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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2020 8:40:39 GMT
When this Corona virus crisis finally runs its course, we will see a new world
1) UK gov debt sky high 2) Businesses hard to restimulate 3) People used to working from home 4) University and Schools also used to learning at home
So I'm guessing the decline of office life will continue so fewer business rates coming in
Who will pay A) Savers say with reduced ISA or SIPP limits? B) A tax on capital? C) Multinational tax dodgers?
How will the economic environment change and how do we take advantage of it?
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locutus
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Post by locutus on Mar 28, 2020 9:17:14 GMT
D) Inflation
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Mar 28, 2020 9:20:40 GMT
When this Corona virus crisis finally runs its course, we will see a new world
1) UK gov debt sky high 2) Businesses hard to restimulate 3) People used to working from home 4) University and Schools also used to learning at home
So I'm guessing the decline of office life will continue so fewer business rates coming in
Who will pay A) Savers say with reduced ISA or SIPP limits? B) A tax on capital? C) Multinational tax dodgers?
How will the economic environment change and how do we take advantage of it?
5% income and dividend tax increase on everyone . Not just “tax the rich”  , everybody needs to pay. I am disappointed we didn’t see the government implement a genuine universal income and cut out beaurocracy out of this
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r00lish67
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Post by r00lish67 on Mar 28, 2020 9:29:57 GMT
<shudder> this is what I fear. In reading what might be coming along the line after this, the word stagflation comes up quite a lot.
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jj
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Post by jj on Mar 28, 2020 10:14:35 GMT
Poorest pays more tax proportionately. And considering the richest in Society caused this with their air travel...... 
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hazellend
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Post by hazellend on Mar 28, 2020 10:42:36 GMT
5% income and dividend tax increase on everyone . Not just “tax the rich” , everybody needs to pay.
I am disappointed we didn’t see the government implement a genuine universal income and cut out beaurocracy out of this Possibly because nobody has ever shown it to do the intended job (give an adequate level of income whilst replacing some/all existing benefits) whilst being affordable. See University of Bath study (PDF) here that examined lots of combinations.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 28, 2020 10:44:15 GMT
Poorest pays more tax proportionately. And considering the richest in Society caused this with their air travel......
A poor person (who probably doesn't pay income tax, but - yes - there is VAT etc) may contribute £100 which is N% of their income, whereas the rich probably pay £10,000 which is 1/10 of N%. Rich person pays for themselves and lots of the poor (who don't even pay their own way). Problem with the argument "well, the rich can 'pay a little bit more' to pay for even more poor people" is that there's no limit to the 'pay a little bit more'.
From the perspective of the third world, the whole of the developed world is massively rich. Also, it's clearly not only the 0.01% ultra-rich who fly to ski-ing areas, sunny areas etc. The rich didn't cause this virus and weren't alone in spreading it.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Mar 28, 2020 11:20:20 GMT
Possibly because nobody has ever shown it to do the intended job (give an adequate level of income whilst replacing some/all existing benefits) whilst being affordable. See University of Bath study (PDF) here that examined lots of combinations. I've withdrawn that comment as I was confusing universal income as a short-term thing with UBI as a long-term thing. I imagine the government didn't go for the former on the basis of cost (as this thread says, how are we going to pay for this?).
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corto
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Post by corto on Mar 28, 2020 11:21:32 GMT
<shudder> this is what I fear. In reading what might be coming along the line after this, the word stagflation comes up quite a lot. Quite important factor when looking for long-term investments. Not sure I would lend at even 10% in any 5 year market now (if there is no half-way reasonable exit).
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jo
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Post by jo on Mar 28, 2020 11:58:01 GMT
When this Corona virus crisis finally runs its course, we will see a new world .... How will the economic environment change and how do we take advantage of it?
W.r.t. to the first line of your post - I suspect not. W.r.t. to the last line, I wish I knew. Every seismic event throws-up winners and losers. The way to distinguish who's who is that winners will mostly be silent and invisible and losers will be mostly be at the louder end of the register on social media.
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scc
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Post by scc on Mar 28, 2020 12:01:09 GMT
I'm pretty sure there won't be a wealth tax, but all bets are off on others. I also expect inflation, but not until this is well over. People staying indoors don't spend much - ask the over 75s.
The chancellor has already indicated a desire for parity in terms of NI for the self employed. My guess is that HMRC will eventually benefit rather well out of increased sight of what's going on with the self employed. I wouldn't be surprised to see it clawed back on an individual as well as a collective basis - and would be very wary of claiming the King's Shilling if you don't need to as a result.
There will be a window of opportunity where the Govt can almost bring in any tax increases/changes without much objection. Would be interesting if its sector specific to pay for the bailouts eg airlines.
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copacetic
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Post by copacetic on Mar 28, 2020 12:04:16 GMT
I think we're going to see years of massive quantitve easing to erode the value of savings and reduce the burden of national debt. I also think we're going to see some governments default and it will make the break up of the eurozone more likely. In the medium term I think stocks will rise, but not sure if they've hit rock bottom yet. That said having more cash on hand for uncertain times is likely to be a high priority for many people.
3) People used to working from home 4) University and Schools also used to learning at home This could be really beneficial in my opinion. Workers that can work from home could reduce business costs significantly since they don't need to rent large office space. Ex office space could be converted to residential use to ease housing pressure and lower prices. Workers save on travel costs. Businesses have to implement new metrics to measure employee output on something other than old fashioned attendance. Efficient workers that can get their work completed in less time than their colleagues either have more leisure time or can get another jobs and improve productivity in our economy. Obviously industries like oil, car manufacturers and commercial landlord would lose out in this situation.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 28, 2020 12:07:39 GMT
I think we're going to see years of massive quantitve easing to erode the value of savings and reduce the burden of national debt. I also think we're going to see some governments default and it will make the break up of the eurozone more likely. In the medium term I think stocks will rise, but not sure if they've hit rock bottom yet. That said having more cash on hand for uncertain times is likely to be a high priority for many people.
3) People used to working from home 4) University and Schools also used to learning at home This could be really beneficial in my opinion. Workers that can work from home could reduce business costs significantly since they don't need to rent large office space. Ex office space could be converted to residential use to ease housing pressure and lower prices. Workers save on travel costs. Businesses have to implement new metrics to measure employee output on something other than old fashioned attendance. Efficient workers that can get their work completed in less time than their colleagues either have more leisure time or can get another jobs and improve productivity in our economy. Obviously industries like oil, car manufacturers and commercial landlord would lose out in this situation.
Indeed - I have increased my cash holding significantly - but at the cost of inflation eroding value unfortunately. Also diversifying away from Sterling as I fear it is very vulnerable and most of my future income is denominated in Sterling anyway..
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james100
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Post by james100 on Mar 28, 2020 12:23:04 GMT
www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10115919 from last night...well worth a read. And yes the B-word is mentioned because it is massively relevant with respect to the nation's frailty and resilience on a number of levels (irrespective of anyone's feelings). I also see stagflation very much on the horizon.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Mar 28, 2020 12:29:30 GMT
www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10115919 from last night...well worth a read. And yes the B-word is mentioned because it is massively relevant with respect to the nation's frailty and resilience on a number of levels ( irrespective of anyone's feelings). I also see stagflation very much on the horizon. If B was about anything it was about feelings. Gotta wonder if feelings may have changed a little, especially given the bloody-mindedness and own goal over not joining the EU common ventilator sourcing programme, and the "dog ate my homework" retrospective excuse. Not that it matters - B has been done now, for better or worse. (And yes I know there will be people arguing that there is now even more reason for B)
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, everybody needs to pay.
