rscal
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Post by rscal on Apr 9, 2020 13:45:36 GMT
You might be surprised to hear I got my referral bonus paid today. I have checked and it is sat there. So how good it remains, remains to be seen in light of current event
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Post by garreh on Apr 9, 2020 22:05:45 GMT
FYI - The portfolio stats have been updated as of yesterday www.growthstreet.co.uk/investing/statisticsStupidly, I didn't note down the previous figures. Don't suppose anyone had the sense to take some screen grabs? I have done this time, at least, so can monitor from now on. Here is, screenshot at 16th March 2020 Attachments:
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Apr 10, 2020 7:58:56 GMT
FYI - The portfolio stats have been updated as of yesterday www.growthstreet.co.uk/investing/statisticsStupidly, I didn't note down the previous figures. Don't suppose anyone had the sense to take some screen grabs? I have done this time, at least, so can monitor from now on. Here is, screenshot at 16th March 2020 Nice one - thanks! So we can all do a comparison now. This morning the deployment rate is down to 92.4% with a queue of £1.3m. Looks like a lot of borrowers are probably refinancing. Of course it'll most likely be the most credit-worthy ones who manage to... but still, cause for hope!
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alender
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Post by alender on Apr 10, 2020 13:40:08 GMT
Here is, screenshot at 16th March 2020 Nice one - thanks! So we can all do a comparison now. This morning the deployment rate is down to 92.4% with a queue of £1.3m. Looks like a lot of borrowers are probably refinancing. Of course it'll most likely be the most credit-worthy ones who manage to... but still, cause for hope! The development rate is falling at a good pace at present, which I guess means more liquidity which is good. However I think this will be due to invoices being paid but very few new invoices going out.
The defaults are going up
Mar 5 Apr 8
0.84% 1.1%
This is interesting as the Defaults of 21 and Claims of 19 have not changed and cannot be accounted for by the reduction in the loan book as this would give 0.875%
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Post by garreh on Apr 10, 2020 14:53:36 GMT
One slightly concerning thing with the deployment rate going down the effective interest rate does too. Days to match is 4 days on average now, which is pretty high considering we're in a liquidity event. If the trend continues we could be in a position in a months time where effective interest is at 2% or so.
That could potentially have a knock-on effect if investors see such a low interest rate then many way want to liquidate their investment when Growth Street does reopen because it's no longer attractive. I know interest is the least of our problems at the moment, should be focussing on capital etc, but just thought I'd make that observation.
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alender
Member of DD Central
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Post by alender on Apr 10, 2020 15:53:16 GMT
One slightly concerning thing with the deployment rate going down the effective interest rate does too. Days to match is 4 days on average now, which is pretty high considering we're in a liquidity event. If the trend continues we could be in a position in a months time where effective interest is at 2% or so. That could potentially have a knock-on effect if investors see such a low interest rate then many way want to liquidate their investment when Growth Street does reopen because it's no longer attractive. I know interest is the least of our problems at the moment, should be focussing on capital etc, but just thought I'd make that observation. Yes, we are now getting a lower interest rate, 4.9% (and falling), hopefully GS can pay interest to the lenders and perhaps some capital repayments. However as I stated I think this is due to less invoices being generated by the borrowers so the deployment rate will go up as once the lockdown is ended. The elephant in the room is the is the Total available facility which is much greater than the Loans outstanding and the money in the deployment pool and the difference now stands at £3,897,918 (going down) and with no new money coming in. Of course we do no know the state of the loans and if money will disappear in non performing loans.
However if lenders could see some money coming out, perhaps at least the interest it should improve confidence and perhaps encourage some new investments especially now the new ISA season has stared.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Apr 16, 2020 8:38:40 GMT
Well the deployment rate just shot up by about 5 percentage points, so that blows my theory out of the water it seems
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Post by garreh on Apr 16, 2020 15:00:03 GMT
Well the deployment rate just shot up by about 5 percentage points, so that blows my theory out of the water it seems Yeah I noticed deployment rate has shot up considerably today from 92% to 95%, quite unusual given recent pattern. What's your take on that?
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Post by garreh on Apr 16, 2020 15:03:54 GMT
Sometime between the 10th and 11 April we did see a drop in deployment rate of roughly 3.9%. Is it possible this was refinanced and has just been added back on, as it seems like roughly the same amount in increase now: 3.4%
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Apr 16, 2020 15:06:56 GMT
Well the deployment rate just shot up by about 5 percentage points, so that blows my theory out of the water it seems Yeah I noticed deployment rate has shot up considerably today from 92% to 95%, quite unusual given recent pattern. What's your take on that? I'm pretty sure at one point it got even closer to 90%, but no matter now really. To be honest, I have no idea. It could be as you suggest a refinance; but it would be odd for any money to be returned to GS in that process. More likely maybe is increased drawing on a facility/facilities. I'm not really sure what GS's planned 'way out' is if it doesn't start with lowering lending, so... there we go.
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Post by garreh on Apr 16, 2020 15:20:45 GMT
Yeah I noticed deployment rate has shot up considerably today from 92% to 95%, quite unusual given recent pattern. What's your take on that? I'm pretty sure at one point it got even closer to 90%, but no matter now really. To be honest, I have no idea. It could be as you suggest a refinance; but it would be odd for any money to be returned to GS in that process. More likely maybe is increased drawing on a facility/facilities. I'm not really sure what GS's planned 'way out' is if it doesn't start with lowering lending, so... there we go. Yeah I sent them an email encouraging them to explore various ways which included lowering lending, but they just replied with the usual business waffle. Quite frustrating their lack of communication. Though they did manage to send out a Happy Easter email so I guess they do care about investors afterall 🤣
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Post by garreh on Apr 16, 2020 15:23:17 GMT
They did say in that Easter email though that their "Risk Assessment" manager would send communication soon giving more information. Given Growth Streets lack of transpacy during this liquidity event I'm doubtful we're get any substantiate solutions, but staying optimistic.
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chris1200
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Post by chris1200 on Apr 17, 2020 11:21:27 GMT
From the update we just received:
"Please note, it is not currently feasible to make wholesale alterations to the operating process of our platform (including changes to withdrawals and/or our terms & conditions with you as a result of any changes), for the duration of the event."
"One way investors could potentially contribute to minimizing probability of a resolution event is by avoiding mass withdrawals, at the end of the 90 day period should the liquidity event be remedied, to ensure sufficient liquidity remains on the platform."
Good luck with that, guys.
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Post by garreh on Apr 17, 2020 13:30:30 GMT
After reading their latest update I too noticed that contradictment. They say they cannot make any alterations to the terms of the Liquidity Event, essentially it must completely play out without any of our control - yet in the next sentence they state how *we* should minimise withdrawals if the Liquidity Event is resolved. Seems to be a bit of a contradicament there.
It almost reads as if they are operating based on blind faith as opose to providing feasible solutions such as a priority based withdrawals system, or possibilty of opening up withdrawals but in a limited way.
Anyway, let's look at some of the positives from the email:
* As a modern fintech company, they claim to have the best tools in the industry to monitor borrowing in real time and adapt quickly (downside is Borrowers can essentially create new loans under their existing agreements to drawdown on more funds, this increases the liquidity issue - however they mention they've seen an overall reduction in usage of this facility)
* They have been "rebalancing" the loanbook since Oct 2019 which has led to a 39% reduction (however I'm not sure why reducing the loanbook in itself is seen as a good thing, I assume they mean they have been reducing risk)
* A further 39% is currently on notice and we are expecting £1.54m in liquidity to return in the next few months through agreed payment plans (by my rough calculations this would amount for roughly a decrease in 5% of the deployment rate - that seems rather low. Are they suggesting that would be enough to resolve the Liquidity Event?)
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Post by garreh on Apr 17, 2020 13:37:07 GMT
Also they skimmed over quite quickly the fact that they have reduced the provision fund considerably:
By my calculations that's roughly a 50% reduction in the provision fund. That's pretty significant, they don't seem to provide any explanation for that.
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