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Post by wildlife2 on Mar 19, 2020 16:41:06 GMT
A lot more trees will be chopped down in order to keep up demand for all these toilet rolls
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m2btj
Member of DD Central
Posts: 631
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Post by m2btj on Mar 19, 2020 16:42:59 GMT
I said it last week & I'll say it again! Governments have allowed this virus to create a zombie economy that is walking toward a cliff edge. The social & economic cost of a total collapse is incomprehensible. Unemployment will be on a scale to that of the great depression following the Wall Street crash of 1939. I can't comprehend what the next 90 days will look like.
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alender
Member of DD Central
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Post by alender on Mar 19, 2020 19:23:05 GMT
Inflation ? Really ? Back in the real world, unemployment is in danger of going through the roof, and demand is going through the floor as no one is able to operate normally in the economy. Now, I agree that SOME inflationary pressue will come from Sterling dropping through the floor. But then with wwide demand suppression, that will no doubt for a while be offset by lower prices for external goods (just look at the oil price right now). now, without wanting to make it a Brexit commentary, if Brexit goes full speed ahead while everyone's focus is on stopping the 4 horseman of the apocalypse then I grant you that inflation could climb thanks to tariffs, general cost of trade, and our biggest trading partner thinking actually they'd like to keep some "for the use of the EU only" blocks on critical items. Still, I think right now the picture is a tad more deflationary in outlook rather than inflationary. Do you ever have the feeling of Déjà vu. The feeling that you have lived through a similar situation as at present. In my 54 years of life and 36 years of active investing I have seen and experienced similar financial, end of the financial world, armageddon that has never actually materialised. From my personal earliest financial loss of the Black Monday stock market crash of 1987, the dot.com crash of 2000, the banking crisis crash of 2009, all these events had one thing in common being a recovery each and every time. I have a theory based on nothing other than my experience and gut that there are many global financial institutions, currency and market makers and many elite financial ' masters of the universe' that make trillions from driving down markets and currencies. Destruction of economies, loss of lives, jobs, and misery of millions is of no interest. Higher the misery and destruction, higher their gain when they decide to turn on the recovery. This particlar overblown armageddon will deminish in the coming months. Do not overthink, do not panic, do not look for scapegoats or someone to blame ( Assetz Capital comes to mind ) The financial and wider would will recover, be it with even wealthier fanancial instititions on the planet. I really hope you are right, this feels so much worse than the crashes/corrections you mentioned. The problem now is the indebtedness of people, companies and governments alone with the real crisis of the economy tanking due to whole areas being shut down for an indefinite period. We are only told about the on balance sheet debts for countries, UK around 1.8 trillion, off balance sheet debts are estimated at around 7 trillion + from figures I remember seeing (4 trillion in 2010), do the maths this is a huge sum when divided by the number of tax payers in the UK. I check this with a economics professor as I was doubtful of the figures, his view was it is at least this size.
This was not the case in the crashes in my living memory (I was heavily invested during the 1987 crash, started investing in shares in 1982), shares have fallen more and I have never seen so many dividends cancelled in such a short period of time. If you look at previous crashes it took a number of years for the stock market to get back to where it was (especially if you include inflation), this must be one of the very few times that a reduction in oil prices did not improve other shares on the market, even gold is falling. Governments are throwing all they have and more to try to halt the crash but is having no effect and soon all their ammunition will be used up.
There is also some evidence that China will start a crypto currency based on Gold, it has greatly increased it's gold reserves to around 2,000 tons, Russia is also rumoured to be doing the same thing. If this happens there is a good chance money will flow away from western currencies that keep interest rates low or negative, spend money they don't have and print money. Unfortunately this looks more like the crash of 1929. I hope I am wrong and would love to see evidence to the contrary
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Post by Ton ⓉⓞⓃ on May 25, 2020 10:39:46 GMT
Back on topic, BBC report on negative interest rates:
"Could you have to pay your bank to save money?"
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ian
Posts: 342
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Post by ian on May 25, 2020 14:19:11 GMT
I really think the govt/bank should force lenders to pass on at lease 50% of the the rate decrease to fixed rate mortgage borrowers .... as the rate drop is lost on 80% of consumers. As regards negative rates I suspect many savers would just use spare cash to pay down debt
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rscal
Posts: 985
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Post by rscal on May 25, 2020 15:27:13 GMT
Back on topic, BBC report on negative interest rates:
"Could you have to pay your bank to save money?"
You can only have negative deposit rates if you prevent people from having cash. One supposes that project must be on Doctor Evil's The Bank of England's 'to do' list. In India they recently withdrew large demonination denomination bank notes in a largely cash-based (informal ) economy. It's a headline today but it's all part of a larger Agenda of course.
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Post by cheapaschips on May 25, 2020 16:31:57 GMT
Back on topic, BBC report on negative interest rates:
"Could you have to pay your bank to save money?"
You can only have negative deposit rates if you prevent people from having cash. One supposes that project must be on Doctor Evil's The Bank of England's 'to do' list. In India they recently withdrew large demonination denomination bank notes in a largely cash-based (informal ) economy. It's a headline today but it's all part of a larger Agenda of course. I think this will be inevitable, been their plan for a while, even making it more difficult to withdraw your money from banks. China is working on it. news.bitcoin.com/china-digital-currency/and Visa is leading on of the charges. usa.visa.com/visa-everywhere/innovation/billion-people-cashless.htmlI hope it will be a step too far for the population and resistance will not be futile, interesting, but worrying times ahead for us all.
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Post by oppsididitagain on May 25, 2020 16:34:07 GMT
I really think the govt/bank should force lenders to pass on at lease 50% of the the rate decrease to fixed rate mortgage borrowers .... as the rate drop is lost on 80% of consumers. As regards negative rates I suspect many savers would just use spare cash to pay down debt Really ?? What about if rates shot up to 5% do you think they should raise your fixed Rate or if you had a fixed savings rate with a bank do you think they should cut that as well ? Unfortunately you can't have it both ways im afraid.
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Post by gravitykillz on May 25, 2020 17:55:19 GMT
Incredible how the march posts were spot on.
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dead-money
Rocket to the Moon
Posts: 746
Likes: 654
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Post by dead-money on May 25, 2020 22:14:26 GMT
I really think the govt/bank should force lenders to pass on at lease 50% of the the rate decrease to fixed rate mortgage borrowers .... as the rate drop is lost on 80% of consumers. As regards negative rates I suspect many savers would just use spare cash to pay down debt "Oh, do be quiet please" "Let's not have any of that sort of talk here" "Stupid Boy!"
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ian
Posts: 342
Likes: 226
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Post by ian on May 26, 2020 7:01:07 GMT
Really ?? What about if rates shot up to 5% do you think they should raise your fixed Rate or if you had a fixed savings rate with a bank do you think they should cut that as well ? Unfortunately you can't have it both ways im afraid. I Would normally agree however these are exceptional circumstances...the reason the bank has cut rates is to enhance liquidity & increase spending. There is little point in such a move to kick start the economy if it doesn’t effect 80% of the population. Realistically what is the value of the move - short term?
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bg
Member of DD Central
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Post by bg on May 26, 2020 7:37:44 GMT
I Would normally agree however these are exceptional circumstances...the reason the bank has cut rates is to enhance liquidity & increase spending. There is little point in such a move to kick start the economy if it doesn’t effect 80% of the population. Realistically what is the value of the move - short term? This would cost banks billions of pounds and would see many go under. That would not equate to kick starting the economy but would instead lead to cessation of all new lending and would lead to people queuing to get their cash out (socially distanced I'm sure!). Banks hedge their mortgage portfolios. For the fixed rate element they take funding that matches the maturity. They can not break these contracts (their liabilities) but this would decimate their assets.
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Post by oppsididitagain on May 26, 2020 7:50:40 GMT
I Would normally agree however these are exceptional circumstances...the reason the bank has cut rates is to enhance liquidity & increase spending. There is little point in such a move to kick start the economy if it doesn’t effect 80% of the population. Realistically what is the value of the move - short term? With over 50% of the places closed, there aren't a lot of places open to spend the extra money . Pubs, restaurants, coffee shops etc - Cant fly away on holiday - Retail shops all closed, ok some have an online presence but why do you need nice new clothes if you can't go out, where will you spend this extra cash ? You might buy a new xbox/PS/Nintendo to keep the kids happy or relieve the boredom or a bike. But thats a 1 off purchase. The BOE reduced rates for the good of the whole economy.
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iren
Member of DD Central
Posts: 302
Likes: 300
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Post by iren on May 26, 2020 14:32:24 GMT
Back on topic, BBC report on negative interest rates:
"Could you have to pay your bank to save money?"
You can only have negative deposit rates if you prevent people from having cash. One supposes that project must be on Doctor Evil's The Bank of England's 'to do' list. In India they recently withdrew large demonination denomination bank notes in a largely cash-based (informal ) economy. It's a headline today but it's all part of a larger Agenda of course. Currently, most currency in issue is commercial bank money, whereas central bank money is available only in the form of bank notes/coins. The Bank of England has put into play the idea of issuing “central bank digital currency”. While this could have advantages, it could also be a route to a complete loss of the ability to remove cash from the system (other than by spending it), and the corollary loss of the possibility of private transactions taking place without leaving a record. However, the conclusion for the present time has been that bank notes/coins are an essential part of the economic fabric for many people, especially many who would be categorised as “vulnerable”, and that, if anything, the government and other bodies will need to act to ensure cash infrastructure (facilities to obtain and spend cash) remains, even after it becomes uneconomic. It is predicted that the increasing use of electronic payment methods will render cash infrastructure uneconomic in the near future. www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/digital-currencies For the near term, I believe cash access will be protected, but that the subsidy that will be provided will lead to it being identified as an unwanted cost to society, and a drive for “financial inclusion” that will provide everyone with non cash options. The existence of cash will then be under threat.
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Post by crabbyoldgit on May 27, 2020 9:09:24 GMT
as somebody who worked paye all his life and now works part time self employed on the edge of the fast food industry, i have to say i am stunned and amazed at the size of the backhand, cash only, multiple till black economy going on. It beggers belief how they get away with it, the missmatch between raw product purchased and declared produced food is silly. I know one shop who refuse to have a till, its just a wooden draw, no legal requirement it would seem to have one. These people will fight to the end of time to keep cash, helps to keep under the vat limit to. ps i am totally legal with tax ect just to stupid and scared to get involved i am informed.
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