ilmoro
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'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Apr 21, 2020 19:40:22 GMT
Question for anyone out there. What is the latest level of institutional investment. If we assume the total investment is £425m is it approaching half £200m? Might it be that all redemptions might be swallowed up with repayments to the institutions, as covenants are broken with the level of defaults or LTVs are breached with revised property prices. AIUI Institutional investment with the exception of the Luxembourg fund which invests alongside retail is separate. I would suspect it is approaching £200m. There was £110m plus Varengold announced last year and at least one global IM in 2018. Edit actually potentially well in excess of that but obviously would depend on the deployment of funds … retail could well be the poor relation.
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ian
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Post by ian on Apr 21, 2020 19:57:11 GMT
Question for anyone out there. What is the latest level of institutional investment. If we assume the total investment is £425m is it approaching half £200m? Might it be that all redemptions might be swallowed up with repayments to the institutions, as covenants are broken with the level of defaults or LTVs are breached with revised property prices. AIUI Institutional investment with the exception of the Luxembourg fund which invests alongside retail is separate. I would suspect it is approaching £200m. There was £110m plus Varengold announced last year and at least one global IM in 2018. Edit actually potentially well in excess of that but obviously would depend on the deployment of funds … retail could well be the poor relation. Thanks for the info - so AC will be definitely dancing to their tune & they will be priority for capital repayments. That would indicate average investment is £8k which sounds about right.
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on Apr 21, 2020 20:33:52 GMT
AIUI Institutional investment with the exception of the Luxembourg fund which invests alongside retail is separate. I would suspect it is approaching £200m. There was £110m plus Varengold announced last year and at least one global IM in 2018. Edit actually potentially well in excess of that but obviously would depend on the deployment of funds … retail could well be the poor relation. Thanks for the info - so AC will be definitely dancing to their tune & they will be priority for capital repayments. That would indicate average investment is £8k which sounds about right. I don't see how that follows. Capital repayments to the institutions will depend on the loans they are invested in repaying but as retail arent invested in those loans it isn't relevant. The exception is the Luxembourg fund and I don't think they invest via the access accounts so they will get capital repayments at the same time as retail investors as they invest pari passu.
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ian
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Post by ian on Apr 21, 2020 21:20:40 GMT
Thanks for the info - so AC will be definitely dancing to their tune & they will be priority for capital repayments. That would indicate average investment is £8k which sounds about right. I don't see how that follows. Capital repayments to the institutions will depend on the loans they are invested in repaying but as retail arent invested in those loans it isn't relevant. The exception is the Luxembourg fund and I don't think they invest via the access accounts so they will get capital repayments at the same time as retail investors as they invest pari passu. I can only give you a small insight into my dealings with private equity & banks. Usually there are a number of covenants. For example the loan £200m might be based on the whole portfolio having an aggregate LTV of say 33% - which would be 66% when supported by retail investors. That would mean the total portfolio would have a value of £600m. If it is deemed property prices have dropped by 10% to £540m they would contractually allowed to claw back loan capital £20m. There could be covenants limiting the exposure to being 33% based on say 2.5% loan defaults - should the level of defaults increase the capital might be reduced. The loan will also be secured on a multiple of ACs earnings let’s call it 8x (£25m in this example) as these reduce to say 16.25m (as a result of 3month interest holiday) 25% / £50m might have to be contractually repaid. Clearly this is speculation on my part however I’m pretty sure there will be clauses similar to this in the agreements - Hopefully less onerous, however the banks & PE boys are ruthless and wouldn’t give a monkeys about anybody bar their £200m plus interest. If this is the case retail investors could be royally screwed! Just one final thought if there was £90m to be repaid, possibly the borrowers might have access to government funding to support those repayments vis AC as technically they are repayments to retail investors. The reason AC might not repay those to US as investors is they need the capital to pay down the institutional investors - lord knows !
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TitoPuente
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Post by TitoPuente on Apr 22, 2020 7:24:33 GMT
I don't see how that follows. Capital repayments to the institutions will depend on the loans they are invested in repaying but as retail arent invested in those loans it isn't relevant. The exception is the Luxembourg fund and I don't think they invest via the access accounts so they will get capital repayments at the same time as retail investors as they invest pari passu. I can only give you a small insight into my dealings with private equity & banks. Usually there are a number of covenants. For example the loan £200m might be based on the whole portfolio having an aggregate LTV of say 33% - which would be 66% when supported by retail investors. That would mean the total portfolio would have a value of £600m. If it is deemed property prices have dropped by 10% to £540m they would contractually allowed to claw back loan capital £20m. There could be covenants limiting the exposure to being 33% based on say 2.5% loan defaults - should the level of defaults increase the capital might be reduced. The loan will also be secured on a multiple of ACs earnings let’s call it 8x (£25m in this example) as these reduce to say 16.25m (as a result of 3month interest holiday) 25% / £50m might have to be contractually repaid. Clearly this is speculation on my part however I’m pretty sure there will be clauses similar to this in the agreements - Hopefully less onerous, however the banks & PE boys are ruthless and wouldn’t give a monkeys about anybody bar their £200m plus interest. If this is the case retail investors could be royally screwed! Just one final thought if there was £90m to be repaid, possibly the borrowers might have access to government funding to support those repayments vis AC as technically they are repayments to retail investors. The reason AC might not repay those to US as investors is they need the capital to pay down the institutional investors - lord knows ! The institutional funders are not lending to AC as a company, they are lending to the borrowers in the same way the retail investors are. The Net Debt to EBITDA covenant you mention (which is not "secured" against earnings, it's just a covenant) would only exist for a loan to AC limited, not to borrowers.
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Mikeme
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Post by Mikeme on Apr 22, 2020 7:35:42 GMT
Thanks for the info - so AC will be definitely dancing to their tune & they will be priority for capital repayments. That would indicate average investment is £8k which sounds about right. I don't see how that follows. Capital repayments to the institutions will depend on the loans they are invested in repaying but as retail arent invested in those loans it isn't relevant. The exception is the Luxembourg fund and I don't think they invest via the access accounts so they will get capital repayments at the same time as retail investors as they invest pari passu. For those of us that don't/can't use spreadsheets and the like but are able understand the information would you mind giving me some numbers please? For my clarity can you confirm some institutions are lending in loans we don't see? Does the Luxembourg not lend in access accounts but lend along side retail in MLA? What is the total value of the loan book? What is the total value of the access accounts?
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alender
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Post by alender on Apr 22, 2020 8:10:52 GMT
I don't see how that follows. Capital repayments to the institutions will depend on the loans they are invested in repaying but as retail arent invested in those loans it isn't relevant. The exception is the Luxembourg fund and I don't think they invest via the access accounts so they will get capital repayments at the same time as retail investors as they invest pari passu. For those of us that don't/can't use spreadsheets and the like but are able understand the information would you mind giving me some numbers please? For my clarity can you confirm some institutions are lending in loans we don't see? Does the Luxembourg not lend in access accounts but lend along side retail in MLA? What is the total value of the loan book? What is the total value of the access accounts? The only data I have available is from my loan books, based on my QAA loan
1/4/20 21/4/20 £418,388,350.78 £420,599,620.01
At a guess this is all or at least the major part of all AC loans including institutions.
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jlend
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Post by jlend on Apr 22, 2020 8:57:44 GMT
There are some stats on the website which give an idea about where money is invested. Some of the obvious ones are listed below for those that don't do spreadsheets. Clearly the IFISA money will include money in the access and investment accounts and manual investment. Not all the stats published are real time and some are rounded numbers. These are all simply cut/paste from the website. Some of the access account money is actually in cash in the accounts rather than loans, AC don't publish the amount of cash for those that don't do spreadsheets.
IFISA 100.81m
QAA 63m (61.3m at 31st Jan 2020 updated quarterly, assumed to include the cash balance)
30DAA 76m (72.2m at 31st Jan 2020 updated quarterly, assumed to include the cash balance)
90DAA 76m (61.4m at 31st Jan 2020 updated quarterly, assumed to include the cash balance)
GBBA1 6.37m at 31st Jan 2020 updated quarterly
GBBA2 45.29m at 31st Jan 2020 updated quarterly
PSA 17.49m at 31st Jan 2020 updated quarterly
GEA 6.1m at 31st Jan 2020 updated quarterly
I always assumed retail money is all of this (happy to be corrected by AC) plus a proportion of manual investment. As a snapshot there was 270.15m across the investment and access accounts at the end of Jan 2020 as per the figures from AC. As far as I know you would have to make a judgement call about how much of the manual invesment is retail.
As far as I know AC don't publish a quarterly snapshot of how much is invested in the manual account.
On the Defaults and Losses page you can see how much per year has been originated, plus how much per year has been repaid or is not now expected to be repaid. So as a snapshot you can work out how much in total is still outstanding (assuming some will not be repaid as per the Current Actual Losses stats). So by end Jan 2020 as a snapshot
Total loans originated £946,510,855
Total loans realised £499,255,626 (The proportion of total loans originated in a calendar year which have now been repaid or are included as Current Actual Losses (not now expected to be paid)). Interesting this includes loans not now expected to be paid.
Total loans remaining £447,255,229 across access, investment and manual lending accounts and are still expected to be repaid. Rounding will mean these figures are not that accurate.
The money in the accounts overall will actually be higher than this as there is a cash balance in the access accounts. Then there is money that is lent direct that does not appear on the website.
All the access accounts have more money in them since 31st Jan, the biggest increase is in the 90DAA, I find that quite interesting given the cohort of lenders that are trying to withdraw money and the fact that the access accounts are only picking up drawdowns. It will be interesting to watch to see if the value of the accounts falls.
As far as I know the new website will not show any real time info for the QAA, 30DAA., 90DAA so the quarterly stats will be all that is available unless you do spreadsheets.
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Mikeme
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Post by Mikeme on Apr 22, 2020 11:44:58 GMT
There are some stats on the website which give an idea about where money is invested. Some of the obvious ones are listed below for those that don't do spreadsheets. Clearly the IFISA money will include money in the access and investment accounts and manual investment. Not all the stats published are real time and some are rounded numbers. These are all simply cut/paste from the website. Some of the access account money is actually in cash in the accounts rather than loans, AC don't publish the amount of cash for those that don't do spreadsheets. IFISA 100.81m QAA 63m (61.3m at 31st Jan 2020 updated quarterly) 30DAA 76m (72.2m at 31st Jan 2020 updated quarterly) 90DAA 76m (61.4m at 31st Jan 2020 updated quarterly) GBBA1 6.37m at 31st Jan 2020 updated quarterly GBBA2 45.29m at 31st Jan 2020 updated quarterly PSA 17.49m at 31st Jan 2020 updated quarterly GEA 6.1m at 31st Jan 2020 updated quarterly I always assumed retail money is all of this (happy to be corrected by AC) plus a proportion of manual investment. As a snapshot there was 270.15m across the investment and access accounts at the end of Jan 2020 as per the figures from AC. As far as I know you would have to make a judgement call about how much of the manual invesment is retail. On the Defaults and Losses page you can see how much per year has been originated, plus how much per year has been repaid. So as a snapshot you can work out how much in total is still outstanding (assuming nothing has been completely written off). So by end Jan 2020 as a snapshot Total loans originated £946,510,855 Total loans paid back £499,255,626 Total loans remaining £447,255,229 The money in the accounts overall will actually be higher than this as there is a cash balance in the access accounts. All the access accounts have more money in them since 31st Jan, the biggest increase is in the 90DAA, I find that quite interesting given the cohort of lenders that are trying to withdraw money and the fact that the access accounts are only picking up drawdowns. It will be interesting to watch to see if the value of the accounts falls. As far as I know the new website will not show any real time info for the QAA, 30DAA., 90DAA so the quarterly stats will be all that is available unless you do spreadsheets. Thanks a lot for the info. I agree that the figures are very interesting. I am asking some more questions and hope it's not too much bother to answer. I really dont know how to research myself. ilmoro Thought that Institutional investment was in the order of £200m I have to assume some of that is not included in the figures we see as if it was included the approx total loan book would be higher than the£447M. which ilmoro thought included the Luxembourg holdings. he again indicated that they were not invested in the AAs and rank pari passu which suggests that they pay the monthly fee. This all reaffirms to me that AC are acting in a manner to protect as best as possible all of us lenders, borrowers and AC
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alanh
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Post by alanh on Apr 22, 2020 12:20:07 GMT
There are some stats on the website which give an idea about where money is invested. Some of the obvious ones are listed below for those that don't do spreadsheets. Clearly the IFISA money will include money in the access and investment accounts and manual investment. Not all the stats published are real time and some are rounded numbers. These are all simply cut/paste from the website. Some of the access account money is actually in cash in the accounts rather than loans, AC don't publish the amount of cash for those that don't do spreadsheets. IFISA 100.81m QAA 63m (61.3m at 31st Jan 2020 updated quarterly, assumed to include the cash balance) 30DAA 76m (72.2m at 31st Jan 2020 updated quarterly, assumed to include the cash balance) 90DAA 76m (61.4m at 31st Jan 2020 updated quarterly, assumed to include the cash balance) GBBA1 6.37m at 31st Jan 2020 updated quarterly GBBA2 45.29m at 31st Jan 2020 updated quarterly PSA 17.49m at 31st Jan 2020 updated quarterly GEA 6.1m at 31st Jan 2020 updated quarterly I always assumed retail money is all of this (happy to be corrected by AC) plus a proportion of manual investment. As a snapshot there was 270.15m across the investment and access accounts at the end of Jan 2020 as per the figures from AC. As far as I know you would have to make a judgement call about how much of the manual invesment is retail. As far as I know AC don't publish a quarterly snapshot of how much is invested in the manual account. On the Defaults and Losses page you can see how much per year has been originated, plus how much per year has been repaid or is not now expected to be repaid. So as a snapshot you can work out how much in total is still outstanding (assuming some will not be repaid as per the Current Actual Losses stats). So by end Jan 2020 as a snapshot Total loans originated £946,510,855 Total loans realised £499,255,626 (The proportion of total loans originated in a calendar year which have now been repaid or are included as Current Actual Losses (not now expected to be paid)). Interesting this includes loans not now expected to be paid. Total loans remaining £447,255,229 across access, investment and manual lending accounts and are still expected to be repaid. Rounding will mean these figures are not that accurate. The money in the accounts overall will actually be higher than this as there is a cash balance in the access accounts. Then there is money that is lent direct that does not appear on the website. All the access accounts have more money in them since 31st Jan, the biggest increase is in the 90DAA, I find that quite interesting given the cohort of lenders that are trying to withdraw money and the fact that the access accounts are only picking up drawdowns. It will be interesting to watch to see if the value of the accounts falls. As far as I know the new website will not show any real time info for the QAA, 30DAA., 90DAA so the quarterly stats will be all that is available unless you do spreadsheets. The value of the accounts cannot fall by definition. We are all locked in and AC are hanging onto repayments and not paying them out.
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7d7
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Post by 7d7 on Apr 22, 2020 13:19:25 GMT
I guess this is good news.
Apparently, P2P executives are bearing the brunt of the unprecedented crisis by having their wages diminished temporarily. AC has claimed their directors have taken a 50% pay cut while a few platforms have reported a 20% reduction.
Perhaps scaling back financial perks for the top brass sends a supportive message to junior staff and lenders.
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Post by dan1 on Apr 25, 2020 13:14:36 GMT
Wind powered redemption from the Access accounts coming soon I guess: Dear Lenders, Funds have now been received to redeem this loan in full. As a result, trading has now been suspended and funds will be distributed to lenders accordingly. Regards Assetz Capital
Loan #355-359, #362, #363 & #558 Makes me happy and I've got nominal sums in Access  p.s. apologies if already posted. |
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 25, 2020 13:22:39 GMT
Wind powered redemption from the Access accounts coming soon I guess: Dear Lenders, Funds have now been received to redeem this loan in full. As a result, trading has now been suspended and funds will be distributed to lenders accordingly. Regards Assetz Capital
Loan #355-359, #362, #363 & #558 Makes me happy and I've got nominal sums in Access p.s. apologies if already posted. Total of £4.325m
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iRobot
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Post by iRobot on Apr 25, 2020 13:50:12 GMT
Wind powered redemption from the Access accounts coming soon I guess: Dear Lenders, Funds have now been received to redeem this loan in full. As a result, trading has now been suspended and funds will be distributed to lenders accordingly. Regards Assetz Capital
Loan #355-359, #362, #363 & #558 Makes me happy and I've got nominal sums in Access p.s. apologies if already posted. Total of £4.325m I believe #360 is also in this cohort - adds another £800k
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Post by dan1 on Apr 25, 2020 13:54:22 GMT
Yup, my bad.... couldn't cope with the excitement |
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