registerme
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Post by registerme on May 15, 2020 18:15:55 GMT
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ilmoro
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'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
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Post by ilmoro on May 15, 2020 18:16:58 GMT
Let say the government announces the latest R number is 0-5.0 in 2 weeks time, what does it mean? It means they have low statistical confidence in a more narrow band. I don't know exactly the criteria they are using but it will relate to the width of the distribution curve of the figures at a certain confidence level eg 90, 95 or 99% confidence.
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Post by dan1 on May 15, 2020 19:38:02 GMT
benaj - I've no idea what the government are saying (they've lost my confidence, upper crl at 0%). However, you could do much worse than keeping an eye on the scientists tracking the Covid-19 metrics such as R (I always saw R as the poor man's SAS, personally ).... London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine: Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (think John Edmunds et al.)epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/united-kingdom/Whizz to Fig 2.B, which appears to show R is between 0.8-1.1 at 90% crl in UKUniversity of Cambridge: MRC Biostatistics Unit COVID-19 Working Groupwww.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/Whizz to the table of Key Values, which lists R between 0.72-0.77 at 95% crl in EnglandNote this text from LSHTM CMMID: Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago.This is one of the reasons why timely testing (return of results within 24hrs) is so important. Delays in getting tests and results back mean you're not looking back two weeks but perhaps three and are dependent on forecasting the increased delay to now.
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Post by dan1 on May 16, 2020 19:05:15 GMT
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registerme
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Post by registerme on May 16, 2020 20:01:40 GMT
That was an interesting read, thanks dan1.
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agent69
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Post by agent69 on May 16, 2020 20:58:47 GMT
Trying to boil down this messy, complicated situation to single numbers and saying whether they’re good or bad is rarely a good idea.
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benaj
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Post by benaj on May 17, 2020 11:29:41 GMT
Really interesting dan1 . To be honest, I don't understand know all the government's objectives of the lock down so it's hard to tell whether a change in R value means the lock down is working. The examples I used below shows the R is falling. So is the lockdown not working? Let's say week 20, 70 infected in the Community with R = 0.7 and 530 infected in care homes with R = 0.9; then Week 22, 50 infected in the Community with R = 0.5 and 400 infected in care homes with R = 0.75 [Week 20] ((70*0.7)+(530*0.9))/600=0.87 [Week 22] ((35*0.5)+(400*0.75))/435=0.73
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on May 17, 2020 16:29:24 GMT
Really interesting dan1 . To be honest, I don't understand know all the government's objectives of the lock down so it's hard to tell whether a change in R value means the lock down is working. The examples I used below shows the R is falling. So is the lockdown not working? Let's say week 20, 70 infected in the Community with R = 0.7 and 530 infected in care homes with R = 0.9; then Week 22, 50 infected in the Community with R = 0.5 and 400 infected in care homes with R = 0.75 [Week 20] ((70*0.7)+(530*0.9))/600=0.87 [Week 22] ((35*0.5)+(400*0.75))/435=0.73 I just look at the daily deaths, if they are a fairly steady number (as at present) I would say R was about 1 a few days ago, assuming number of deaths and number of infections are more or less proportional with deaths lagging by a few days. Keep it simple...
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on May 17, 2020 16:42:42 GMT
Really interesting dan1 . To be honest, I don't understand know all the government's objectives of the lock down so it's hard to tell whether a change in R value means the lock down is working. The examples I used below shows the R is falling. So is the lockdown not working? Let's say week 20, 70 infected in the Community with R = 0.7 and 530 infected in care homes with R = 0.9; then Week 22, 50 infected in the Community with R = 0.5 and 400 infected in care homes with R = 0.75 [Week 20] ((70*0.7)+(530*0.9))/600=0.87 [Week 22] ((35*0.5)+(400*0.75))/435=0.73 I just look at the daily deaths, if they are a fairly steady number (as at present) I would say R was about 1 a few days ago, assuming number of deaths and number of infections are more or less proportional with deaths lagging by a few days. Keep it simple... takes more than a few days to die with COVID-19 - ~3 weeks would be a more likely delay
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Greenwood2
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Post by Greenwood2 on May 17, 2020 19:49:46 GMT
I just look at the daily deaths, if they are a fairly steady number (as at present) I would say R was about 1 a few days ago, assuming number of deaths and number of infections are more or less proportional with deaths lagging by a few days. Keep it simple... takes more than a few days to die with COVID-19 - ~3 weeks would be a more likely delay Doesn't really change the theory though. It doesn't really matter how far deaths lag infections they should line up.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on May 17, 2020 21:52:23 GMT
takes more than a few days to die with COVID-19 - ~3 weeks would be a more likely delay Doesn't really change the theory though. It doesn't really matter how far deaths lag infections they should line up. sure, agreed, but the rate of increase/fall in deaths will tell you R from ~3 weeks ago was just the point I was making
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benaj
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Post by benaj on May 19, 2020 17:38:13 GMT
Added deaths/cases for 19/05/2020: 545/2412 Lowest increase in cases since 26 March Encouraging, the government needs to do a lot more to pass the 5 " tests". Can they really find quick solutions for test 4&5 within a "few" weeks?
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starfished
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Post by starfished on May 19, 2020 21:35:19 GMT
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benaj
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Post by benaj on May 26, 2020 16:03:00 GMT
According to the Alzheimer society, dementia is the top cause of death (12%) in the UK prior the COVID-19 pandemic. www.alzheimers.org.uk/blog/research-dementia-UK-biggest-killer-on-the-riseSince the pandemic started, Covid-19 is now the top killer, 26% of deaths in England & Wales are related to COVID-19, according to ONSFrom week ending 13th March till 15th May (England & Wales) Total deaths: 157,239 Total covid-19 deaths: 41220
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benaj
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Post by benaj on May 27, 2020 14:51:29 GMT
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