here for one: p2pindependentforum.com/post/392528/threadEssentially, looking at what day RS is processing is not a good way to tell how quickly they are moving with the queue. There could have been £200m requested in Access just on 12 March - if RS proceeded through that in a couple of months, I would call that moving pretty quickly, even though they stayed on the same day of releases.
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Post by RateSetter on Jun 24, 2020 16:14:54 GMT
Good afternoon. Today we have delivered £0.4m. Full update is below:
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Post by diversifier on Jun 24, 2020 19:23:29 GMT
so I am wrong and this queue which has been on the same day for weeks day is moving quickly? I also note just £0.6m was released today over all markets. This was a perfectly reasonable question so I will wait for a perferctly reasonable person to give me a perefactly reasonable answer. That depends how you define 'quickly', which is why I asked about what you're comparing it to. It's not about whether you're 'wrong' - it's about trying to work out on what basis you're calling movement through the Access queue in particular 'incredibly slow'. There have been endless posts on this, but see here for one: p2pindependentforum.com/post/392528/threadEssentially, looking at what day RS is processing is not a good way to tell how quickly they are moving with the queue. There could have been £200m requested in Access just on 12 March - if RS proceeded through that in a couple of months, I would call that moving pretty quickly, even though they stayed on the same day of releases. £200m in a couple of months wouldn’t just be “pretty quickly”, it’s mathematically impossible. The total repayment turnover from loans is only £40m per month. Without external new investors, it’s impossible to release more than that, and RS have (correctly) terminated new investment. Their actual ceiling rate is rather below that, for reasons other people have mentioned. The best way to define “slowness” of queue is from two directions: RS are piping 50% of the maximum rate *available to them* towards RYIs. Therefore, RS could at most double the current RYI rate - if they chose to shut off new lending entirely. From the other direction, it’s a fairly easy extrapolation how long will it take to clear this peak in Access RYI: So far, they’ve cleared 1100 RYI numbers in Access in 3 months. The next three months will take us numerically to about #375200, which is the evening of 13th March. A year from now will be servicing #378500 which is the tail end of 16th March, and two years should get us to 19th March. That’s the *best case* scenario if nobody else RYIs between now and then, which of course they will over the next year or so. Yes, using RYI numbers rather than money amount might seem questionable. But really it’s difficult to believe the average RYI amount would change significantly between 12th to 18th March, and you’d need at least a factor of two to even see any difference in the practical outcome. So, simple numerical extrapolation will be surprisingly accurate. Bearing all that in mind, there’s only a teeny tiny minority for whom it makes any difference at all whether the queue now goes slow or fast. Only people who RYId on or before 16th March will get their money at all this way, plus maybe 17/18th. Everyone else just has to wait for their loans to repay the long way round. For people not understanding how this could possibly be true, and so very different from 5-year, here’s what I think: 5-year investors have 5-year time horizons. In normal times, their RYIs are mostly funded by reinvestment from other 5-yr investors, which is at least a very predictable flow. And in crisis, most of them didn’t RYI, so the peak was painful but containable. Access investors have usually shorter than one-year time horizons, which is much less than the average duration of their loans. Therefore, even in normal times, the vast majority of their RYIs are funded by new investor turnover. In crisis, the incoming tap turns off. Even if they *didnt* panic sell, there would still be a liquidity crisis. But also, a much larger fraction of them *do* sell, because they aren’t inclined to wait out the crisis, and *bang*, it’s game over.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Jun 24, 2020 20:50:34 GMT
That depends how you define 'quickly', which is why I asked about what you're comparing it to. It's not about whether you're 'wrong' - it's about trying to work out on what basis you're calling movement through the Access queue in particular 'incredibly slow'. There have been endless posts on this, but see here for one: p2pindependentforum.com/post/392528/threadEssentially, looking at what day RS is processing is not a good way to tell how quickly they are moving with the queue. There could have been £200m requested in Access just on 12 March - if RS proceeded through that in a couple of months, I would call that moving pretty quickly, even though they stayed on the same day of releases. £200m in a couple of months wouldn’t just be “pretty quickly”, it’s mathematically impossible.The total repayment turnover from loans is only £40m per month. Without external new investors, it’s impossible to release more than that, and RS have (correctly) terminated new investment. Their actual ceiling rate is rather below that, for reasons other people have mentioned. Yup, I was giving a deliberately obtuse example to illustrate my point that you could have a huge amount requested on a single day - not a suggestion that this is actually a possibility in these circumstances.
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Post by gar on Jun 25, 2020 4:38:19 GMT
From the other direction, it’s a fairly easy extrapolation how long will it take to clear this peak in Access RYI: So far, they’ve cleared 1100 RYI numbers in Access in 3 months. The next three months will take us numerically to about #375200, which is the evening of 13th March. A year from now will be servicing #378500 which is the tail end of 16th March, and two years should get us to 19th March. That’s the *best case* scenario if nobody else RYIs between now and then, which of course they will over the next year or so. Yes, using RYI numbers rather than money amount might seem questionable. But really it’s difficult to believe the average RYI amount would change significantly between 12th to 18th March, and you’d need at least a factor of two to even see any difference in the practical outcome. So, simple numerical extrapolation will be surprisingly accurate. I agree with diversifiers comments, the past three or four months have established a trend which if the momentum can be continued will hit his predicted dates. EDIT, Continuation of momentum being the key
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Post by cinereus on Jun 25, 2020 14:56:34 GMT
So far, they’ve cleared 1100 RYI numbers in Access in 3 months. The next three months will take us numerically to about #375200, which is the evening of 13th March. A year from now will be servicing #378500 which is the tail end of 16th March, and two years should get us to 19th March. That’s the *best case* scenario if nobody else RYIs between now and then, which of course they will over the next year or so. Yes, using RYI numbers rather than money amount might seem questionable. But really it’s difficult to believe the average RYI amount would change significantly between 12th to 18th March, and you’d need at least a factor of two to even see any difference in the practical outcome. So, simple numerical extrapolation will be surprisingly accurate. Bearing all that in mind, there’s only a teeny tiny minority for whom it makes any difference at all whether the queue now goes slow or fast. Only people who RYId on or before 16th March will get their money at all this way, plus maybe 17/18th. Everyone else just has to wait for their loans to repay the long way round. Wish someone could repost this every time someone asks a same-old question.
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Post by RateSetter on Jun 25, 2020 16:37:40 GMT
Good afternoon all. Today we have delivered £0.5m and the full update is below.
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Post by peertopier on Jun 25, 2020 23:50:19 GMT
Heading for the worst week. I'm guessing that the process of "releasing" just means waiting for money to be reinvested or some payments to come in.
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Post by RateSetter on Jun 26, 2020 16:08:22 GMT
Good afternoon. Today we have delivered £0.4m. The full update follows below:
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adrian77
Member of DD Central
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Post by adrian77 on Jun 26, 2020 16:19:29 GMT
considering at least part of this was loans that came to end of term I find this extremely disappointing.,..be interesting to see what next week brings.
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Post by Badly Drawn Stickman on Jun 26, 2020 18:29:13 GMT
considering at least part of this was loans that came to end of term I find this extremely disappointing.,..be interesting to see what next week brings. I think you might need to walk that one past me slowly so I can have a close look, I think its a false premise. Pretty sure it was inevitable with few new loans being made that the overall churn would drop, and a steady stream of negative comments tends to wake up those best left sleeping contently, so less will be left to recycle.
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