cb25
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Post by cb25 on May 13, 2020 17:21:31 GMT
It struck me when I was updating the charts today how Cases wasn't showing the nice steady decline that Deaths appear to. Hope it does soon! is cases "cases appearing at hospital" or number of detected infections ? If its the latter, surely its impacted by the ramp up in testing, so that a much higher percentage of minor or asymptomatic cases are being picked up which previously stayed below the radar ? I believe 'Cases' are now whereever they're detected, whereas in the early days it was hospitals only. Gov.uk shows tests being for Pillar 1 or Pillar 2 (figure we get is the sum total) "Pillar 1: swab testing in PHE labs and NHS hospitals for those with a clinical need, and health and care workers Pillar 2: swab testing for essential workers and their households, as well as other groups that meet the eligibility criteria as set out in government guidance"
You'll notice a big Cases spike on 10 Apr. Worldometers for the UK states, on its April 10 Update, "NOTE: UK Government: "Today’s figures for positive tests have been adjusted to include positive case results from swab testing for key workers and their households (pillar 2). These will be included in the daily figures from today, 10 April. If these results were excluded from the figures, as they have been previously, the daily increase in the number of people who tested positive would have been 5,195. Data on positive case results from swab testing for key workers and their households between 25 March and 8 April is available"
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starfished As you mention, testing has increased, but I think early figures were restricted to hospitals (what they now class as Pillar 1 if I understand it correctly). Deaths in the early days were hospitals only as far as I recall, now it's wider (e.g. includes care homes)
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benaj
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Post by benaj on May 13, 2020 17:30:48 GMT
covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdomIt's true the infection is slowing down. According to IHME, "estimated" daily infection is just under 34,000 people per day, possibly 2-3 million already infected with Covid-19 in the UK. The KCL team has a lower estimate, projecting the current R is below 0.5 and and less than 250,000 confirmed cases. covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-timeI think it's better to track local cases from Gov.uk, even new daily cases in places like Barrow-in-Furness are slowing down rapidly
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starfished
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Post by starfished on May 14, 2020 16:28:56 GMT
[snip]
starfished As you mention, testing has increased, but I think early figures were restricted to hospitals (what they now class as Pillar 1 if I understand it correctly). Deaths in the early days were hospitals only as far as I recall, now it's wider (e.g. includes care homes) Genuinely don't know but I suspect most covid deaths ended up in hospitals? So captured in the earlier data on deaths but not in the cases data. I appreciate care homes have been an exception to that. I guess put another way I wonder what proportion of deaths (pre covid) were hospital deaths and how has that changed since covid.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on May 14, 2020 16:55:11 GMT
[snip]
starfished As you mention, testing has increased, but I think early figures were restricted to hospitals (what they now class as Pillar 1 if I understand it correctly). Deaths in the early days were hospitals only as far as I recall, now it's wider (e.g. includes care homes) Genuinely don't know but I suspect most covid deaths ended up in hospitals? So captured in the earlier data on deaths but not in the cases data. I appreciate care homes have been an exception to that. I guess put another way I wonder what proportion of deaths (pre covid) were hospital deaths and how has that changed since covid. I don't know either. Place I would start is www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths
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benaj
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Post by benaj on May 15, 2020 16:27:06 GMT
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registerme
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Post by registerme on May 15, 2020 16:46:06 GMT
At the moment, the latest R number is a joke from Gov.uk, almost meaningless. Because?
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benaj
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Post by benaj on May 15, 2020 16:48:56 GMT
At the moment, the latest R number is a joke from Gov.uk, almost meaningless. Because? Not showing any changes since start?
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registerme
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Post by registerme on May 15, 2020 17:06:21 GMT
If you do 70mph on a motorway, and you keep doing 70mph on the motorway, the measure won't change. It doesn't mean it's meaningless, does it?
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benaj
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Post by benaj on May 15, 2020 17:14:39 GMT
If you do 70mph on a motorway, and you keep doing 70mph on the motorway, the measure won't change. It doesn't mean it's meaningless, does it? It's meaningless if you don't know if it the car is accelerating or decelerating to avoid the speed camera. It's meaningless if the car is too close to the car in front. It's meaning less if you don't know if the car can change lane. It's meaning less if the weather condition is unknown. It's meaning less if when the driver is not thinking about the breaking distance. The range 0.7-1.0, is it big? Is it meaningful? I have no idea
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registerme
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Post by registerme on May 15, 2020 17:22:44 GMT
The range 0.7-1.0, is it big? Is it meaningful? I have no idea Looked it up? I'm on my phone at the moment (hence the fluffed quote first time round), but when I am back at my desk I'll try and dig out some background material for you.
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Post by dan1 on May 15, 2020 17:41:48 GMT
Dom needs to re-seed his RNG  |
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benaj
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Post by benaj on May 15, 2020 17:53:14 GMT
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Post by bracknellboy on May 15, 2020 17:54:54 GMT
If you do 70mph on a motorway, and you keep doing 70mph on the motorway, the measure won't change. It doesn't mean it's meaningless, does it? to avoid the speed camera. It's meaningless if the car is too close to the car in front. It's meaning less if you don't know if the car can change lane. It's meaning less if the weather condition is unknown. It's meaning less if when the driver is not thinking about the breaking distance. The range 0.7-1.0, is it big? Is it meaningful? I have no idea Uhhh ? I suggest you research - as i look at what is plastered all over the place - as to what it is. you don't even need to know what the actual number was say 6 weeks ago to know that it has significanlty dropped if it is below 1 or in a range below 1.
Its hardly meaningless.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on May 15, 2020 17:58:20 GMT
Let say the government announces the latest R number is 0-5.0 in 2 weeks time, what does it mean?
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Post by Undecided on May 15, 2020 18:08:37 GMT
Interesting that "cases" seems to be slower to go down than fatalities. I thought that "cases" would be the first indicator is a new case is typically a few weeks before it (if it) turns fatal. ![]() I think the “cases” reported by Worldometers are based on the data that the government publishes in its daily slides and I don’t think that is showing anything useful. I think it is showing the number of tests that have been confirmed as positive in the previous 24 hours. These test will have actually been carried out several days before this and I have heard that some results are taking over 2 weeks to come back. Better data, for England at least, is shown below which shows the number of positive tests on the date they were actually carried out. Ignore the last week or two as there is a reporting delay but you can see reported cases in England have been falling steadily since early April even with increased testing. coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#category=regions&map=rate
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