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Post by brettb on Nov 28, 2014 9:06:15 GMT
Hi everyone, I've done some basic analysis of the Bondora downloadable loan data. Here's some analysis of the factors you can configure in the Portfolio Manager and whether they're potentially good at reducing default rates: Bondora Portfolio Manager factorsWell the executive summary of that is that the Portfolio Manager isn't that great for reducing default rates. But I had more luck looking for other factors that are available when you use the advanced search facilities on the Market and Secondary Market: Bondora Loan Default factorsWhen I get more time I'll do a bit more research. Based on my findings I've already bought up a few loans that I think will be lower than average risk - it will be interesting to see if they do indeed turn out that way. |
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JamesFrance
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Port Grimaud 1974
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Post by JamesFrance on Nov 28, 2014 10:27:31 GMT
Having had a quick look at your portfolio analysis, it seems to have produced strange figures for defaults by country.
I have over 1200 loan parts and my own defaults show about 5% for Estonia and about 25% for Spain and Finland, although the Finland figure is mainly from the early loans there, which had a very high default rate, so not much recent which I believe to be better.
Until April this year all loans had been verified for income and expense after the system changed from income only some time ago, so including all loans does not really relate to the present system where the borrowers choose the method.
I think true comparisons can only be made for periods when Bondora were not making major changes to their way of working and those have been very frequent during the 15 months I have been lending there. They seem to be about to make yet another complete change to the bidding system which may well reduce lender choice yet again.
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duck
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Post by duck on Nov 28, 2014 19:11:48 GMT
IMHO this just shows how we all have different experiences. Taking my current loans and my +60s gives me a total of 2044 loans My default rates are Estonia 6.0% (in spite of only a few being available I've recently had a fair number of zero repayment loans) Finland 9.1% (heading downwards nicely from the initial 'issues') Spain 14% (growing) Slovakia 33.3% (19 defaults - I still have 57 live ............ not a successful venture!)
On the male female split I have Male 10.8% Female 8.1% and the Spanish 'NA' is running at a much higher 12.9%!
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JamesFrance
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Port Grimaud 1974
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Post by JamesFrance on Nov 28, 2014 19:31:05 GMT
Yes a third of my Slovakians have defaulted already and a similar number are overdue.
I will not be experimenting with their new markets again and I really hope they are not about to remove the country from the profile bidding, as their latest newsletter seems to suggest.
I think they should trial anything new with their own money before putting investors into very risky and untested new loan areas.
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Post by brettb on Dec 1, 2014 12:05:19 GMT
Thanks everybody. I did a bit more analysis - this time on employment factors. Credit analysis is very much subjective, although various people agree about some factors (e.g. Slovakia being a horrible place to invest!) I'll run the data through SAS when I get some more time. Time will tell if my loan picking skills end up being better than anyone else's...  |
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