cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 29, 2020 17:22:54 GMT
Why don't you start a poll? I'm new here and would more than likely make a complete hash of that!! Possibly someone else could.....? Just do 'Create Thread' as you did for this one and you'll notice an "Add Poll" option to the right of the Subject line.
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Post by simons on Apr 29, 2020 17:37:21 GMT
I'm new here and would more than likely make a complete hash of that!! Possibly someone else could.....? Just do 'Create Thread' as you did for this one and you'll notice an "Add Poll" option to the right of the Subject line. Done. Thanks for the help
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benaj
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Post by benaj on Apr 29, 2020 17:54:15 GMT
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Post by davee39 on Apr 29, 2020 18:29:57 GMT
My understanding of the Access accounts (Before 12th March).
Anyone adding money to the account would acquire a number of suspended loans, anyone selling out would sell a share of suspended loans. 'Tradeable' suspended loans were covered by 'Ring Fenced' provision fund cash to provide cover for expected losses on these loans. The analysis of impaired loans is therefore not a good guide to expected losses.
Most loans seem to be at an LTV of about 70%, so lenders would more or less break even on a 30% downgrade to Asset Value.
The worst affected loans are likely to be those to the leisure sector - hotels and pubs. A glut of these closing for good and appearing on the market could slash asset values by 50%, with losses to lenders perhaps 20 to 30%.
Property developments might fall by 10 to 20% resulting in eventual full payout if the developments are completed. Incomplete developments going into administration could see almost total loss.
So what level of discount would make buying into the access accounts attractive? we will soon find out - I suspect buying at a 20% discount could be rewarding over a two to three year period, and I expect there will be willing sellers and buyers at that sort of level.
Of course, as a non expert, I could be completely wrong and I am not offering advice, only opinions.
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 29, 2020 18:53:48 GMT
With this poll currently showing 1 lender expecting 50%+ losses, I guess we might see some really good offers if/when the access accounts secondary market is delivered. After all, if that lender is expecting a loss of 50%+, I'm guessing they'd be willing to put their AA money up for sale at (say) 30% discount. |
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Post by simons on Apr 29, 2020 19:25:01 GMT
AC will be publishing their first outcome statement by 31st July so let's see what this says, albeit as usual they stagger any reports so it will be for the period to 31st March. AC will also publish the updated PF stats and Defaults/Losses stats for end of April in June usually so this will give another AC snapshot view. I was hoping to submit the info sooner rather than later, but thanks for this. I am not sure what an "outcome statement" is? Also I have been digging around to find the PF stats but can only find some numbers that are 3 months out of date. Where can I find the latest figures?
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Post by tommycatz on Apr 29, 2020 21:39:34 GMT
I've already managed to extract 4% from RS,LW and AC and I was late to react. I expect some loans to be stuck in deadlock like the Scottish golf course.
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IFISAcava
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Post by IFISAcava on Apr 29, 2020 22:11:20 GMT
With this poll currently showing 1 lender expecting 50%+ losses, I guess we might see some really good offers if/when the access accounts secondary market is delivered. After all, if that lender is expecting a loss of 50%+, I'm guessing they'd be willing to put their AA money up for sale at (say) 30% discount. hand bitten off
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Post by Ace on Apr 29, 2020 22:37:13 GMT
With this poll currently showing 1 lender expecting 50%+ losses, I guess we might see some really good offers if/when the access accounts secondary market is delivered. After all, if that lender is expecting a loss of 50%+, I'm guessing they'd be willing to put their AA money up for sale at (say) 30% discount. Given that over 50% of voters expect zero loss, why would anyone need to offer anywhere near a 30% discount? Presumably hands would be bitten of at 10%.
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corto
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Post by corto on Apr 29, 2020 23:40:06 GMT
I’m allowing for a 90% loss. Any less is a bonus. Just preparing myself for the worst. 90% as I think maybe 10% will get returned if I’m lucky in a reasonable time but as I can in no way rely on the rest or access it any time soon I’m writing it off when I update my spreadsheet each week of all my various investments and savings accounts. I hope I’m being drastically over pessimistic but at least I shouldn’t be further disappointed. My total in Assetz is just £6300. Had this happened 6 months ago I would have had over £80,000 trapped so I feel very lucky. Are you sure you understood the question of the OP? If she puts 90% losses into her tax return for the year, that may cause 5+ years of effort to correct in subsequent years. Losses claimed now, that are recovered later, need to be reported This does not apply to ISAs or SIPPs afaik
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ian
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Post by ian on Apr 30, 2020 7:00:08 GMT
I will attempt to answer this, as objectively as I can, worst case scenario (with explanations) - Note this only applies to the access accounts. I would hope Stuart@assetzcapital will populate my assumptions with actual numbers.
Generally I would imagine the average LTV is booked @ circa 60% so one might imagine there is a good 10% headroom should things go wrong.
* That said if I take the example of defaulted loan #330 - Potential value upon completion - £1.8m - £1.95m valued @ £1.25m. Assetz lent £960k 54% LTV. £583k 32.4% was recovered.
So assuming average LTV is 60% - if there are questionable valuations & admin fees, let’s assume 50% of Equity is recoverable: 30% assuming average 60% LTV, so 50% of your £200k = £100k. I add 2 major caveats 1. These are not normal market circumstances, and 2. This assumes recovery is distributed fairly and pro-rata to your investment.
Please let me now explain how your 50% payout / £100k may become significantly less.
Please bear with me :-
These are huge assumptions (Again I urge Stuart will have already modelled this, please populate with real numbers & share it with us)
Loan book is circa £400m - 50% of funding comes from 2 to 5 institutional investors investing collectively circa £200m. If institutional investors don’t have priority; that is a huge if, we can ignore influence on the access accounts.
There are probably about 20,000 ‘non active’ investors with average circa 1k invested.
Let’s assume there are circa 5000 active retail investors (based on forbearance vote) investing on average £35k each. £200m of loans largely funded by circa 5000 active investors - probably 500 investors with over £100k (ave £150k); 1000 investors with over £50k (ave £75k); 1000 investing between £50k & £10k (ave £20k) with the balance of 2500 investors holding on average £2.5k.
If the prorata withdrawals were in play or the company was in administration you would get 50% of your money £100k.
However under the present prejudicial system, which unfairly discriminates against larger investors like you, you would see in time; (IF my numbers anywhere near the mark) on an equal pay out, with all investors equally invested in each of the 3 access accounts; Investors with circa less than £50k get all their money back. At that point, the money will run out and further payments to larger investors like you will cease. Most investors (numerically) will get a 100% return - you might receive circa 25% of your £200k investment.
Some investors may believe, as Assetz management probably do that larger investors are wealthier than smaller investors, and they should subsidise smaller investors. That’s not necessarily correct. I may be worth £50m largely investing in property & equites. I may have 5 accounts with £20k in each in them. A pensioner who can’t afford a BTL and doesn’t trust the stock market, may have invested £100k in one account (40% of his life savings) I will get out ok - they will lose 50% of their money!
Please be assured this assumes 100% defaults, a doomsday scenario. The administrators would be likely to be called in prior to this, and whilst they will bleed the pot dry, they will replace discriminatory withdrawal system, with a prorata process. That said those with over £100k invested you may be best served investing a few thousand in legal fees in order to attempt to get AC to cease discriminatory payments??
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cb25
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Post by cb25 on Apr 30, 2020 7:20:22 GMT
With this poll currently showing 1 lender expecting 50%+ losses, I guess we might see some really good offers if/when the access accounts secondary market is delivered. After all, if that lender is expecting a loss of 50%+, I'm guessing they'd be willing to put their AA money up for sale at (say) 30% discount. Given that over 50% of voters expect zero loss, why would anyone need to offer anywhere near a 30% discount? Presumably hands would be bitten of at 10%. At the time of this update, out of 51 votes there are now 6 lenders expecting 50%+ losses and a total of 18 lenders expecting 10%+ losses, so it would depend how desperate the 6 were to get into cash. Clearly they could go with "I'll try 5% discount for a week, see what happens, then 10% if necessary....", but they might get stuck in a queue of low discounts and worry that AC would go belly up before they got out.
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alender
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Post by alender on Apr 30, 2020 8:36:21 GMT
With this poll currently showing 1 lender expecting 50%+ losses, I guess we might see some really good offers if/when the access accounts secondary market is delivered. After all, if that lender is expecting a loss of 50%+, I'm guessing they'd be willing to put their AA money up for sale at (say) 30% discount. Given that over 50% of voters expect zero loss, why would anyone need to offer anywhere near a 30% discount? Presumably hands would be bitten of at 10%. There are many factors that will determine the discount, markets rarely price on what is the perceive true value, just take a look at discount/premium for closed end investment trusts, PSSL and VSL are probably the closest to traded AAs
The factors are
Confidence
How much is up for sale
How much money is waiting to buy
For buyers, trend (the tend is your friend), is it going up must get in quick (FOMO), it is going down, shall I hold and wait for a lower price.
For sellers, what is on the market and the discount, if there is a huge amount at 20% and you must raise some cash you will place on at 21%
Sellers, may view 20% discount is the correct value but they think it is worth for safety and being able to sleep at night to drop below a 20% to get out while they can.
Flipping, make a profit, get out wait for reversal
Are there are places to put you money for better returns.
The payment system which means small holders get out with 100% or close to 100% par value. Open accounts for your spouse, children etc and play the system
Those not wishing to get out now ask for repayments and/or interest not to be reinvested as they can buy back in at discount.
. . . . . . .
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ian
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Post by ian on Apr 30, 2020 8:57:23 GMT
Given that over 50% of voters expect zero loss, why would anyone need to offer anywhere near a 30% discount? Presumably hands would be bitten of at 10%. There are many factors that will determine the discount, markets rarely price on what is the perceive true value, just take a look at discount/premium for closed end investment trusts, PSSL and VSL are probably the closest to traded AAs
The factors are
Confidence
How much is up for sale
How much money is waiting to buy
For buyers, trend (the tend is your friend), is it going up must get in quick (FOMO), it is going down, shall I hold and wait for a lower price.
For sellers, what is on the market and the discount, if there is a huge amount at 20% and you must raise some cash you will place on at 21%
Sellers, may view 20% discount is the correct value but they think it is worth for safety and being able to sleep at night to drop below a 20% to get out while they can.
Flipping, make a profit, get out wait for reversal
Are there are places to put you money for better returns.
The payment system which means small holders get out with 100% or close to 100% par value. Open accounts for your spouse, children etc and play the system
Those not wishing to get out now ask for repayments and/or interest not to be reinvested as they can buy back in at discount.
. . . . . . .
Good call mate just busy opening 200 new email accounts to buy my access account funds with - then given the disparate nature of my investment holdings I will be out in July. Seriously, when oh when are management going to do the right and proper thing  The only other fair alternative to pro-rata imho is to give additional interest as compensation (ie 10% interest) for all account holders with in excess of say £50k invested. That might encourage investment.
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Post by Ace on Apr 30, 2020 9:05:25 GMT
Given that over 50% of voters expect zero loss, why would anyone need to offer anywhere near a 30% discount? Presumably hands would be bitten of at 10%. There are many factors that will determine the discount, markets rarely price on what is the perceive true value, just take a look at discount/premium for closed end investment trusts, PSSL and VSL are probably the closest to traded AAs
The factors are
Confidence
How much is up for sale
How much money is waiting to buy
For buyers, trend (the tend is your friend), is it going up must get in quick (FOMO), it is going down, shall I hold and wait for a lower price.
For sellers, what is on the market and the discount, if there is a huge amount at 20% and you must raise some cash you will place on at 21%
Sellers, may view 20% discount is the correct value but they think it is worth for safety and being able to sleep at night to drop below a 20% to get out while they can.
Flipping, make a profit, get out wait for reversal
Are there are places to put you money for better returns.
The payment system which means small holders get out with 100% or close to 100% par value. Open accounts for your spouse, children etc and play the system
Those not wishing to get out now ask for repayments and/or interest not to be reinvested as they can buy back in at discount.
. . . . . . .
I agree that they are all factors that will influence the price, I'm just not expecting the need or desire to offer such large discounts. Time will tell. We're all just guessing at this stage. I will certainly be a buyer if the discounts are in to double digit percentages, but it won't be sufficient to satisfy retreating whales.
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The only other fair alternative to pro-rata imho is to give additional interest as compensation (ie 10% interest) for all account holders with in excess of say £50k invested. That might encourage investment.