alanh
Posts: 556
Likes: 560
|
Post by alanh on Apr 27, 2020 12:53:48 GMT
So the latest numbers from Stuart allow us to see the full extent of the money looking to exit the platform
On the MLA there are £83m of loans up for sale - this is easily obtainable from the loan book download.
Stuarts latest release says "over 75% remain invested in the access accounts" - If it was anything much over 75% he would have no hesitation in using the higher number so its reasonable to assume 25% of the access accounts are exiting. The access account total is £215m, 25% of which is £54m
£83m + £54m = £137m that is the amount of money leaving the platform
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,624
Likes: 6,437
|
Post by registerme on Apr 27, 2020 12:59:29 GMT
It took me less than a second to notice the assumption in that statement above.
EDIT: Seriously, nobody likes where we are at the moment, but very few are taking every last pot shot at AC that they can, and shouting about it from the rooftops. At the least, if you are going to put the boot in, please do it accurately and without the use of assumption.
It's getting old, fast.
|
|
|
Post by stuartassetzcapital on Apr 27, 2020 13:00:25 GMT
Indeed. The mathematics and the assumption behind them are wrong and very substantially overstates the withdrawal requests and double counts an extremely substantial sum overlapping between MLA and AAs.
We will continue to take little part in this board given the wild statements being made by a handful of posters, even in the face of repeatedly stated facts.
|
|
alanh
Posts: 556
Likes: 560
|
Post by alanh on Apr 27, 2020 13:20:49 GMT
No wild statements here at all.
The £83m is directly from the AC system - an easily obtainable number from a loan book download. It is the sum of the loan units available, plain and simple.
The 25% is an assumption based upon "75% remain invested in the access accounts". It is an insult to peoples intelligence to suggest that this number is significantly higher than this because, in a release clearly designed to show the magnitude of the people remaining invested, the release would then have said "90% (or whatever) remain invested".
Mathematics/assumptions wrong? People can make their own mind up.
|
|
registerme
Member of DD Central
Posts: 6,624
Likes: 6,437
|
Post by registerme on Apr 27, 2020 13:23:54 GMT
for sale != leaving the platform
Now I grant you a lot of it probably is, but you are assuming that all of it is.
|
|
ceejay
Posts: 975
Likes: 1,149
|
Post by ceejay on Apr 27, 2020 13:29:12 GMT
No wild statements here at all. The £83m is directly from the AC system - an easily obtainable number from a loan book download. It is the sum of the loan units available, plain and simple. The 25% is an assumption based upon "75% remain invested in the access accounts". It is an insult to peoples intelligence to suggest that this number is significantly higher than this because, in a release clearly designed to show the magnitude of the people remaining invested, the release would then have said "90% (or whatever) remain invested". Mathematics/assumptions wrong? People can make their own mind up. Sum of the loan units in the MLA, yes. But is all that money planning to leave the platform? I for one often have MLA holdings up for sale, while intending to recycle the proceeds elsewhere within the platform. Not to mention loan units made available for sale by the Access accounts...
|
|
lara
Posts: 345
Likes: 300
|
Post by lara on Apr 27, 2020 13:29:59 GMT
Indeed. The mathematics and the assumption behind them are wrong and very substantially overstates the withdrawal requests and double counts an extremely substantial sum overlapping between MLA and AAs. We will continue to take little part in this board given the wild statements being made by a handful of posters, even in the face of repeatedly stated facts. stuartassetzcapital , I would encourage you to continue to actively participate in the forum. Easy interaction with management was one of the factors which gave me confidence in AC when I was a new investor. If anything, your participation is more important than ever at the moment, so that you can set the record straight and help to build back the confidence of those who are the most sceptical of your methods.
|
|
mrsb
Posts: 196
Likes: 102
|
Post by mrsb on Apr 27, 2020 13:31:36 GMT
No wild statements here at all. The £83m is directly from the AC system - an easily obtainable number from a loan book download. It is the sum of the loan units available, plain and simple. The 25% is an assumption based upon "75% remain invested in the access accounts". It is an insult to peoples intelligence to suggest that this number is significantly higher than this because, in a release clearly designed to show the magnitude of the people remaining invested, the release would then have said "90% (or whatever) remain invested". Mathematics/assumptions wrong? People can make their own mind up. That 75% could be the number of investors rather than a monetary value, and could therefore include all the dormant accounts with £19.99 in them. This would therefore skew the range of possible calculation results, giving an upper limit of the best part of 100%. As written, he says "of investors" !! If the exit pool is a small part of the overall, why not publish the number ... and whilst at it, the further tranche figures. Stuarts remarks of "75%" and "substantially overstates" are not helpful!
|
|
cb25
Posts: 3,528
Likes: 2,668
|
Post by cb25 on Apr 27, 2020 13:35:40 GMT
My 30DAA has always been 100% in 'withdrawal pending' mode, as I have always operated a rolling 1/30 "out, use or re-invest, set next withdrawal" each day. Even now, it doesn't mean the whole 30DAA money will be exiting AC.
|
|
ilmoro
Member of DD Central
'Wondering which of the bu***rs to blame, and watching for pigs on the wing.' - Pink Floyd
Posts: 11,329
Likes: 11,549
|
Post by ilmoro on Apr 27, 2020 13:36:38 GMT
So the latest numbers from Stuart allow us to see the full extent of the money looking to exit the platform On the MLA there are £83m of loans up for sale - this is easily obtainable from the loan book download. Stuarts latest release says "over 75% remain invested in the access accounts" - If it was anything much over 75% he would have no hesitation in using the higher number so its reasonable to assume 25% of the access accounts are exiting. The access account total is £215m, 25% of which is £54m £83m + £54m = £137m that is the amount of money leaving the platform Ok. First of all the £83m includes sums being released by the access accounts so its not £83m +£54m, its just £83m. Second much of the £83m has been available since the loans drawdown as the access accounts always make the bulk of their holdings available on the market as part of the day to day account operation so the £83m isn't evidence of the sums looking to leave the platform. Third RMs point - selling isnt leaving Fourth stuarts post references investors, not cash so no value can be extrapolated from that statement as 25% could represent any % of the cash Fifth, withdrawal requests isn't defined, does it include requests to exit the accounts to invest in MLA, requests to exit the QAA to invest in 90DAA/30DAA or any permutation of inter account transfers so again nothing can be extrapolated from this statement Edit Sixth CBs point
|
|
|
Post by nycmw on Apr 27, 2020 13:41:47 GMT
Indeed. The mathematics and the assumption behind them are wrong and very substantially overstates the withdrawal requests and double counts an extremely substantial sum overlapping between MLA and AAs. We will continue to take little part in this board given the wild statements being made by a handful of posters, even in the face of repeatedly stated facts. Stuart - Shame you couldn't reply to emails as quickly as you replied to this thread.
|
|
|
Post by stuartassetzcapital on Apr 27, 2020 13:48:04 GMT
The size of the queue to sell at par value (in the present Access Account withdrawal queue that only permits exits at par value) is somewhat artificial in our view versus the size of any new queue under the new marketplace that is proposed.
That is what really matters in the current market. Measuring the queue at present is relatively meaningless as it is the equivalent of wondering how many stock market investors would like to have access to January's share prices again to sell at, instead of today's far lower share prices as some people panic sell their shares. It is entirely understandable that that impossible sales opportunity at January's prices would create far more wishes to sell than at today's now lower share prices.
We expect that the total of genuine wishes to sell at a price that others are willing to pay for with the current market uncertainties will be a small fraction of the current queue and at the same time offer people who require the money to get out, at a price.
This is how all markets work and we are intending to implement that shortly and will be the first platform to provide that option.
|
|
cb25
Posts: 3,528
Likes: 2,668
|
Post by cb25 on Apr 27, 2020 14:02:34 GMT
I've trimmed my MLA loans a little, but generally with 2% discount at a maximum. I'd be interested to know what others have done wrt MLA discounts and would do with any new system allowing AA discounts.
|
|
alender
Member of DD Central
Posts: 981
Likes: 683
|
Post by alender on Apr 27, 2020 14:29:05 GMT
Not sure how to measure how much money wants to get out but in my case about 1/8 is in the QAA waiting for release, I want it all out but there is no point moving from 30d and 90d to QAA to get £1 a day back as I already will need to wait many years just to clear my QAA. I suspect the amount of money wanting to leave is very substantial.
Stuart please do not start a race to the bottom on exit from the AAs where lenders are having to offer larger and larger discounts to get out. Also letting people jump the queue for some sort of haircut/fee should not keep the rest of the lenders stuck for longer having been forced to purchase more risky loans.
|
|
IFISAcava
Member of DD Central
Posts: 3,692
Likes: 3,018
|
Post by IFISAcava on Apr 27, 2020 14:40:07 GMT
I've trimmed my MLA loans a little, but generally with 2% discount at a maximum. I'd be interested to know what others have done wrt MLA discounts and would do with any new system allowing AA discounts. I've offloaded a bit over 60% of my MLA - but I was quite heavy in AC (my largest platform along with PL). Huge rang of discounts offered depending on loan/market - I have been up to about 10% for some parts of some loans, but plenty has sold/is selling at minimal 0.5% discounts. My XIRR for the ISA account has consequently reduced from around 7.05% to currently 6.31%. Up until the end of the tax year (when the vast majority was sold), my discounts (including a few incurred during the year to sell out quickly from a few dodgy loans) were the equivalent of losing 17.5% of the interest I received in that tax year. Future defaults will need to be factored into that too - the equivalent of about 10% of interest was written off by AC for the year, though some of that likely to be recoverable. I'm selling in dribbles now as less liquidity to mop up it seems. But still liberating a few hundred a week. I don't have much in the access accounts (less than £1K) as I turned off the sweep just in time - so I wouldn't be selling any access money. I'd consider buying at the right discount though. However, I reckon you'd want a projected IRR into double figures to take on access account debt with such reduced liquidity.
|
|