Mikeme
Member of DD Central
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Post by Mikeme on Apr 4, 2020 11:01:32 GMT
I'm not and agree with him. He makes common sense.
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Post by Harland Kearney on Apr 4, 2020 11:52:58 GMT
I'm not and agree with him. He makes common sense. Most people have stopped posting in this forum board, because you litterly cannot post without being qouted as some shill. If you even remotely consider something postive you will be qouted. Alot of viewers (likely to see if AC have posted, or anybody with actual information and not panicing) but not much posts other than from the same very few members now. I myself, will be posting less, as I know BG has also had to do. Too much whinging and panicing. 
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sl75
Posts: 2,092
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Post by sl75 on Apr 4, 2020 12:01:46 GMT
Over on the beta site, the balances aren't shown at all... so I guess the loss of displayed precision is just trying to break us in gently for taking the figures away completely when the redesigned site eventually comes out of beta?
Checking today's stats, the access accounts are now only just over 95% invested in cash.
Leaving a 1% cash buffer (which AC have previously deemed perfectly acceptable last year - they didn't even suspend "normal market conditions" due to such a low cash buffer last year) would give over £8M of cash that could be distributed to investors.
It's possible of course that there may be some large additional drawdowns that have already been committed to due within the next few days, but the lack of transparency about how much cash is being held and for what reasons seems a little concerning.
[Disclosure: I currently have no withdrawal requests from access accounts, and I'm probably personally benefitting from it, because those who are having their withdrawals from QAA/30DAA unfairly blocked despite cash being available, are instead selling me loan units from their MLA at very large discounts...]
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Post by Harland Kearney on Apr 4, 2020 12:09:44 GMT
Over on the beta site, the balances aren't shown at all... so I guess the loss of displayed precision is just trying to break us in gently for taking the figures away completely when the redesigned site eventually comes out of beta? Think they didn't take too kindly to our tracking the total balance accounts thread. It is a shame, but maybe it will be replaced by something else in the future builds. As of right now, I can't see it moving alot. I think AC will be trying to keep it fairly stagnant, only advancing it with new desposits to be paid out to those in the pool. I don't agree with its removal, but I also not entirely that fussed. Seemed to conjour alot of mis-information about how much cash was really free or how much was in rentention and so so. Think AC didn't like the misinformation/speculation on the board.
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,329
Likes: 11,549
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Post by ilmoro on Apr 4, 2020 12:58:05 GMT
Over on the beta site, the balances aren't shown at all... so I guess the loss of displayed precision is just trying to break us in gently for taking the figures away completely when the redesigned site eventually comes out of beta?
Checking today's stats, the access accounts are now only just over 95% invested in cash.
Leaving a 1% cash buffer (which AC have previously deemed perfectly acceptable last year - they didn't even suspend "normal market conditions" due to such a low cash buffer last year) would give over £8M of cash that could be distributed to investors.
It's possible of course that there may be some large additional drawdowns that have already been committed to due within the next few days, but the lack of transparency about how much cash is being held and for what reasons seems a little concerning.
[Disclosure: I currently have no withdrawal requests from access accounts, and I'm probably personally benefitting from it, because those who are having their withdrawals from QAA/30DAA unfairly blocked despite cash being available, are instead selling me loan units from their MLA at very large discounts...]
Currently £2m of pending drawdowns. Seem to be being managed much the same way as withdrawals with only £900k being drawndown last week out of £3m advised. £4.6m came back onto the platform from redemptions but not sure how much of that was into the access accounts.
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Mikeme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 428
Likes: 331
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Post by Mikeme on Apr 4, 2020 13:11:52 GMT
Over on the beta site, the balances aren't shown at all... so I guess the loss of displayed precision is just trying to break us in gently for taking the figures away completely when the redesigned site eventually comes out of beta? Think they didn't take too kindly to our tracking the total balance accounts thread. It is a shame, but maybe it will be replaced by something else in the future builds. As of right now, I can't see it moving alot. I think AC will be trying to keep it fairly stagnant, only advancing it with new desposits to be paid out to those in the pool. I don't agree with its removal, but I also not entirely that fussed. Seemed to conjour alot of mis-information about how much cash was really free or how much was in rentention and so so. Think AC didn't like the misinformation/speculation on the board. I have also stopped replying to the angry FEELING ENTITLED. As to tracking my guess is it's mainly the professional lenders that do. Also a guess that most like me don't even know how to check and were always in for the at least medium turn. No body really saw this coming the former or latter. AC aint perfect but have made quick decisions in a fast moving situation. Better than any lawyers and all that that entails and if I get out with most of my capital back in a couple of years. Yes a couple of years! If I get less or no interest in the meantime that will be much more than many borrowers who WE ALL decided to support in P2P in exchange for greater returns. Look at it this way if you have been a lender for 3 years @ 7% PA and then lose 10% of your capital your'e still 5% better off than the max 2% from a bank. 3x7% = 21% -10% =11%-6% =5%
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Post by Harland Kearney on Apr 4, 2020 13:28:30 GMT
Considering we are seeing daily if not intra-daily payouts to the cash account. Somebody is still willing to invest. This board is only a micro view into the investors pool of feelings. Of course nobody is going to like fees, or is going to like illquid asset in most contexts. But honestly, how would this of been avoidble? It wasn't to a large degree. Personally I think AC will pull though intact and I don't have too much concern for my capital at this point in the platform. Although there is much work to be done, and unfontunely alot more room for AC to do something very very bad. Once markets cool down and the crisis is more settled in 6 months, liquidity will likely return (although not as previously, that will take sometime or a general change in tone from the Goverment themselvse). It all depends on how damaged the loan book is, and how able AC is drawdowing new loans once the dust settles. If both of these are fulfilled investor confidence will likely restore liquidity, if albiet to only speed up movement of the queue. I dont' see this as a event like FC or Lendy, or even FS. Solely because those platforms collasped in perfectly good conditions, they collasped because the platforms were bad. People were perfectly fine to invest in AC before the, you know massive economical lockdown across the majority of the developed nations in the world.AC haven't done themselves any favours with some of the comms, and the very badly timed first blog video, (second one was much better lol)that came off to me as a plea for calm. But I think they had to make large stressful decisions on the fly. Why didn't they have plans for this? Well I think they did, I just think those plans were built of the 2008 models. the 2008 crash didn't have the Goverment itself forcing businsses to shut and building to be halted or slowed. It's very unqiue set of circumstances. S**t happens. The only thing I want to light a fire under AC about, our 1 fees, and 2 not letting borrowers of the hook the moment things turn a bit more to normaility. (Which will be a slowly phased in thing, it won't be a click of a finger ofc) It fairly diffcult to predict any of that. The *Told you so* brigade doesnt' help matters and makes it extremely diffcult to discuss on these boards as of right now. |
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sl75
Posts: 2,092
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Post by sl75 on Apr 4, 2020 13:49:48 GMT
Currently £2m of pending drawdowns. Seem to be being managed much the same way as withdrawals with only £900k being drawndown last week out of £3m advised. £4.6m came back onto the platform from redemptions but not sure how much of that was into the access accounts. Comparing snapshots from 25/03 and 04/04 (these are all done from two simple loan book downloads, and a bit of calculation, using the knowledge of the specific amounts of certain loans to rescale the loan book to represent the entirety of the access accounts), I see the following differences:
Overall access account totals: 217,879,877 increased to 218,321,019 [this is bigger than the £213M implied by the visible QAA/30DAA/90DAA because of some promotional accounts] Total amount invested: 209,596,403 decreased to 207,581,537
Implied cash buffer: 8,283,474 increased to 10,739,481
In other words, the access accounts have received nearly £2.5M more than has been paid out to investors or in additional drawdowns of loans.
Overall, repayments and loan unit sales have totaled 4,074,737 (152 loans having some reduction due to sales or repayments, and in particular 628 686 798 1194 repaid in full, and 704 743 852 898 957 1171 1195 1259 1276 had access account holdings reduced by at least a 5 figure sum despite not repaying in full [I'd need to look elsewhere to find out which were partial repayments and which were sales to MLA investors])
New drawdowns have totalled 2,059,871, with further amounts advanced to 590 691 878 962 994 1030 1038 1053 1077 1120 1133 1136 1156 1196 1203 1205 1226 1247 1250 1271 1273.
I'd previously been using my snapshot on 14 March as the base, which had only a 2,356,868 implied cash buffer - in other words, there's a total of more than £8M that AC didn't deem necessary to hold as cash on 14 March, but which they are now refusing to return to the investors whose cash it is, and in the meantime additional drawdowns have so far been comfortably met from a combination of loan part sales and loan repayments.
Clearly AC have access to more stats than me, and those stats may well suggest that a much larger cash buffer is indeed required today than was required just 3 weeks ago, but otherwise, restrictions on withdrawals that seem much heavier than are directly justified seem only to be further contributing to the panic.
If anyone else wants to compile similar stats, it's quite easy...
1. Take a QAA/30DAA/90DAA loan book download, and open in EXCEL 2. In K1 enter: =10000/MODE(H:H) 3. In K2 enter: =H2*K$1, and replicate this down to the rest of column K 4. Each loan should now show the exact amount that the access account portfolio is holding of that loan.
The key pieces of knowledge that make this work are that the amount displayed as your share of each loan is precisely scaled from the overall loan book, and that the most common value in that column represents loans where the overall loan book holds exactly £10,000. [Technically these are strongly believed assumptions rather than "known facts", and may be subject to change based on AC policies]
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Post by Harland Kearney on Apr 4, 2020 13:57:53 GMT
Currently £2m of pending drawdowns. Seem to be being managed much the same way as withdrawals with only £900k being drawndown last week out of £3m advised. £4.6m came back onto the platform from redemptions but not sure how much of that was into the access accounts. Comparing snapshots from 25/03 and 04/04 (these are all done from two simple loan book downloads, and a bit of calculation, using the knowledge of the specific amounts of certain loans to rescale the loan book to represent the entirety of the access accounts), I see the following differences:
Overall access account totals: 217,879,877 increased to 218,321,019 [this is bigger than the £213M implied by the visible QAA/30DAA/90DAA because of some promotional accounts] Total amount invested: 209,596,403 decreased to 207,581,537
Implied cash buffer: 8,283,474 increased to 10,739,481
In other words, the access accounts have received nearly £2.5M more than has been paid out to investors or in additional drawdowns of loans.
Overall, repayments and loan unit sales have totaled 4,074,737 (152 loans having some reduction due to sales or repayments, and in particular 628 686 798 1194 repaid in full, and 704 743 852 898 957 1171 1195 1259 1276 had access account holdings reduced by at least a 5 figure sum despite not repaying in full [I'd need to look elsewhere to find out which were partial repayments and which were sales to MLA investors])
New drawdowns have totalled 2,059,871, with further amounts advanced to 590 691 878 962 994 1030 1038 1053 1077 1120 1133 1136 1156 1196 1203 1205 1226 1247 1250 1271 1273.
I'd previously been using my snapshot on 14 March as the base, which had only a 2,356,868 implied cash buffer - in other words, there's a total of more than £8M that AC didn't deem necessary to hold as cash on 14 March, but which they are now refusing to return to the investors whose cash it is, and in the meantime additional drawdowns have so far been comfortably met from a combination of loan part sales and loan repayments.
Clearly AC have access to more stats than me, and those stats may well suggest that a much larger cash buffer is indeed required today than was required just 3 weeks ago, but otherwise, restrictions on withdrawals that seem much heavier than are directly justified seem only to be further contributing to the panic.
If anyone else wants to compile similar stats, it's quite easy...
1. Take a QAA/30DAA/90DAA loan book download, and open in EXCEL 2. In K1 enter: =10000/MODE(H:H) 3. In K2 enter: =H2*K$1, and replicate this down to the rest of column K 4. Each loan should now show the exact amount that the access account portfolio is holding of that loan.
The key pieces of knowledge that make this work are that the amount displayed as your share of each loan is precisely scaled from the overall loan book, and that the most common value in that column represents loans where the overall loan book holds exactly £10,000. [Technically these are strongly believed assumptions rather than "known facts", and may be subject to change based on AC policies]
Very interesting analysis, thanks for the effort putting it togather. I imagine AC believe fulfilling borrower drawdowns is more important than allowing the cash out of the door. Additionally it is possible they may also be preparing for a increase in loan requests in short term once the crisis settles, possibly?
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ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,329
Likes: 11,549
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Post by ilmoro on Apr 4, 2020 14:46:42 GMT
Interesting, fraid I haven't used any fancy spreadsheet wizardry (apart from adding the numbers up) just mark one eyeball/reading but I can see that there are loans that have had drawdowns that you haven't referenced
#1230, #947, #1122
rises the question whether those drawdowns haven't been funded from the access accounts
Edit: only started keeping a full note this week due to not wading through every loan with the mass update last week so will have missed those advised of drawdowns last week but drawing this week.
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alanh
Posts: 556
Likes: 560
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Post by alanh on Apr 4, 2020 16:04:10 GMT
Over on the beta site, the balances aren't shown at all... so I guess the loss of displayed precision is just trying to break us in gently for taking the figures away completely when the redesigned site eventually comes out of beta?
Checking today's stats, the access accounts are now only just over 95% invested in cash.
Leaving a 1% cash buffer (which AC have previously deemed perfectly acceptable last year - they didn't even suspend "normal market conditions" due to such a low cash buffer last year) would give over £8M of cash that could be distributed to investors.
It's possible of course that there may be some large additional drawdowns that have already been committed to due within the next few days, but the lack of transparency about how much cash is being held and for what reasons seems a little concerning.
[Disclosure: I currently have no withdrawal requests from access accounts, and I'm probably personally benefitting from it, because those who are having their withdrawals from QAA/30DAA unfairly blocked despite cash being available, are instead selling me loan units from their MLA at very large discounts...]
What possible reason could they have for taking away the balances completely? Because they don't like people knowing whats happening to their money? REDUCING TRANSPARENCY AND SHUTTING DOWN INFORMATION FLOW ONLY MAKES PEOPLE QUESTION YOUR MOTIVES EVEN MORE ASSETZ CAPITAL.
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sl75
Posts: 2,092
Likes: 1,245
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Post by sl75 on Apr 4, 2020 19:03:32 GMT
Interesting, fraid I haven't used any fancy spreadsheet wizardry (apart from adding the numbers up) just mark one eyeball/reading but I can see that there are loans that have had drawdowns that you haven't referenced #1230, #947, #1122 rises the question whether those drawdowns haven't been funded from the access accounts Checking back on the snapshots, that does indeed seem to be the case.
947 and 1122 show a difference of precisely 0.000000.. between the two snapshots - access accounts holding £659452.8331 and £500166.1654 respectively on both the "before" and "after" snapshots.
1230 went further - the access accounts seem to have reduced their holding from £273284.7419 to £272596.9049, which implies it sold £687.8370 to MLA investors even in the current market conditions.
So they're presumably involving at least some third party underwriters (perhaps one of them being the govt funding?)
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rogedavi
Member of DD Central
Posts: 100
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Post by rogedavi on Apr 4, 2020 19:04:35 GMT
Overall access account totals: 217,879,877 increased to 218,321,019 [this is bigger than the £213M implied by the visible QAA/30DAA/90DAA because of some promotional accounts] Total amount invested: 209,596,403 decreased to 207,581,537
Implied cash buffer: 8,283,474 increased to 10,739,481
How did you get the overall access account totals? I can replicate the amount invested part (207m) but not the total part (218m)
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sl75
Posts: 2,092
Likes: 1,245
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Post by sl75 on Apr 4, 2020 19:17:08 GMT
Overall access account totals: 217,879,877 increased to 218,321,019 [this is bigger than the £213M implied by the visible QAA/30DAA/90DAA because of some promotional accounts] Total amount invested: 209,596,403 decreased to 207,581,537
Implied cash buffer: 8,283,474 increased to 10,739,481 How did you get the overall access account totals? I can replicate the amount invested part (207m) but not the total part (218m) Based on formulae I gave, I think this will be K1 multiplied by the balance of your QAA/30DAA/90DAA at the moment you downloaded the loan book. My own 30DAA and 90DAA have a balance of exactly £1 so no multiplication necessary.
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rogedavi
Member of DD Central
Posts: 100
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Post by rogedavi on Apr 4, 2020 23:22:21 GMT
Thanks buddy - this is what I got for 5th April
Total 218,328,159 100.00%
Invested 207,581,501 95.08%
Liquidity buffer 10,746,657 4.92%
Suspended 26,638,099 12.20% (weighted capital valuation for these loans is 90.45% whatever that means)
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