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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2020 12:32:42 GMT
When this Corona virus crisis finally runs its course, we will see a new world .... How will the economic environment change and how do we take advantage of it?
W.r.t. to the first line of your post - I suspect not. W.r.t. to the last line, I wish I knew. Every seismic event throws-up winners and losers. The way to distinguish who's who is that winners will mostly be silent and invisible and losers will be mostly be at the louder end of the register on social media. Sorry jo no idea what w.r.t. means
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registerme
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Post by registerme on Mar 28, 2020 12:45:15 GMT
wrt normally means "with regard to".
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jo
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Post by jo on Mar 28, 2020 14:52:11 GMT
Sorry jo no idea what w.r.t. means With regards to.
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stokeloans
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Post by stokeloans on Mar 28, 2020 16:27:32 GMT
Quantative easing and 25% vat for a start
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2020 16:50:14 GMT
I certainly see stagflation rather than inflation.
I see zero interest or even negative rates on bank accounts
I see P2P completely ruined
I see banks becoming of little interest and I would not invest in retail banking
I see massive road building plans rather than investment in the green economy. Big mistake but unless Cummings gets involved we will satisfy the car lobby not the life lobby.
Less commuting so more home time.
Investment in the cloud and video conferencing is wise so Microsoft and Amazon will do well.
Trump will lose as he has shown incompetence during this.
Careful selection of pharma and biotech looks good to me.
Home shopping for food or physical shopping for food.... Some ideas here surely
International taxation June deadline will be breached but pressure will mount. Avoid the tax Dodgers.
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Nomad
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Post by Nomad on Mar 28, 2020 17:04:49 GMT
Trump will lose as he has shown incompetence during this. Trump has shown incompetence all his life - failed businesses, bankruptcies etc etc. At present his approval ratings are rising...
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Post by gravitykillz on Mar 29, 2020 22:36:18 GMT
<shudder> this is what I fear. In reading what might be coming along the line after this, the word stagflation comes up quite a lot. If inflation goes up does that not mean interest rates will rise as well ? Is that not better for the average saver. If they rise to a reasonable level will that mean people will dump p2p lending and return to the traditional banks and building societies?
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2020 9:40:41 GMT
You have to differentiate between net interest and "reported" interest= net interest + inflation
Interest rates are more to do with how much the Bank of England wants to stimulate the economy
Inflation comes and goes as a direct but lagging affect of the interest rates
Basically savers want net interest to be positive. While there is clearly a lot of noise net interest has been falling since the Black Death and is just about zero now and if we follow the trend line (see note about noise) we will find net interest as negative.
net interest negative has occured before and is normally used to make people spend. What it does seem to do is allow those with capital to develop companies that generate capital growth and income. That suggests that the days of savings account are long gone (like the last 5 years) and P2P at 18% are laughable. So the stock market in its various forms is the only way to stay in the 1%.
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