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Post by rl on Jul 29, 2020 18:25:27 GMT
Im off to buy a lottery ticket Lets see if I can get tomorrow right as well You say this like it's a good thing that you were right Interestingly, though, A/P/M suddenly had £500k arrive in the Investor column within the last hour. You normally don't see this (money is there first thing in the morning, then more or less gradually erodes throughout the day). So I will pin my hopes to a better day tomorrow! Not sure if this helps, but this evening I got a surprise windfall in my Access account - part of a £763K property loan which was repaid today 9 months early (and no provision fund input). May account for the sudden £500K you saw?
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Jul 29, 2020 18:28:01 GMT
You say this like it's a good thing that you were right Interestingly, though, A/P/M suddenly had £500k arrive in the Investor column within the last hour. You normally don't see this (money is there first thing in the morning, then more or less gradually erodes throughout the day). So I will pin my hopes to a better day tomorrow! Not sure if this helps, but this evening I got a surprise windfall in my Access account - part of a £763K property loan which was repaid today 9 months early (and no provision fund input). May account for the sudden £500K you saw? Thank you, that's very interesting information! If it was indeed that loan, this is potentially a (very, very rough) indication of the actually quite high number of investors who still have auto re-investment at the going rate switched on.
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Post by diversifier on Jul 29, 2020 22:31:52 GMT
Not sure if this helps, but this evening I got a surprise windfall in my Access account - part of a £763K property loan which was repaid today 9 months early (and no provision fund input). May account for the sudden £500K you saw? Thank you, that's very interesting information! If it was indeed that loan, this is potentially a (very, very rough) indication of the actually quite high number of investors who still have auto re-investment at the going rate switched on. Do you mean that the reinvestment % would be roughly £500k out of £763k? And only roughly, because loans aren’t diversified well across investors, so that £763k loan only measures the reinvestment across a small fraction of investors? That number agrees well with estimate generated directly from RS monthly performance data (although, that’s across the whole platform).
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Jul 29, 2020 22:40:45 GMT
Thank you, that's very interesting information! If it was indeed that loan, this is potentially a (very, very rough) indication of the actually quite high number of investors who still have auto re-investment at the going rate switched on. Do you mean that the reinvestment % would be roughly £500k out of £763k? And only roughly, because loans aren’t diversified well across investors, so that £763k loan only measures the reinvestment across a small fraction of investors? That number agrees well with estimate generated directly from RS monthly performance data (although, that’s across the whole platform). No I don’t mean that, because I’m aware that loans aren’t diversified, which is why I said “very, very rough indication”. I deliberately declined from calculating a % figure for this reason. All I said was that it was *potentially* an indication that quite a high number of investors are still re-investing (compared to some talk on here of hardly anyone doing it by now). No more, no less.
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robski
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Post by robski on Jul 30, 2020 7:27:43 GMT
Early doors analysis for 30/7
New Markets estimate £900k less lending non RYI 5 Year £275k
So gut feel is we may be looking at a £700-900k day, and over half from access
(Still ignoring 1 year)
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Jul 30, 2020 11:40:05 GMT
Early doors analysis for 30/7 New Markets estimate £900k less lending non RYI 5 Year £275k So gut feel is we may be looking at a £700-900k day, and over half from access (Still ignoring 1 year) A/P/M whittled down all morning and then this appears to (presumably) take up the rest. I really hope these are RYI requests otherwise the amount of new lending in the A/P/M market is pretty concerning for those in the RYI queue... Attachments:
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beagle
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Post by beagle on Jul 30, 2020 13:36:45 GMT
OR is it the result of investors with RYIs withdrawing interest/repaid capital from their holding account? much discussed - I have asked RS and they did not have the information available - course they didn't I suspect the lattter but await RS to prove me wrong...go on RS be honest I know you want to! I asked and they said it was actual cancellations. It was not funds redirecting to holding as this is not a cancellation.
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robski
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Post by robski on Jul 30, 2020 14:17:25 GMT
I missed the processing today so didn't really see the before and after Based on my recollection from this morning, I think they cleared about £300K + but not £400k from 5 year New markets look like they cleared probably £600k. But assumign say £200k is new lending thats probably £500k or so RYIs So I think we are likely to see a 0.7-0.8M day today But potentially may even squeeze the £1M mark. BTW in case anyone wonders I DID win the lottery last night Unfortunately it was just a "free" lucky dip
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Jul 30, 2020 14:22:43 GMT
New markets look like they cleared probably £600k. But assumign say £200k is new lending thats probably £500k or so RYIs If by new markets you mean A/P/M, what is your £600k meant to signify? The total amount matched today? If so, it's been more like £1m+ - the £900k that you identified yourself in your previous post, and then a little more throughout the day. Also, how are you calculating the £200k that is new lending? Or is this just pure guesswork? Well over this amount has appeared in the Borrower column (see my last post, and there's been plenty more than that), so you would be going back on your conclusion that these aren't RYI requests?
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robski
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Post by robski on Jul 30, 2020 14:37:45 GMT
New markets look like they cleared probably £600k. But assumign say £200k is new lending thats probably £500k or so RYIs If by new markets you mean A/P/M, what is your £600k meant to signify? The total amount matched today? If so, it's been more like £1m+ - the £900k that you identified yourself in your previous post, and then a little more throughout the day. Also, how are you calculating the £200k that is new lending? Or is this just pure guesswork? Well over this amount has appeared in the Borrower column (see my last post, and there's been plenty more than that), so you would be going back on your conclusion that these aren't RYI requests? Oh your right I double dipped on the new lending, I had already knocked off that. Yeah £200k is a guess but ive in effect doubled that. Lets restate, I think 5 Year is £300k+, the difference in todays RYI is probably access but could be partly 1 year. Ideally someone with 1 year access could keep an eye on that. I think its easier to deduce APM (or new as I prefer to think of it) as the balancing number from total less 5 year and 1 year. As those are seemingly pretty accurate to gauge since certainly for 5 year there seems to be no new lending. Sounds like you saw a better view of the APM than I did today, I was speculating based on this morning and thats not going to be great, far better to pickup late lunch as you can then see the big movement happen. I would certainly be pretty confident in the £300k minimum from 5 year though.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Jul 30, 2020 14:45:52 GMT
I think its easier to deduce APM (or new as I prefer to think of it) as the balancing number from total less 5 year and 1 year. As those are seemingly pretty accurate to gauge since certainly for 5 year there seems to be no new lending. Agreed - if only we knew the 1 Year RYI figure too we could work out A/P/M pretty much exactly. But if new lending is happening from 1 Year, then we can't work this out I'm not sure how others further back in the queue have been moving (due to cancellations), but this has all been driven from my perspective by not moving a single place in the A/P/M queue in the last week. Before we had queue position numbers, it was impossible to know whether the queue was really stuck or not as we just didn't have enough users on here to tell. So now that we have a confirmed instance of this, I'm just concerned to know whether it's the lack of A/P/M RYI processing, or someone with a huge £amount at the front. Given they won't give us the breakdown, my concern is that the former might be playing a significant part...
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Post by Ace on Jul 30, 2020 14:58:21 GMT
Well here are my qif numbers for way back in the Access queue this week:
Sun 12098, Mon 12095, Tue 12091, Wed 12086, Today 12078.
A decrease of 20 over 4 days. Presumably all due to cancellations or completions, since you haven't moved at the front.
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robski
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Post by robski on Jul 30, 2020 14:58:43 GMT
I think its easier to deduce APM (or new as I prefer to think of it) as the balancing number from total less 5 year and 1 year. As those are seemingly pretty accurate to gauge since certainly for 5 year there seems to be no new lending. Agreed - if only we knew the 1 Year RYI figure too we could work out A/P/M pretty much exactly. But if new lending is happening from 1 Year, then we can't work this out I'm not sure how others further back in the queue have been moving (due to cancellations), but this has all been driven from my perspective by not moving a single place in the A/P/M queue in the last week. Before we had queue position numbers, it was impossible to know whether the queue was really stuck or not as we just didn't have enough users on here to tell. So now that we have a confirmed instance of this, I'm just concerned to know whether it's the lack of A/P/M RYI processing, or someone with a huge £amount at the front. Given they won't give us the breakdown, my concern is that the former might be playing a significant part... I think with a few more days we can start to really get a view on 5 year, its seems reasonably easy to track as long as on line at the right period. I am pretty convinced RYIs do not show in the borrower queue. Maybe APM could be different but I dont know why it would be. I am now wondering about the two £500k entries. The £500k that arrived in the lending queue last night, and the £500k that arrived in the borrower this morning. Could these have been timed to coincide? If not, and the £500k investor was purely luck, then its clear RS are pushing a lot if not all (as it would seem) of teh lending into APM now as we speculated which will certainly be making the whole RYI issue for that market worse. It would seem that there is RYI activity in the APM queue, but equally there also seems to be evidence of people moving into processing for a number of days, so I wouldnt rule out that it may jump in chunks. Take say £1M into processing to do all the checks etc then try to release it. I dont know its RS they dont seem always completely logical. People also seemed to have issues with processing really large requests, particularly back at the times when if there was whale at the front of the queue now would have needed to request. I suppose its possible they somehow manage to get a say £1.5M request in thats going to take days to clear...
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Jul 30, 2020 15:18:48 GMT
A decrease of 20 over 4 days. Presumably all due to cancellations or completions, since you haven't moved at the front. I'm afraid it certainly appears so - unless we have another odd 'catch up' occurrence like the other week. I am pretty convinced RYIs do not show in the borrower queue. This is possible indeed, and it would suggest very minimal RYI processing as a proportion of the amount available for matching each day (based on my viewing of the market in the past week). Today, for example, it looked like most of that £1m or so was matched by funds in the Borrower column. I am now wondering about the two £500k entries. The £500k that arrived in the lending queue last night, and the £500k that arrived in the borrower this morning. Could these have been timed to coincide? If not, and the £500k investor was purely luck, then its clear RS are pushing a lot if not all (as it would seem) of teh lending into APM now as we speculated which will certainly be making the whole RYI issue for that market worse. As rl kindly informed us, it looks like that £500k yesterday evening came from the early repayment of a very large loan (although, of course, we can't be sure). The roughly £500k that arrived today was just roughly the standard amount I see most mornings which comes from daily re-investment, one assumes. It would seem that there is RYI activity in the APM queue, but equally there also seems to be evidence of people moving into processing for a number of days, so I wouldnt rule out that it may jump in chunks. Take say £1M into processing to do all the checks etc then try to release it. I dont know its RS they dont seem always completely logical. People also seemed to have issues with processing really large requests, particularly back at the times when if there was whale at the front of the queue now would have needed to request. I suppose its possible they somehow manage to get a say £1.5M request in thats going to take days to clear... Well, there hasn't been any 'activity' (i.e. movement) in the A/P/M queue in the last week. As I said above, I haven't moved one spot. But yes, there certainly was movement previously. I'm not sure I follow what you're saying in the last two lines but, yes, as per my previous posts, I fully understand there could be some big £amounts at the front of the queue. The whole point of this is not being able to tell whether it's that or minimal RYI processing that's causing the hold-up.
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Post by moongrazer on Jul 30, 2020 15:42:35 GMT
If it's useful info, I've had two early repayments in the 1 year market yesterday and today due to loans being cleared early. Yesterday from a loan for £252k, today from a £125k loan. They were contracts I wasn't expecting to see back for a while too. Gratefully reduced my RYI a bit.
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